The Cipher Brief

I'm looking forward to this Vanderbilt University Institute of National Security session as well as all of the other expert-level conversations taking place over the next two days in Nashville, led by General Paul M. Nakasone. Expertise matters so much and it's an honor to be onstage with this group in particular. (The last time I saw Frederick Kagan was when he and Kimberly Kagan and Brad Christian and I were on the train leaving Ukraine with General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.). If you're not already following the excellent work that Fred and Kim and their team are doing at the Institute for the Study of War - you're missing a big piece of the puzzle.) Predicting the future of national security is hard but I'm incredibly interested in what you think. Comment or DM me.

For all of The Cipher Brief Experts we work with day in and day out who help put context around global events - particularly those who are working at the edge of technology - we're offering some brand new and really incredible opportunities for brand exposure at this year's Cipher Brief Threat Conference. If you're a Cipher Brief Expert and you're running your own consulting firm or if you're advising boards or helping technology companies bring their solutions to the conversation, let's get you here: www.tcbconference.com

I remember seeing this beautiful hallway that leads to a series of meeting rooms (including the room that hosted a G8 Summit so long ago that Russia was still invited) - when General Jack Keane invited me to meet a few national security leaders who were sharing their thoughts as I prepared to launch The Cipher Brief. That was more than ten years ago and today, the world is SO different. Technology is now driving mission success and the private sector is bringing incredible innovation to meet the demand. Never in my memory has there been a more consequential time to team with organizations that are obsessed with outcomes. Your time matters. Spend it with people who are delivering mission advantage in the world of national security. The Cipher Brief Threat Conference Room Block is now open for registered guests. Rooms will go quickly. If you need information on how to attend: www.tcbconference.com The world may be changing but the hallway is still beautiful.

A fragile pause. A resilient adversary. A strategic bill coming due. Today’s Open Source Report underscores a hard truth: the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire may buy time - but it doesn’t solve the underlying problem. It may actually deepen it. Here’s what matters: Deterrence didn’t break Tehran. Despite sustained strikes, Iran’s regime remains intact - and may emerge more hardened, more centralized, and more dangerous. Strategic costs are mounting. Billions spent, stockpiles depleted, and readiness strained - while China and Russia quietly gain advantage. Allies are uneasy. From NATO friction to legal concerns over targeting rhetoric, U.S. credibility is under pressure. The battlefield is expanding. From Libya’s shadow fleet attacks to cyber and drone warfare, this is no longer a regional fight - it’s a global one. Some analysts warn: tactical wins could mask long term challenges. This is the moment to ask - what does success actually look like? Because right now, the answer is far from clear. Get the full breakdown, expert insights, and what comes next in today’s Global Intelligence Report. 👉 Read more: https://lnkd.in/eFanMySw #NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #Iran #Defense #Intelligence #CyberSecurity #GlobalRisk #CipherBrief

NEW EPISODE: Inside Russian Intelligence: CIA Insider on Putin’s Playbook, Ukraine & the Next War Former CIA Senior Operations Officer Sean Wiswesser joins STATE SECRETS to break down how Russian intelligence really operates - and why the threat is more serious than most Americans understand. Drawing on decades of experience targeting Moscow’s intelligence services, Wiswesser explains how Russia blends Cold War tradecraft with modern tools like cyber operations, AI-driven influence campaigns, and hybrid warfare. From election interference to the war in Ukraine, he outlines how the Kremlin is working to weaken the United States and its allies - often below the threshold of open conflict. The conversation also explores Russia’s relationship with Iran, the evolution of espionage tactics, and why intelligence - not just military force - will define the next global conflict. If you want to understand how adversaries operate in the gray zone - and what it means for U.S. national security - this is a conversation you don’t want to miss. 00:00 – Intro: Inside Russian Intelligence 01:30 – Russia, Iran, and Strategic Interests 05:30 – How Russian Intelligence Really Works 10:30 – Election Interference & “Active Measures” 16:00 – Cold War Tradecraft vs Modern Tech 20:30 – Ukraine War: Intelligence Failures & Adaptation 26:30 – Why Americans Misunderstand the Threat 31:00 – Is the U.S. Losing the Information War? 34:30 – Final Thoughts: The Next Conflict WATCH HERE: https://lnkd.in/eqX4EBWp

After Maduro’s removal, Washington is pursuing stability in Venezuela—but at a cost. To secure order and reopen the country to investment, the U.S. is now engaging with powerful regime insiders once tied to corruption, narcotrafficking, and foreign adversaries. The strategy may be delivering early results—but it raises serious national security questions about long-term risks, malign influence, and whether stability built on compromised actors can hold. Subscribers+ get the full analysis shaping U.S. policy decisions. https://lnkd.in/eaSM-Vyy

My latest take published on The Cipher Brief. Artificial intelligence is rapidly being used to analyse drone footage, identify targets, and improve battlefield coordination. In several cases, drones costing only a few thousand dollars have damaged tanks and military equipment worth millions. This growing gap between cost and impact is reshaping the economics of modern warfare where cheap airpower can now impose extremely expensive losses on conventional forces.

Former #CIA Chiefs of Station Ralph Goff Goff and Glenn Corn have spent a lot of time on the ground in Ukraine. In this State Secrets podcast episode, they share details on what they’re seeing there now that isn’t making the headlines. Get the raw reporting with Goff and Corn in this special edition of the #StateSecretsPodcast. Suzanne Kelly https://lnkd.in/gvtUZTwA

175K views and climbing -- One of the hundreds who commented on The Cipher Brief's interview with General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.) from Munich described it as "More informative 26 mins than most media coverage". #thecipherbrief #nationalsecurity #expertisematters