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Brendan Duke Profile picture
Brendan Duke
@Brendan_Duke
Econ nerd @amprog/@CAPAction | Former Biden-Harris National Economic Council tax/budget/supply chains | Senate/@JECDems/@CenterOnBudget alum | Tweets are mine
Apr 3 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Last week, I outlined questions I would be looking to have answered when the President’s budget is released. Now that we have the full proposal, we can now answer them.

Hint: It fails to offer affordability solutions to make life more affordable while raising the risk of hasty, harmful cuts. No. It doesn’t reverse megabill health/food assistance cuts. In fact, it cuts help for moms/kids buying fruits and veggies. It cuts the # of HHs getting help with rent & ends LIHEAP (utility help). It calls for a reconciliation process, when other cuts could come on the table. Image
Feb 11 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
NEW: @USCBO has posted its budget and economic outlook--the first full one we've had in a year so the first one reflecting One Big Beautiful Bill and the Trump tariffs. Going to post observations as I move through it.

🧵

cbo.gov/publication/61… Wow. CBO estimates that U.S. consumers bear 95 PERCENT OF THE TRUMP TARIFFS.

Basically, foreign firms bear 5% of them, U.S. companies bear 30% of them but other U.S. companies get to raise prices on consumers from less competition so that nets to zero.

And consumers pay rest. Image
Oct 7, 2024 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
I have a lot of respect for the work that went into the @budgethawks analysis of Harris's policies.

But the "Central" estimate includes several assumptions I don't think are defensible. The "Low" estimate comes a lot closer to what she's proposed. 🧵

crfb.org/papers/fiscal-… For background, I worked in the Biden-Harris WH and ran economic policy on a 2020 presidential campaign (Beto's). From my experience, Dem White Houses and presidential campaigns brag about investments they're making and not secretly suggest trillions of dollars.
Aug 27, 2024 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
New from me: an analysis of the Project 2025 tax plan coauthored by Trump economic advisor Stephen Moore.

TLDR: the plan cuts taxes for the wealthy and raises taxes on the middle class. 🧵

americanprogress.org/article/projec…
Image In the short-run, the plan moves to a two-bracket system instead of the progressive seven-bracket system we have now.

The bottom bracket (15%) is higher than the two current bottom brackets (10-12%). The result is a $3,000 tax hike for a typical family of four. Image
Jun 21, 2024 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Trump's tip proposal as embodied in this bill is a scam:

1.) Essentially no or very little tax cut for many tipped worker parents because of Trump tax cut CTC design.

2.) A net tax increase for tipped workers once you consider Trump's proposal to tax all imports.

🧵 This proposal essentially provides a deduction from income taxes for tips. So it won't reduce workers' EITC or reduce their payroll taxes to Social Security, which would reduce their benefits in the long run.

But this provides complications with the Child Tax Credit.
Mar 7, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
It's worth diving into how President Biden's tax proposals released today could require Elon Musk and Tesla to pay more in taxes.

I'll leave it to readers to decide whether Musk is saying these pro-GOP TPs because of sincere immigration beliefs or to keep his taxes low. 🧵 #1: Billionaire minimum tax: Perhaps the most straightforward--most of Elon Musk's $200B net worth comes from ownership of stock in startups like Tesla and SpaceX. Most of his income comes from stock appreciation, but he doesn't pay taxes on the stock unless he sells it.