Sportsline

Sonny Gray is 9-1 this season...

Sean Burke has cleared this line in seven straight starts. …

Evan Carter hit a home run in Thursday’s win over the Detroit Tigers. …

Can Paraguay pull the big upset? ...

Chris Sale has been dominant at home! ...

Robbie Ray is under this line in 5/8 road starts this season. …

Will Sonny Gray continue his great form in Anaheim on Saturday night?

France has been spectacular offensively in this tournament ...

Damian Pinas has won all nine of his fights by stoppage...

ver 2.5 goals has paid off in all four of Norway’s games so far. ...

France have won all of their 2026 World Cup games by at least two goals. ...

Mexico has lost just twice at Estadio Azteca. ...

Fade Conor McGregor after a 5-year layoff?...

FanDuel (-125). Zebby Matthews has cleared this line in 6/9 starts this season. He’s actually made some tweaks with his arm angle and arsenal this season that have helped him with his command but lowered his whiff rate. The result has allowed him to stay in games longer, which in turn has kept his overall strikeouts up. He’s also been afforded a very long leash from the struggling Twins. Facing a Yankees lineup that’s struck out at a 28% rate over the last two weeks - Matthews pump-the-zone style should bode well against the Bombers, who have the second highest CSW%.

This pains me a little because I root for Canada in almost every international competition if not playing the USA. And if this match were in Canada, then no bueno. But it's in Houston. I don't think there is really much argument that Morocco is better (24 spots higher in world rankings), it's just a matter of whether we get stung with a regulation draw. But I really can't justify Canada +0.5, either. Note that I am considering this a moneyline play through extra time (to avoid said sting) and not 90 minutes.

Canada has had a great run in this World Cup, but I don't see them winning this match against an experienced Moroccan side. Morocco outshot the Netherlands, 11-6, in the Round of 32, and bolsters a backline that has given up three or fewer shots in target in each of their past three fixtures. Morocco defeated Canada at the 2022 World Cup, and with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line this time around, I expect Morocco to secure the win again in Houston.

Once again, I’m left impressed with this Morocco team. They play with a tenacity and physicality that can be suffocating, but what’s really exciting is how dynamic the attack looks. That’s something they’ve missed over the last few years. Canada have made a great run, but the turnovers worry me, especially the ones that come from dribble attempts and sloppy touches. They need to move the ball quicker and avoid getting stuck in possession. If they think Morocco are going to give them space to operate, they’re mistaken. Morocco are the better team on paper, and I think that wins out.

Morocco are on a long unbeaten streak, and these players know how to grind out results in big games. They did well to get past the Netherlands in the previous round, so they should be full of confidence right now. Canada aren’t playing on home soil anymore, so this could be the end of the road for them. They deserve a great deal of credit for getting this far, but Morocco have enough quality to beat them in Houston this weekend. It’s unlikely to be a high-scoring game, as the Moroccans are solid in defense, and the Atlas Lions should edge it.

This Washington Nationals lineup doesn’t strike out a ton, with just a 21% rate over the last month against righties, but they feature a bunch of lefties. Braxton Ashcraft has been far more successful in terms of strikeouts when facing left-handed batters and we continue to get 5.5 as his strikeout line so I’ll take the over. His curveball plays to a near 45% whiff rate against lefties and many of these Nationals hitters have struggled with the curveball. 7,8,9 Ks ladder for 1u.

FanDuel. Will break my “no overnight” rule on this one, but it’s for a pre-noon game as is. And it’s a great spot for Braxton Ashcraft, who is over this line in 11/17 starts, including 25 over his last three. The Nationals are very left-handed heavy, with six likely in the lineup. Ashcraft sees his strikeout rate jump to 32% against southpaws, paired with a 29% whiff rate. Washington has been striking out a bunch as is, with a 25% rate over the last two weeks. Look for Ashcraft to capitalize.

Seattle as a team had just two hits in yesterday’s win over the Angels. They’ll host a Toronto team that had Luis Castillo’s number in three starts a season ago. He gave up five runs in one start, matched a season worst ten hits allowed in another, and took the loss in game four of the ALCS with the Mariners up two games to one. Back Toronto to continue to have Castillo’s number.

The Padres have lost six straight, five of them by at least two runs. Thursday vs. the Dodgers they actually led by six – and lost 12-7. That was one day after losing by 20 at Wrigley (I was there - it was that ugly). They’re a team that really needs the All-Star Break. But it’s not coming here. Instead, they get Shohei Ohtani, who blanked the Padres over five innings earlier this season. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are back to pounding the ball, scoring nine-plus runs in three of their last four. Padres RHP Michael King pitched a gem vs. L.A. in May, but over his last seven starts is 1-5 with a 5.45 ERA.

Dylan Cease is putting together a stellar season, posting a 3.02 ERA, 2.36 FIP and 128 strikeouts in just 83 1/3 innings. His 128 Stuff+ and 112 Pitching+ highlight his elite arsenal, anchored by a high-spin slider with sharp, late movement. Cease will take on a Mariners lineup that ranks 26th in team batting average (.233) and strikes out often (11th most in MLB), making his slider-fastball combination a tough assignment for Seattle. Meanwhile, Luis Castillo enters with a 4.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a career-low 8.6 K/9. He’s giving up a 46.5% hard-hit rate. The ballpark also favors pitchers who rack up strikeouts and limit base runners, as T-Mobile Park ranks last in Park Factor. I like the road team in this spot.

The Milwaukee Brewers had a ten game span from late April to mid-June where they won Kyle Harrison’s starts. Now in each of his last two they have lost. In his three career starts he has struggled against the Arizona Diamondbacks in all. Two of the outings he did not make it past the fourth inning. Gaberiel Moreno has shown to be a consistent bat in the Dbacks lineup, and does have a hit and RBI against Kyle Harrison.

You may see fewer MLB picks from me in the next week or so because now we have hit the ultimate "Dead Zone" ahead of the All-Star Break. "Stanger Things!" I'm just going to keep doing pop culture. Hey, it's T-Swizzle's wedding night so I get a pass. Milwaukee lefty Kyle Harrison has largely been great but seems to be regressing to norms. And the Snakes murder southpaws (.773 OPS that is third in MLB). A one-run loss is just fine.

I’m a big fan of OPS splits over recent time periods, and this one fits the bill. When it comes to home/away and hitting off LHPs, over the last two weeks the Red Sox have been over 100 points better in both than the Angels. Then you look at the pitching. Over those same two weeks, the Boston bullpen has a 2.98 ERA compared to 4.23 for Los Angeles. Boston rookie LHP Jake Bennett posted a 2.78 ERA in June. L.A. veteran Reid Detmers was having a solid stretch but has come back to earth, allowing seven runs over his last two starts (11.2 IP).

I know that a lot of people want to bet the under in this match because we all had to watch 90 minutes of missed chances when Colombia took on Portugal. But don't let that fool you. Colombia is a scary attacking side who creates plenty of chances and who against a Ghana side who will try to play a low block, should be able to break through. I like BTTS in this match a lot since I think Ghana fall behind early, but even if they don't contribute Luis Diaz on a good day will lead Colombia to three goals

Logan Webb is humming. In five June starts he went 3-1 with a 0.71 ERA. Webb allowed just one hit over seven inning vs. the Braves in his last start. He went 7-8 innings in all five of those starts, important because the Giants’ bullpen posted a 5.65 ERA for the entire month. Colorado’s pen was even worse (6.01), and Rockies starter Ryan Feltner hasn’t gone over six innings yet. SF’s OPS the last two weeks on the road (.840) and vs. right-handers (.827) is top-tier and roughly 100 points above Colorado’s similar splits.