Allen Mueller, CFA, CFP®

If you don’t understand the capital stack, you’re playing CRE with half the playbook missing. Senior debt: cheapest capital, most control. Mezz debt: fills the gap, but costly. Preferred equity: hybrid, flexible, powerful. Common equity: most risk, biggest upside. Each layer carries its own risk and reward. Once you see the stack, you’ll stop thinking about $200K duplexes and start thinking about $20M complexes. Always remember - great deals aren't found, they're created!

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The 6-month outlook component of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index has slid by 42.1 points over past two months … only other time there has been a larger move to downside was during depths of pandemic  

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I'll repeat what I said yesterday "Economic data is now very stale. Focus on where you think the data is going not where it is now". There was a decent acceleration in cyclical job growth in March. It was notable that government jobs overall increased with only a 4k decline in Federal jobs being offset by gains in state and local government employment. But government job cuts were never the main risk to the economic outlook. Unfortunately, this rise in cyclical jobs tells us nothing about what the jobs numbers will look like in the coming months, post tariffs. Driving through the rear-view mirror is dangerous (when not reversing) at the best of times, in times like this where there are now massive potholes in the road ahead, it could be very unwise indeed. The tariff announcement increases the risks of a recession in the coming months, particularly in Europe and the UK but also in the US.

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Landman is back. And beneath the drama is a multi-billion-dollar real estate play that most investors don’t understand. Here’s how to make money as a Landman: A landman's job: secure oil and gas rights from landowners. They negotiate leases that give oil companies the right to drill. In exchange, landowners get: • Upfront bonus: $500-$7,500 per acre • Delay rentals: $5-$25 per acre annually • Production royalty: 18.75%-25% of gross revenue The landman's commission? Roughly 10% of the lease bonus. The aggregation play: Oil companies don't want 40-acre parcels. They want 640-2,000 acre blocks for shared infrastructure. The aggregation premium is real. Scattered 1,000 acres might lease for $2M. That same acreage, if contiguous, could command $4-5M. Example: A Texas landman aggregated 1,500 acres in Reeves County in 2018. Paid $2M. 6 months later, sold to a major operator for $5.6M: near-3X arbitrage from aggregation value alone. Aggregation premiums range 20-100% depending on geology and operator interest. The OpCo-PropCo structure: PropCo holds mineral rights and leases: • 20-30 year royalty streams • Trades at 4-8X annual cash flow OpCo manages the leasing operation: • Upfront commissions • Operational fees (2-5%) and override interests Two revenue streams: immediate fees and long-term royalties. The financing angle: Smaller aggregators use hard money at 12-18% interest. When oil drops below $50/barrel, leveraged positions face distress. That's when private equity and family offices circle. During shale booms, mineral funds earned IRRs of 25-40% on aggregation flips. As of 2025, over $1.5B of PE capital is chasing mineral rights deals annually. The takeaway: Controlling scarce land creates leverage in capital-intensive industries. Same principle applies for: • Logistics sites near ports • Data center land in AI corridors • Resort land in emerging destinations The asset that matters most is always the one in limited supply. Control the dirt. Leverage the operators.

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💼 Shell Posts $4.3B in Q2 Earnings, Launches $3.5B Buyback. Despite softer oil and gas prices, Shell delivered $4.3B in Q2 earnings, beating market expectations. Backed by $11.9 billion in cash flow, the company announced a $3.5 billion share buyback, reinforcing confidence in its long-term strategy. From LNG Canada’s first cargo to deepwater project expansions, Shell continues to strike a balance between capital discipline and strategic growth, demonstrating resilience in a volatile market. #Shell #Earnings #Energy #OilAndGas #Buyback #Investing #Sustainability #Markets

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In August, Dakota tracked $19B across 171 commitments from 41 pension funds and endowments. Largest Allocators Florida State Board of Administration – $6.4B New Mexico State Investment Council – $2.3B Virginia Retirement System – $1.8B Where the Money Went Private Equity: $4.2B (30.4%) – Buyouts dominated ($3.1B across 34 funds) with allocations ranging from lower middle market to large buyout strategies. Private Credit: $5.7B (17.5%) – Opportunistic credit ($2.1B) and direct lending ($1.2B) continued to draw attention, highlighting demand for flexible yield. Private Real Estate: $4.1B (22.8%) – Opportunistic and value-add strategies led with $3.4B Real Assets/Infrastructure: $2.6B (11.7%) – Infrastructure dominated with $2.4B, showing strong allocator interest in long-term, inflation-linked assets. Venture Capital: $1.3B (13.5%) – Spread across 23 funds, indicating allocators are still selectively backing innovation. Largest Single Commitments • CPP Investments – Japan DC Partners I (Real Estate): $1.33B • Florida SBA – Florida Gulfcoast Partners Multi-Asset Credit (Private Credit): $900M • Florida SBA – Tidewater Partners MAC Fund (Private Credit): $900M • LifeSight – Schroders Greencoat Renewables LTAF (Real Assets): $605M Key Takeaways 1) Private credit led the month at $5.7B, with opportunistic strategies and direct lending driving activity. 2) Opportunistic/value-add real estate is still hot, accounting for $3.4B in August commitments. 3) Infrastructure allocations remain steady, with more than $2.4B deployed into long-duration, inflation-hedging assets. July vs. August Context Total commitments rebounded to $19B in August, up from $9.7B in July (but still below June’s $36B). Private credit surged (from $1.7B in July to $5.7B in August). Venture capital held steady, with selective allocations continuing at ~13% of commitments. Allocations were again more balanced across asset classes, reflecting a diversified allocator mindset. For asset managers and consultants, August shows allocators leaning into private credit and opportunistic real estate while maintaining consistent exposure across private equity, infrastructure, and venture.

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Money stress doesn’t go away with higher income. It just takes on a different shape. I work with a lot of engineers and oil & gas professionals who are doing objectively well. Strong salaries. Maxed-out 401(k)s. Solid savings. Responsible decisions. They’re not worried about paying bills. But in a cyclical industry, they do wonder how stable their whole lifestyle really is. Income tied to one employer. Investments heavily exposed to public markets. A lifestyle that never felt reckless, but expanded gradually. College, aging parents, taxes… all taking a slice. They’re not asking, “Am I making enough?” They’re asking, “How much of this depends on everything going right? And what happens if something shifts?” It's not anxiety. It’s awareness. And awareness is where disciplined investing starts. If any of this feels familiar, you’re not behind. You’ve just reached the stage where the balance in your portfolio needs to be intentional.

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Is $5.90 Copper 2025 Akin to 2008's $147 Crude Oil, $4 Gasoline? Spiking US-traded copper shows eerie similarities to the peaks in crude oil and gasoline prices from July 2008. It was 17 years ago that the Great Recession was fueled by the national average gasoline price surpassing $4 a gallon for the first time. Copper approaching $6 a pound may mirror WTI crude's $147 per barrel apex in 2008. Full report on the Bloomberg terminal here: https://lnkd.in/dYxqWmKq {BI COMD} #copper #crudeoil #stockmarket Bloomberg Intelligence

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Amid a thinning of undocumented farm labor, Raymond Robertson, a labor economist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government, who has advised U.S. agencies on trade and labor policy, predicts produce prices could spike as much as 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts begin.

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Total U.S. petroleum liquids production (including crude, NGLs, biofuels) in 2025 is estimated at over 22 million b/d. That's ~20% of total global production. Who gets hurt the most with lower prices? The no. 2 producer sits at half of US production levels. Note: US is now a net exporter.

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If I see one more post or article about a "loophole" in the tax code that "allows you to save tens of thousands of dollars on your tax bill," that ends up being about Bonus Depreciation or a Section 179 Deduction, I am going to absolutely lose my mind. Now, don't get me wrong; for the right business owner in the right situation, these accelerated depreciation methods are pretty awesome. And it's entirely true that, compared to regular straight-line depreciation, electing to use Bonus depreciation and/or a Section 179 Deduction can lower your taxes in a meaningful way. But... First of all, these aren't loopholes. They're straightforward applications of the tax code being used exactly as intended. Second, almost none of these posts/articles mention that the increased tax deductions/lower taxes today come, all things equal, at the expense of lower tax deductions/higher taxes in the future. So, in many circumstances, accelerated depreciation is really more a time-value-of-money play than anything (which, of course, has value, but not AS much as getting a tax break that would otherwise never be available). Third, and most importantly, on their own, accelerated depreciation methods don't allow individuals to "save" anything, because to use them, they require the PURCHASE of a qualifying asset. The cost of buying that asset will exceed any potential tax savings from Bonus Depreciation/179 Deduction. In the end, accelerated depreciation methods are probably best thought of in a manner similar to that of a sale at the store. If you were planning to buy something already, or were on the fence, then the sale can make now a pretty compelling time to make your purchase. But if you weren't already thinking about the purchase, you probably shouldn't let the fact that it's on sale change your decision. I mean, even if I see cat food on sale for 90% off, I'm not buying it. I don't have a cat. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

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Finding a new mineral deposit costs around $218m in the US -- Durin is cutting that by 50-75% Discovering these mineral deposits requires a team of 3, highly paid engineers and geologists. Usually they operate one rig -- Durin wants to see that same team operating up to 5 autonomous rigs. This, paired with the data collection they believe they can extend the life of each rig massively and rule out different areas faster. These two things together would massively reduce cost AND time to find these mineral deposits -- the hardest part about building a new mine. If you'd like a peak into the future, check out today's episode with Ted Feldmann, CEO and Founder of Durin Mining. Aside from theri tech, he shares insights around... -- The tailwinds for mining in the US -- How to raise from climate and non climate VCs alike -- How they have attracted an incredible team in a short period of time And much more. Listen to / watch the full episode on Substack today! (link in the comments) 👇 PS: shoutout to ErthTech Talent for making this show possible -- reach out to them (me haha) if you're a clean tech startup who needs the right talent, and you don't want to pay an overpriced search firm. #durin #mining #criticalminerals #miningexploration #automation

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Every operator needs a share class for larger checks. If you don't have one, you are leaving money on the table. Here's why: If you don’t build an economic class of shares for $500K–$2M+ checks, you’re making it impossible for capital aggregators, SPVs, and fund-to-fund allocators to back your deals and still earn within their business. Why you need to build this in: - Bigger checks require better economics - allocators can't deploy into your deal if there's nothing in it for them. They need economics (fee share / carry share / enhanced equity class) that makes the effort worthwhile - Sophisticated investors put a value on terms and structures -One $2M check beats twenty $100K checks - higher likelihood of getting the deal done How it changes your business: - Raise velocity - the difference between closing in 2 weeks vs. 2 months often comes down to one anchor investor - New distribution channels - SPVs, fund of funds, family offices, RIAs can now all participate - You stop looking like a small operator and start looking like a firm that understands how capital works Bonus: You can do away with the 14 side letters you created to get your deal done with share classes that cover the exact same thing AND increase your transparency Operators who nail it aren't just good at finding and operating deals They're good at making it easy for capital to say yes to working with them ✚ Follow Sam Silverman and subscribe to the newsletter for deal strategy, fund structuring + the Mechanics of Money inside private markets

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Mining stocks are likely overreacting today, in my view.   Put loosely, these companies are effectively printing money at current gold prices. Yes, mining stocks have performed incredibly well recently, but the aggregate free cash flow of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver index has surged 11x. In short, fundamentals have far outpaced the rally, leaving these stocks even more undervalued than before.

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India is importing less Russian oil. And the numbers explain why. Imports peaked in November and dropped sharply in December. From ~1.84 million bpd to ~1.15 million bpd. That’s a ~35% fall in one month. This wasn’t accidental. In August, Donald Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Indian exports, with 25% directly linked to Russian oil purchases. Oil became part of trade negotiations. Soon after, Reliance Industries, India’s largest private refiner, confirmed it has stopped receiving Russian crude and expects zero deliveries in January. What does this imply? • Reduced use of discounted Russian crude • Higher sourcing costs for export-oriented refiners • Private refiners adjusting faster than state-owned ones • Energy buying decisions now tied to trade talks What happens next? If a US–India trade deal progresses, Russian oil imports may stay capped or fall further. If talks stall, Imports could stabilise at lower levels rather than reverse. Either way, oil is no longer just an energy decision. It’s now part of the trade equation. The question is: Will India trade cheap barrels for tariff relief?

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