Seventy-two hours after Anthropic shipped Fable 5 and Mythos 5, its strongest models yet, the US government locked out every foreign national, reportedly including Andrej Karpathy, who couldn’t touch the model he was hired to build. With no way to filter by nationality in real time, Anthropic pulled the models for everyone, with 90 min notice. Turns out, even the lab that builds the thing doesn’t fully control when it runs.
Which is Satya Nadella’s point exactly. If you can’t swap out the model underneath you without losing the expertise you’ve built, you don’t own intelligence, you rent it. Most companies are renting. This fortnight, they found out what that actually costs.
Open source is the obvious fix here, and there's good news on that front. MiniMax M3 unified frontier coding, a 1M-token context, and multimodality in one open model. Cohere shipped a frontier-class enterprise MoE under Apache 2.0, runnable on two H100s. The closer the open models get, the harder it is to justify renting at all.
The EU banned Claude from parts of its public sector under the AI Act, handing Mistral a tailwind it could never have bought, right as it stands up a 13,800-GPU data center of its own.
Meanwhile, SpaceX walked into its IPO with $2.17B in committed monthly compute from exactly two tenants, Google and Anthropic, then bought Cursor for $60B in stock. Everyone is building on someone else’s foundation. The only question left is whose, for how much, and who can switch it off.
More context, links, and charts below.