Don't Worry About the Vase

Essays about buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology.

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.

Caplan and Candor

all models are wrong, but some are useful

P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.

Intermittent thoughts on navigating the transition to a world with extremely advanced AI systems

Preparing for a world with AGI

Underrated opportunities in science, technology, and society

Start your day with pragmatic takes on politics and public policy.

improving social epistemology, rewarding reasoned discourse

Deep coverage of technology, China, and US policy. We feature original analysis alongside interviews with leading thinkers and policymakers.

Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

Systems Politics and Regime Change

Join top forecaster Peter Wildeford as he forecasts our fast paced future and discusses AI, national security, innovation, emerging technology, and the powers - real and metaphorical - that shape our world.