Unexpected Points | Kevin Cole | Substack

Game Reviews

Super Bowl LX Patriots-Seahawks: Advanced Review

The Seahawks defense shines in the biggest game of the season, with their offense managing the game and avoiding losses

Feb 9 • Kevin Cole

Conference Championship: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Broncos-Patriots & Seahawks-Rams

Jan 26 • Kevin Cole

Divisional Round Sunday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Patriots-Texans & Bears-Rams

Jan 19 • Kevin Cole

Divisional Round Saturday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Broncos-Bills & Seahawks-49ers

Jan 18 • Kevin Cole

Wild Card Monday Night Steelers-Texans: Advanced Review

Rodgers crashes out in, perhaps, his last performance, and the Texans defense continues its dominance

Jan 13 • Kevin Cole

Power Rankings

Super Bowl NFL Power Rankings

The Super Bowl looks fairly even by my numbers, with neither team looking like a dominant force

Jan 28 • Kevin Cole

Conference Championship NFL Power Rankings

The top-3 2025 performers are into the Conference Championships, and how do we adjust for the Broncos' new quarterback?

Jan 20 • Kevin Cole

Divisional Round NFL Power Rankings

The Rams continue on a dream path to the Super Bowl, with the Bills enjoying an enormous quarterback advantage

Jan 14 • Kevin Cole

Wild Card Round NFL Power Rankings

The top-7 strongest teams in the NFL made the playoffs, with the Panthers the obvious outlier and the Packers looking better than most think

Jan 8 • Kevin Cole

Week 18 NFL Power Rankings

The Patriots are on the rise, with Week 18 starting quarterback chaos making the ranking mostly tentative

Dec 31, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Adjusted QB Efficiency

Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Drake Maye is the 2025 MVP

Drake Maye is still the MVP by the advanced stats, though Matthew Stafford has jumped him in betting odds

Jan 7 • Kevin Cole

2025 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Through Week 17

Drake Maye has emerged as the MVP favorite, and the adjusted EPA numbers wholeheartedly agree

Dec 31, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Through Week 16

Brock Purdy is still at the top, widening his lead over the rest of the NFL

Dec 24, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Through Week 15

Josh Allen keeps making moves towards the top, and Brock Purdy continues to show his value

Dec 17, 2025 • Kevin Cole

2025 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency: Through Week 14

Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford on the rise, while the disconnect between reputation and results for Justin Herbert continue to widen

Dec 10, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Week 7 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Using historical Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) and Bayesian statistical analysis to most accurately predict quarterback performance

Oct 16, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Week 1 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Using historical Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) and Bayesian statistical analysis to most accurately predict quarterback performance

Sep 4, 2025 • Kevin Cole

Week 17 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Caleb Williams showing some signs of life, while the top-10 remains solidly in place

Dec 25, 2024 • Kevin Cole

Week 16 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Drake Maye establishing himself in the mid-tier, and Aaron Rodgers showing signs of life

Dec 19, 2024 • Kevin Cole

Week 15 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold rising up to the top-half of the rankings

Dec 12, 2024 • Kevin Cole

Research

2026 NFL Offseason: Improvement Index for all 32 teams

Projecting point-differential gains and losses based on offseason moves for every NFL team

Mar 11 • Kevin Cole

NFL Plus/Minus: Myles Garrett is the Defensive Player of the Year (Again)

Using historical on-off the field splits and player clustering to estimate value of defenders

Feb 5 • Kevin Cole

NFL Plus/Minus: Who Should Be The 2025 NFL Offensive Player Of The Year?

Using proprietary NFL Plus/Minus methodology to concretely assign value to all non-quarterback offensive players

Feb 3 • Kevin Cole

A Historical Assessment of the 2025 Rookie Quarterback Class

Looking at historical rookie quarterback advanced metrics tell us a lot about how well Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough will perform in the future

Jan 6 • Kevin Cole

2025 NFL Offseason: Improvement Index for all 32 teams

Projecting point-differential gains and losses based on offseason moves for every NFL team

Mar 10, 2025 • Kevin Cole

NFL Draft

2026 Analytical Draft Grades: NFC

Quantifying trade, positional and selection value for the most accurate and predictive assessments of how well teams did in the NFL draft

Apr 27 • Kevin Cole

2026 Analytical Draft Grades: AFC

Quantifying trade, positional and selection value for the most accurate and predictive assessments of how well teams did in the NFL draft

Apr 27 • Kevin Cole

2026 NFL Draft Day 2 Analytical Review

Using consensus data from mock drafts and big boards, plus surplus value considerations, to analyze Day 2 of the NFL draft

Apr 25 • Kevin Cole

2026 NFL Draft First-Round Analytical Review

Using consensus data from mock drafts and big boards, plus surplus value considerations, to analyze the first round of the NFL draft

Apr 24 • Kevin Cole

2026 NFL Draft Analytical Big Board

Leveraging what evaluators do well, and enhancing it with analytics, via positional and surplus value

Apr 15 • Kevin Cole

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts