𝐴 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑤𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ ℎ𝑢𝑚𝑎𝑛-𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠, 𝑜𝑏𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑠, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠 —𝑧𝑜𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑛 𝐓𝐢𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐢 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑣𝑎𝑠.

Dear readers,

I hope you are having a great week and that life is keeping its usual pace.

This week, I bring you three topics. They are related, yet I have organized them separately to make your reading experience clear and engaging. All three focus on political developments and aim to encourage thoughtful reflection. It is always better to observe and form a considered judgment rather than being swept along by events, reacting only when they have already engulfed us.

Enjoy the reading, and I welcome your feedback.

1. Measured Reflection on “A Third Way in Tigray”

Recently, Getachew Temare published an article in Ethiopian Insight titled “A Third Way in Tigray”, which reflects on the region’s ongoing political uncertainty and explores possible pathways out of the current deadlock. His piece appears at a moment when Tigray is grappling with unresolved political tensions, weakened institutions, and a peace process that has stalled in both implementation and intent. The Pretoria Agreement—unevenly executed from the outset—is now further constrained by mistrust, competing priorities, and limited political will.

For communities still emerging from profound loss and disruption, the absence of a credible political roadmap has deepened anxiety and produced a sense of drift. The problem is not only the fragility of the peace architecture but the lack of a shared vision capable of guiding Tigray through this uncertain phase. In this environment, a widening space for civic participation is called for by the writer, as the need for broad-based engagement becomes increasingly evident.

Getachew introduces the Tigray National Civic Coalition (TNCC) as a civic-oriented platform designed to widen political space, bring non-establishment actors into the conversation, and elevate public participation. Its emphasis on civic engagement, institutional renewal, and structured dialogue is presented as an attempt to create a more inclusive process. The article positions the TNCC not as a replacement for existing political actors, but as an alternative venue through which political debate can be organized and civic input mobilized. Its reliance on non-violent engagement and the use of legal frameworks—including Pretoria—signals an approach that seeks accountability while avoiding further militarization.

A central question, however, concerns how this proposal differs from and interacts with other initiatives advanced in recent years, including those associated with General Tsadkan, General Abebe, and Ato Asefa Abreha. Is the TNCC a reconfiguration of earlier efforts or a fundamentally new proposition? This distinction matters: overlapping agendas and duplicated efforts risk diluting momentum and working at cross purposes with the broader aim of restoring stability.

The concept contains the elements of a potentially constructive intervention, but—as always—the challenge lies in the details. How can such an initiative be rolled out in a landscape full of political traps, entrenched interests, and institutional fragilities? Who is positioned to champion the work? And are Getachew and others around him prepared to commit the time, energy, and persistence required to translate the idea into a functioning structure?

These questions remain open. What is clear, however, is that promising ideas deserve engagement rather than dismissal at inception. In that spirit, Getachew’s contribution adds another perspective to a conversation that Tigray urgently needs to have.

2. Tsimdo’s Crossroads: Abiy’s Attempts to Reconcile with Isaias

We all remember the recent stir—the relentless speeches, televised assertions, and carefully crafted narratives—on Ethiopia’s supposed historical entitlement to Assab. It is argued, including by the premier, that Ethiopia, as the world’s largest landlocked country, cannot and must not remain without sea access; that its vast population and strategic needs demand it. Honestly, in my opinion, if pursued peacefully, this demand is both fair and just—Ethiopia is seeking what is rightfully critical for its development and participation in global trade, and is also historically meaningful.

But these arguments sit uneasily alongside a harsher reality: Ethiopia is internally fragmented, its political core unstable, and atrocities are escalating across the country, with the prospect of even larger-scale violence ever-present. Large sections of the population—Amhara, Tigray, and parts of Oromia—are anxious that yet another massacre could erupt from centers of power in Arat Kilo. Peaceful appeals for maritime access cannot be separated from the urgent need to stabilize internal governance and prevent further suffering.

Amid these tensions, rumors suggest that Abiy Ahmed has been quietly reaching out to Isaias Afewerki, using Kenya as a diplomatic bridge to settle the Assab question and even to reconcile. Some even claim earlier delegations traveled to China for the same purpose. If Isaias plays along, as the tactician in Asmara is known to do, Tsimdo—whether real or imagined—will simply atrophy. For him, Ethiopia is the larger, more consequential prize, and his longstanding grudge against the TPLF and Tigrai outweighs any objection he might have to a peaceful maritime settlement. If granting Ethiopia a corridor or naval foothold secures his interests, he may even seek concessions in return.

Already, all indications are that Tsimdo has resulted in the fraying of internal cohesion within Tigray. The very attempt to use it as a tactic or as a solution has sent different sections of the population go different routes.

On the other hand, it is encouraging that Tsimdo is fraying and failing to gain political traction. Yet for Tigray, whose leaders may have once treated it as a sort of magical calculation to escape a political conundrum, its unraveling highlights a recurring truth: alliances forged out of expediency or desperation rarely endure when larger, more strategic opportunities arise.

In short, these are desperate times—moments that demand careful calculation, balancing regional power dynamics, internal realities, and the fundamental interests of the people.

3. TPLF Fresh Blood: Ready to Take on the Old Guard?

Unconfirmed reports are circulating that the TPLF Central Committee is once again fracturing. And within the TPLF, splits are not minor disagreements—they are profound, often a complete and acrimonious divorce.

The Central Committee now includes many new members who have no experience in the armed struggle. On paper, this should have been an opportunity to bring in fresh perspectives. But a significant number remained indecisive or limited in worldview. Unfortunately, that is what has happened so far.

Yet, what if, over time, these very people, whom we are referring to here as cowardly and/or myopic, do experience an awakening, gather courage, see the reality of a Tigray in flux, and begin to grasp the magnitude of the challenges ahead? Perhaps, as some suggest, there are now a few among them genuinely disillusioned with the TPLF’s hypocrisy, its repeated failures, and its inability to reclaim Tigray’s sovereignty. They realize that internal bickering and a narrow agenda have stifled progress and that the presence of smaller minds at the helm has sabotaged everything.

TPLF infighting is an internal matter legally, but given the front’s size, history, and huge influence and clout—good or bad—its internal dynamics have far-reaching consequences for all of us outside it. If a faction now acknowledges past mistakes, advocates for collaboration, inclusivity, and broader political engagement, such initiatives should be welcomed. Where there is an effort for positive change, support is more constructive than skepticism or cynicism.

At the same time, I opine that the likelihood of fractures is high. There always emerge those unwilling to suffer from historical accountability or, in concrete terms, those who feel the weight of the Central Committee’s past and present differently. With figures like Getachew Reda now absent and having made unhelpful detours, perhaps it is only long overdue that we see new people—or better, a collective group—who can speak clearly, harmoniously, and officially for the people’s interest.

My advice to anyone seeking to break ranks and align with the public interest within the context of the TPLF: avoid getting trapped in endless, closed-door deliberations. Prolonged meetings favour those skilled in drawn-out internal battles and political maneuvering.
The new generation of leaders should focus on making their positions clear and gathering support openly. Excessive time spent in secret debate is a luxury that the public cannot afford. Besides, long meeting is a weapon of struggle that the anti-reform old guard are adept at using to succeed.