In Focus: Developments On The Middle Eastern Front
The past fortnight has witnessed a pivotal yet precarious transformation in the Middle East, with a mixture of diplomatic progress and persistent violence across the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zones. Whilst the UN Security Council’s adoption of Resolution 2803 marks a significant diplomatic departure, the reality on the ground remains defined by entrenchment and bloodshed. From the “Yellow Line” in Gaza to the refugee camps of Lebanon, the cessation of hostilities declared in October is fraying under the weight of new military facts on the ground. These developments underscore the truce’s tenuousness, with U.S. mediation straining under regional pressures.
Diplomatic Breakthrough: UN Resolution 2803
On November 17, 2025, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2803—13-0 (with Russia and China abstaining)—endorsing President Donald Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan as a framework for post-war governance and demilitarisation. The resolution authorises a “Board of Peace” (BoP), chaired by the U.S. President Donald Trump, to oversee reconstruction and security for a two-year mandate.
This structure effectively bypasses traditional UN peacekeeping mechanisms. The resolution mandates the deployment of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF), separate from UNIFIL or UNTSO, to enforce demilitarisation. Crucially, the text offers a conditional pathway to Palestinian statehood, contingent upon strict institutional reforms, which condition the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) return to Gaza on said reforms.
Whilst the UK Parliament debated and supported the motion as a necessary step to avoid a power vacuum, reaction in the region has been polarised. The Palestinian Authority has expressed cautious willingness to cooperate, whereas Palestinian critics, including Hamas, condemned it as imposing an “American colonial control” and a “new mandate” over Gaza, violating self-determination principles. Al-Monitor reported that the resolution lays legal foundations for phase two of the ceasefire, potentially advancing hostage releases and aid flows. However, the Middle East Eye noted jurists viewing it as an “illegal trusteeship,” codifying U.S. oversight without Palestinian consent. Israeli sources like Haaretz praised it for pressuring Hamas to disarm, whilst Arab News highlighted European conditions for PA revival tied to the resolution. Diplomatically, it boosted U.S. leverage, with Trump administration officials like Jared Kushner urging swift implementation amidst stalled talks in Cairo and European officials reportedly preparing to train 3,000 Palestinian police officers to support this new framework, signalling EU alignment with the U.S.-led initiative.
Gaza: The “Yellow Line” & Fragile Ceasefire
The “Yellow Line,” a concrete barrier dividing Gaza into Israeli-controlled (53%) and Hamas-held (47%) zones, remained a flashpoint. The Times of Israel reported daily Hamas “tests,” including crossings and gunfire, prompting IDF responses. Rights group Gisha has documented that Palestinians attempting to cross the line to reach their homes are frequently fired upon. Recent incidents include the killing of 11 members of the Abu Shaaban family near the line. On November 19, Israeli airstrikes killed 25 Palestinians in Zeitoun, Shejaia, and Khan Younis after alleged Hamas fire on troops, far beyond the line. Palestinian medics reported 305 deaths since October 10, with half occurring in one retaliatory day. Hamas denounced the strikes as escalations risking truce collapse, whilst Israel blamed Hamas for refusing disarmament. Arab News described Gaza’s “perpetual subjugation by lines in the sand,” with demolitions of 1,500 buildings violating the truce per the BBC, raising fears of a de facto partition of the enclave. Aid inflows improved, but looting by Hamas persisted. Al-Monitor noted U.S. warnings to both sides, with phase two stalled over hostages and weapons. Despite fragility, no full breakdown occurred, with Reuters reporting women and children injured in shaky enforcement.
West Bank Violence
Violence intensified, with settler attacks peaking during the olive harvest. On November 13, settlers burnt a mosque in Deir Istiya, drawing U.S. condemnation and warnings from Secretary Marco Rubio. The BBC reported settlers torching warehouses and land near Nablus on November 12, with rare Israeli enforcement intervening. The Times of Israel cited seven overnight attacks on November 21-22, including rock-throwing and fires in Huwara. Israeli forces killed two teens in Kfar Aqab raid on November 21, amidst stone-throwing clashes. Reuters noted a car-ramming stabbing on November 18, killing one Israeli, with the attackers shot dead. Human Rights Watch accused Israel of war crimes in expulsions, with the UN reporting 264 settler attacks in October-November. Al-Monitor highlighted the killings of six minors in November, even as Singapore imposed sanctions on four settlers on November 21. Reports indicate Israel plans to expropriate the Roman-era historical site in Sebastia, a move Al-Monitor analysts suggest could further inflame tensions and undermine the Abraham Accords.
Escalation in Lebanon
Despite a November 2024 ceasefire, Israel intensified strikes on Hezbollah, killing over 350 members since. Haaretz reported imminent escalation fears, with airstrikes targeting rearming efforts near the border. On November 19, an Israeli strike killed 13 near a Palestinian camp, per the BBC. Al-Monitor noted U.S.-Israeli pressure on Lebanon’s army over Hezbollah disarmament, with raids accusing rebuilds. The Times of Israel detailed strikes since November 10 to degrade threats, with Beirut pressed to act. The Lebanese President said on November 22 that Lebanon is ready to negotiate to end strikes. Haaretz highlighted U.S. mixed signals complicating efforts, with UNIFIL troops fired upon by the IDF on November 16.
Analysis and Outlook: Geopolitical Implications
The establishment of the “Board of Peace” under UN Resolution 2803 represents a high-stakes gamble by the international community. By formally decoupling Gaza’s security from the Palestinian Authority’s immediate political control, the U.S. and its allies are attempting to impose a “technocratic” solution on a deeply political conflict.
Geopolitically, this entrenches a “cantonisation” of Palestinian territories. With Israel retaining indefinite control behind the “Yellow Line” and the West Bank facing creeping annexation, the “pathway to statehood” promised in the resolution appears increasingly theoretical.
For the region, the normalisation of this fragmented status quo likely signals a period of containment rather than resolution. The risk of a multi-front eruption remains high; if the ISF fails to deploy quickly or if civilian casualties in the “Yellow Zone” mount, the fragile buy-in from Arab capitals could evaporate, leaving the U.S. directly managing a collapsed humanitarian zone.
Other Media Highlights
Gaza resolution may be terrible, but the alternative was worse. By Dr Dania Koleilat Khatib
Is Ideological Iran Changing Ideologically? By Hazem Saghieh
Denial as policy: Why Israel’s government fears a real October 7 inquiry. By Amotz Asa-el
First US-UN plan for Palestine raises hopes of peace. By Dr Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
Yitzhak Rabin Knew What Netanyahu Doesn’t. By Dennis Ross
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