Successful projection of the distribution of surface temperature change increases our confidence in climate models. Here we evaluate projections of global warming from almost 30 years ago using the observations made during the past half century.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
27,99 € / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
274,03 € per year
only 22,84 € per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on SpringerLink
- Instant access to the full article PDF.
39,95 €
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout



References
Bretherton, F. P., Bryan, K. & Woods, J. D. in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephraums, J. J.) 173–193 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).
Rahmstorf, S., Foster, G. & Cazenave, A. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 044035 (2012).
Frame D. J. & Stone, D. A. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 357–359 (2013).
Le Treut, H. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 93–128 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
Stouffer, R. J., Manabe, S. & Bryan, K. Nature 342, 660–662 (1989).
Manabe, S., Stouffer, R. J., Spelman, M. J. & Bryan, K. J. Clim. 4, 785–818 (1991).
Manabe, S., Spelman, M. J. & Stouffer, R. J. J. Clim. 5, 105–126 (1992).
Schimel, D. et al. in Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) 65–132 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1995).
Stouffer, R. J. & Manabe, S. J. Clim. 12, 2224–2237 (1999).
Bindoff, N. L. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 867–952 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
Joshi, M. M., Lambert, F. H. & Webb, M. J. Clim. Dynam. 41, 1853–1869 (2013).
Rahmstorf, S. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 475–480 (2015).
Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1029–1136 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
Manabe, S., Ploshay, J. & Lau, N.-C. J. Clim. 24, 3817–3821 (2011).
Manabe, S. & Stouffer, R. J. J. Geophys. Res. 85, 5529–5554 (1980).
Held, I. M. Icarus 50, 449–461 (1982).
Rhein, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 255–316 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D08101 (2012).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
R.J.S and S.M. equally participated in all aspects of this work.
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Stouffer, R., Manabe, S. Assessing temperature pattern projections made in 1989. Nature Clim Change 7, 163–165 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3224
Published:
Issue date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3224