Never really got to explain my reasoning for my $SIVB short - but suffice it to say now if you marked their holdings to market their book value would be negative
I know everyone hated this because stocks should go up in a straight line forever, but it’s actually a good thing the market has had some weakness and a chance to revisit the 50 day. Building up the wall of worry to take it down is an integral part of continued bull markets.
In previous cycles, consulting astrologer girlfriends, toll-free psychics and Etsy witches was something that only happened after index drawdowns of 15% or more.
How things have changed…
I give it a year until we see a new breed of AI native private equity firms that acquire companies just so they can move their workflows from Claude to open source Chinese models and flip them.
NEW: malware developers added nuclear & biological weapons text to to their spyware.
Goal? To trigger LLM safety refusals... so that their spyware wouldn't be analyzed by an AI security scanner.
Cleanest practical example I can think of for why over-indexing on first order
I think we’ve reached the point where normal people can’t really determine whether new models are better than previous ones. Like Fable doesn’t seem that much better to me, but every 150 IQ person I know is like “wow the singularity came sooner than I thought”.
Dan has been a friend of mine since I found his bank commentary on Twitter during the SVB fallout. Minerva has been a super interesting project to watch take off.
AI can now read your customers' minds.
We raised a $20M Series A lead by 8VC & Lingotto to build this.
Introducing Minerva, built in collaboration with OpenAI: