I just witnessed a rare civilisational-level conversation.
@VitalikButerin builds Ethereum.
@balajis predicts the collapse of old paradigms.
These are 10 predictions they made. A 🧵:
Trump’s new tariffs may look like a trade war.
But Balaji Srinivasan disagrees...
I am here at @thenetworkstate & @balajis says this is a 4 layered problem.
This is what he disclosed to us: A 🧵:
4: Meet Arbitrage & Zero-One cities.
a) Arbitrage.
Exploit existing gaps (tax, crypto) but stay inside old systems.
b) Zero to One.
Rethink everything: economics, governance, even moral assumptions.
Are we iterating...or inventing?
USA🇺🇸 & China🇨🇳 copy each other more than they admit.
That is what @balajis & @psychosort think.
We got exclusive access to their talk.
These are 7 key insights they gave us. A🧵:
8: DeSci = the DeFi of medicine.
Today’s health system profits from illness.
DeSci flips that.
Truth-first. Peer-verified.
Science as code, not pharma marketing.
Balaji’s bet:
DeSci is the real alternative to institutional decay.
2: Balaji says: “China copies America on the way up. America copies China on the way down.”
Both systems now centralize control:
-Censorship
-Capital
-Social narratives
Different ideologies, but the same mechanisms.
1: Both nations face deep structural rot.
a) Military is focused on domestic control
b) Housing prices out the young generation.
c) Status obsession is killing chivalry.
Same struggles, different branding.
6: The new frontier = a talent market.
Every network state becomes a recruiter.
To win:
- Offer real differentiation.
- Build systems people want to live under.
- Attract thinkers & builders who opt-in.
Without this it is just jurisdiction hopping.
The richest people I have met all have one thing in common and it is not what you think…you know why? Because there is a huge difference between the rich & the ultra wealthy.
The ultra wealthy think in a really, really different way because they don’t chase salaries and they
3: There is a huge risk here.
Network states could just replicate these same problems.
Chau raised the key question:
"Are we truly building something new, or just remixing the old playbook?"
Who plays God, online?
7: History shows us that:
- The USSR collapsed copying America.
- America now copies China’s surveillance & control.
What now?
New systems must be antifragile & diverse.
1000 experiments so no single state can “copy all of them.”
Who is building for this?
5: Balaji had a sharp warning.
“If we recreate the same political + economic dynamics as the US & China, we’ve failed.”
Startup societies must break out of the mold.
They should not just slap a new brand on old hierarchies.
Otherwise?
We get Chimerica 2.0.
1: Balaji calls Ethereum the center-left of crypto.
Vitalik builds public goods.
He wants programmable equality, decentralized institutions, and fair coordination.
Balaji is center-right.
Wants opt-outs, exit, sovereignty.
Ethereum becomes the home for the “technocratic left.”
Coming from 10years+ TradFI experience let me assure you that they love paperwork which amounts to nothing and very little gets done (Always!).
A 50 page strategy deck can take three weeks to draft then take another two weeks for approvals so by the time it reaches the board,