Earth Security reposted this
Something is happening that the news cycle on global energy geopolitics is not picking up. Almost 10 years ago, I wrote in an op-ed for the Financial Times that China's Belt and Road Initiative could re-shape energy geopolitics through a green super-grid across Asia — a United Renewable Energy System for the 21st century. A decade on, with the geopolitics of the energy transition rapidly shifting, I went back for an update. The findings are striking. Inside China, the vision has been executed with extraordinary scale. 45 ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission projects are now operational. In 2024 alone, those lines carried 420 billion kWh of clean energy — a 70% rise in five years. China has built the largest high-voltage grid in human history, and it continues to accelerate. But the international version — the cross-border super grid I wrote about — has fractured. The Northeast Asia Super Grid coalition that included China, Japan, South Korea and Russia is effectively dead. Russia became a toxic partner after 2022. Japan's Renewable Energy Institute exited GEIDCO (the China-led coordinating body) in March 2024, explicitly citing "changes in the international geopolitical situation." Japan and South Korea realigned with the US, for now. The first multilateral power trade in Southeast Asia only happened in 2022 — 100 megawatts of Laos hydropower reaching Singapore via Thailand and Malaysia. Progress is real, but it is incremental and bilateral, not the transformative regional integration the vision promised. The geopolitics of the energy transition are indeed bifurcating. On one side: a Chinese-led grid technology standard, advancing through BRI corridors in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Africa. On the other: a US/EU-aligned world of energy security concerns, grid sovereignty anxiety, and rival frameworks like India's One Sun One World One Grid. This bifurcation shapes new regional investment alliances. The technology works. The global politics, more than ever, do not. Attaching the original FT piece below — curious to hear how others see the changes happening, the role that electricity transmission infrastructure has in the transition and global security. Resilience priorities mean the climate transition is not dead — it just needs to be reframed for an era of insecurity. #EnergyGeopolitics #EnergyTransition #ResilienceCapital Earth Security