The Monetary Frontier

The Monetary Frontier

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The St Louis Federal Reserve GDP NowCasting Is At Record Divergence to Atlanta Federal Reserve GDP Nowcasting.
Atlanta Fed GDPNOW is at 5.3% (real) for GDP QIV 2025 while St Louis Fed is at -.07% (real) for GDP QIV 2025.
 • George Robertson
Impulses (Trade, Monetary, Fiscal) Annual Rolling Indicate Economy Entered a Recession Quarter III 2025.
Trump's trade, fiscal, and monetary policy have resulted in a recession. Equity yet to price to a slowdown, let alone a recession.
AI Boom may not exist. That means GDP Is overstated by about 3% of late and S&P 500 by 40%
Using flow of funds and macro economics - Federal Reserve H8 report, US Treasury DTS, and Labor metrics - to query the validity of the AI boom.
 • George Robertson
A Chartalist State Centric Valuation of BTC
Currently, in terms of utility to the state (USA), BTC is about 3X to 5X overvalued - it worth approximately $20,000 now.
 • George Robertson
Equity level stability challenged by corporate profit deterioration.
Trump policy has started a large deterioration in corporate profits - the largest in a peacetime no serious issues period. Tariffs the largest negative…
 • George Robertson
Employment shows steady to unchanged economic growth.
Only two current indicators on employment available - weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance and daily withholding tax received into Treasury…
 • George Robertson
Stochastic Risk Qualifier of Credit Indicates Large Drop In Equity Levels Ahead
Credit spreads are an option pricing with the strike being default; “distance to default” (D2D) qualifies equity level and has some predictive…
 • George Robertson
The Monetary Frontier
The Monetary Frontier
Macro and monetary economic analysis.

The Monetary Frontier

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