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Protective Population Behavior Change in Outbreaks of Emerging Infectious Disease

View ORCID ProfileEvans K. Lodge, Annakate M. Schatz, John M. Drake
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.27.921536
Evans K. Lodge
1Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
2School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
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  • ORCID record for Evans K. Lodge
Annakate M. Schatz
3Odum School of Ecology and Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States
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John M. Drake
3Odum School of Ecology and Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States
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  • For correspondence: john{at}drakeresearchlab.com
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ABSTRACT

During outbreaks of emerging infections, the lack of effective drugs and vaccines increases reliance on non-pharmacologic public health interventions and behavior change to limit human-to-human transmission. Interventions that increase the speed with which infected individuals remove themselves from the susceptible population are paramount, particularly isolation and hospitalization. Ebola virus disease (EVD), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) are zoonotic viruses that have caused significant recent outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission. This investigation quantified changing mean removal rates (MRR) and days from symptom onset to hospitalization (DSOH) of infected individuals from the population in seven different outbreaks of EVD, SARS, and MERS, to test for statistically significant differences in these metrics between outbreaks. We found that epidemic week and viral serial interval were correlated with the speed with which populations developed and maintained health behaviors in each outbreak.

Footnotes

  • https://github.com/rambaut/MERS-Cases/blob/gh-pages/data/cases.csv

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 28, 2020.
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Protective Population Behavior Change in Outbreaks of Emerging Infectious Disease
Evans K. Lodge, Annakate M. Schatz, John M. Drake
bioRxiv 2020.01.27.921536; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.27.921536
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Protective Population Behavior Change in Outbreaks of Emerging Infectious Disease
Evans K. Lodge, Annakate M. Schatz, John M. Drake
bioRxiv 2020.01.27.921536; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.27.921536

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