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	<copyright><![CDATA[Copyright 2026, Signal Processing Laboratory - ICS Forth]]></copyright>
	<pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2026 17:28:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Publications]]></title>
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		<title><![CDATA[Integrating Physics and Machine Learning for Soil Moisture Retrieval Using CYGNSS Observations]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>  2024 AGU Annual Meeting Preprint Collection on ESS Open Archive</p><p>Soil moisture (SM) is vital for understanding the Earth’s water cycle, soil health, and climate change. Missions like SMAP and AirMOSS estimate SM, and more recently, GNSS-reflectometry systems like CYGNSS are used for this purpose. CYGNSS offers high temporal resolution and lower cost compared to traditional microwave observatories. Current SM estimation methods using CYGNSS fall into two categories: 1) Physics-Based (PB) models, which are accurate but depend on detailed geophysical parameters often unavailable globally; and 2) Black-box Machine Learning (ML) models, which are generally not constrained by physics-based models and can produce inconsistent results.

We propose a novel physics-guided ML model with two modules: a PB forward model generating Delay Doppler Maps (DDMs) from SM, and an ML inverse model predicting SM from DDMs. The PB model selected is the Improved Geometric Optics with Topography (IGOT), and the ML model is a multi-layer perceptron, trained in two stages: pre-training and fine-tuning, both influenced by the PB forward model. Inspired by CycleGAN, the pre-training stage optimizes a cycle consistency loss function to minimize the differences between measured DDM and synthetic DDM generated by the PB forward model, and between arbitrary SM and predicted SM. This method addresses the in situ data scarcity challenge and encourages the ML model to act as an inverse of the PB forward model, producing consistent results. The fine-tuning stage minimizes the difference between predicted and in situ measured SM and incorporates the pre-training loss function as a regularizer.

The ML models will benefit from using other satellite and ancillary data sources, including SMAP. Our hybrid approach leverages the ML model’s ability to deduce complex data relationships while ensuring physically consistent results. Additionally, it reduces the time complexity of SM estimation due to offline training and moderate complexity inference.

Validation will be conducted using CYGNSS observations over three SoilSCAPE sites: San Luis Valley, CO; Jornada Experimental Range, NM; and Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, AZ. These sites offer diverse conditions, from smooth terrain and dry soil to complex topographies, monsoon seasons, and vegetation, providing a robust testing ground for the proposed method.</p>]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/integrating-physics-and-machine-learning.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Dec 2024 09:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Age of Incorrect Information with Hybrid ARQ under a Resource Constraint for N-ary Symmetric Markov Sources]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking, 2024, doi: 10.1109/TNET.2024.3499372.</p><p>
    The Age of Incorrect Information (AoII) is a recently proposed metric for real-time remote monitoring systems. In particular, AoII measures the time the information at the monitor is incorrect, weighted by the magnitude of this incorrectness, thereby combining the notions of freshness and distortion. This paper addresses the definition of an AoII-optimal transmission policy in a discrete-time communication scheme with a resource constraint and a hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) protocol. Considering an N-ary symmetric Markov source, the problem is formulated as an infinite-horizon average-cost constrained Markov decision process (CMDP). Interestingly, it is proved that, under some conditions, the optimal transmission policy is to never transmit. This reveals a region of the source dynamics where communication is inadequate in reducing the AoII. Elsewhere, there exists an optimal transmission policy, which is a randomized mixture of two discrete threshold-based policies that randomize on at most one state. The optimal threshold and the randomization component are derived analytically. Numerical results illustrate the impact of the source dynamics, channel conditions, and resource constraints on the average AoII.

</p>]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/age-incorrect-information-with-hybrid2.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Dec 2024 08:27:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[A Spatiotemporal Decomposition of a Video Stream Based on the Retina-Inspired Filter]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> IEEE 26th International Workshop on Multimedia Signal Processing (MMSP ‘24), Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN</p>The goal of this work is to propose a simple yet efficient way to dynamically transform a video stream according to the functional properties of the visual system. To achieve this goal, we extend to video sequences the Retina-Inspired Filter (RIF), which we have recently proposed for still images. Under the assumption that the input signal remains constant for a given time, the RIF decomposition was proven to be in-vertible, meaning that the image could be perfectly recovered. In this paper, we relax this assumption into a piece-wise constant input and analytically prove that the RIF can be applied to a group of pictures (GOP). We experimentally show that the size of GOP is important when motion appears, as some artifacts are generated. However, in the absence of motion among the GOP frames we can still perfectly reconstruct the video frames reducing the computational cost of the whole process.]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/spatiotemporal-decomposition-video.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Oct 2024 08:32:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[ Distribution-free uncertainty quantification for inverse problems:  application to weak lensing mass mapping]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[In inverse problems, distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) aims to obtain error bars with coverage guarantees that are independent of any prior assumptions about the data distribution. In the context of mass mapping, uncertainties could lead to errors that affects our understanding of the underlying mass distribution, or could propagate to cosmological parameter estimation, thereby impacting the precision and reliability of cosmological models. Current surveys, such as Euclid or Rubin, will provide new weak lensing datasets of very high quality. Accurately quantifying uncertainties in mass maps is therefore critical to perform reliable cosmological parameter inference. In this paper, we extend the conformalized quantile regression (CQR) algorithm, initially proposed for scalar regression, to inverse problems. We compare our approach with another distribution-free approach based on risk-controlling prediction sets (RCPS). Both methods are based on a calibration dataset, and offer finite-sample coverage guarantees that are independent of the data distribution. Furthermore, they are applicable to any mass mapping method, including blackbox predictors. In our experiments, we apply UQ on three mass-mapping method: the Kaiser-Squires inversion, iterative Wiener filtering, and the MCALens algorithm. Our experiments reveal that RCPS tends to produce overconservative confidence bounds with small calibration sets, whereas CQR is designed to avoid this issue. Although the expected miscoverage rate is guaranteed to stay below a user-prescribed threshold regardless of the mass mapping method, selecting an appropriate reconstruction algorithm remains crucial for obtaining accurate estimates, especially around peak-like structures, which are particularly important for inferring cosmological parameters. Additionally, the choice of mass mapping method influences the size of the error bars. ]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/distribution-free-uncertainty-quantification.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Oct 2024 12:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Variable-Length Stop-Feedback Coding for Minimum Age of Incorrect Information]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> ACM International Symposium on Theory, Algorithmic Foundations, and Protocol Design for Mobile Networks and Mobile Computing (MobiHop ‘24), Workshop on Age and Semantics of Information (ACM MobiHoc ASoI Workshop)</p><p>The Age of Incorrect Information (AoII) is studied within the context of remote monitoring a Markov source using variable-length stop-feedback (VLSF) coding. Leveraging recent results on the non-asymptotic channel coding rate, we consider sources with small cardinality, where feedback is non-instantaneous as the transmitted information and feedback message have comparable lengths. We focus on the feedback sequence, i.e. the times of feedback transmissions, and derive AoII-optimal and delay-optimal feedback sequences. Our results showcase the impact of the feedback sequence on the AoII, revealing that a lower average delay does not necessarily correspond to a lower average AoII. We discuss the implications of our findings and suggest directions for coding scheme design. </p>]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/variable-length-stop-feedback-coding.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Oct 2024 12:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Exploring the Potential of Recurrence Quantification Analysis for Video Analysis and Motion Detection]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>IEEE International Conference on Image Processing (ICIP ‘24), Abu Dhabi, UAE, October 27-30, 2024</p><p>This paper presents an enhanced methodology for Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) designed specifically for video analysis. By utilizing image quality metrics, with a focus on the Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR), we determine meaningful values for the RQA threshold ε, a critical factor for successful image processing. Utilizing the False Nearest Neighbors (FNN) technique, we identify the optimal embedding dimension D for each patch within the video frames. Our approach produces a heatmap that visualizes temporal recurrence information for each video patch.</p>]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/exploring-the-potential-recurrence.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Oct 2024 12:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Quantifying Uncertainty in Machine Learning Based Soil Moisture Retrieval From GNSS-R Measurements]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>2024 International Conference on Electromagnetics in Advanced Applications (ICEAA), Lisbon, Portugal, 2024, pp. 492-492, doi: 10.1109/ICEAA61917.2024.10701691.</p>Spaceborne platforms like the NASA SMAP and the ESA SMOS offer global-scale coarse-resolution observations that can be used to estimate surface soil moisture. However, they acquire observations at a moderate revisit frequency, reducing the impact on applications that require higher temporal resolutions. Global navigation satellite system reflectometry (GNSS-R) is a prime example of a signal-of-opportunity (SoOP) which has been shown to be highly sensitive to variations in soil moisture. In this work, we consider measurements from the NASA Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) mission which consists of eight low-orbit observatories, that are equipped with two nadirlooking antennas to receive reflected GPS signals. To extract soil moisture content, the traditional approach involves inverting parameterized forward models which account for aspects like dielectric properties of the soil, topography, and incidence angle information among others. Despite their potential, these models typically involve simplified assumptions and demonstrate increased sensitivity to the values of different parameters. To address this challenge, a new line of research tries to address this challenge by utilizing machine learning models and treating the problem as that of supervised regression.]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/quantifying-uncertainty-machine-learning.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Sep 2024 09:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Quantifying the Predictive Capacity of Dynamic Graph Measures on Systemic and Tail Risk]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> Computational Economics. </p>Understanding financial contagion and instability, especially during 
financial crises, is an important issue in risk management. The 
emergence of alternative high-risk and speculative asset classes such as
 cryptocurrencies, make it imperative to effectively monitor the 
financial connectivity between heterogeneous asset classes across time, 
in conjunction with the associated risk, to avoid a substantial 
breakdown of financial systems during turmoil periods. To address this 
problem, this paper investigates the predictive capacity of time-varying
 graph connectivity measures on tail and systemic risk for heterogeneous
 asset classes. To this end, proper statistical and geometric rules are 
defined first, to infer the dynamic graph topology of asset returns. 
Then, a novel predictive signal is proposed to quantify and rank the 
predictive power of dynamic nodal and global graph measures. Finally, a 
minimum dominating set detection method is used to track the community 
structure of our asset classes over time and study its consistency with 
the time evolution of the top predictive measures. Our empirical 
findings show a remarkable variability of the predictive potential for 
the distinct connectivity measures, and reveal its importance in 
designing alerting mechanisms for risk management.]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/quantifying-the-predictive-capacity.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Aug 2024 12:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Unveiling galaxy protoclusters in the era of Euclid]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> European Astronomical Society Annual Meeting, 2024, Art. no. 201</p>How large-scale structures formed in the early universe is a key cosmological question with few answers from empirical evidence. Unveiling galaxy clusters and their high-z progenitors (i.e., protoclusters) is essential to picture galaxy evolution drawn by the hierarchical formation scenario. However, unveiling these early structures at high redshift (z &gt; 1.5) in large astronomical surveys is still a challenge. In the context of the preparatory work for the Euclid mission, we are characterizing through simulations the best strategy to detect galaxy protoclusters in large photometric surveys. The characterization of these large-scale structures and the derived detection method are about to be tested in deep and wide multiwavelength surveys such as COSMOS and HSC-SSP, combined with the NIR ESO-SHARKS survey. Exploring the synergies between the upcoming Euclid's protocluster catalogue and the Large Radio Surveys is of great interest. Potentially, it could increase the purity of the candidate's sample, unveiling the formation of the Brightest Cluster Galaxy (BCG) at the core of the proto-structure and characterizing the hot intergalactic medium at these early cosmic epochs. In this contribution, I will present the results based on the Euclid-like simulations, purity and completeness to expect within the optical protoclusters catalogue and I will highlight the main challenges of the work.]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/unveiling-galaxy-protoclusters-the.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Jul 2024 12:20:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title><![CDATA[Mapping Wildfire Burned Area Using GNSS-Reflectometry in Densely Vegetated Regions with Complex Topography: A Machine Learning Approach,]]></title>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> IGARSS 2024 - 2024 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Athens, Greece, 2024, pp. 2072-2076, doi: 10.1109/IGARSS53475.2024.10641487</p>Accurate assessment of areas burned in wildfires is vital for various monitoring, management, and spread modeling applications. Wildfires, especially in forested regions, pose immense challenges for precise mapping due to the inherent dynamics of fuel types and terrain complexities. While remote sensing, particularly satellite imagery, offers an approach to studying burned areas, reliance on such satellite sources introduces challenges in characterizing burned areas amidst dense vegetation and environmental variations. This paper presents a mapping of forested burned areas utilizing global navigation satellite system–reflectometry (GNSS-R) from Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) with ancillary observations from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) using machine learning approaches. We validate the results with existing burned area products and provide maps of representative California fires within CYGNSS coverage. Assimilation of GNSS-R data into the model provides near real-time and high temporal resolution, enabling rapid response and mitigation efforts to fire events.]]></description>
		<link>https://spl.ics.forth.gr/publications/mapping-wildfire-burned-area-using-gnss-reflectometry.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Jul 2024 12:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
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