Good Monday!

K’s Choice on repeat left a heaviness in my algorithm. My Antidote: Shake It Off. I’m not a Swiftie, but it was the first song that got her on my radar as a songwriter. She captured a simple truth:

People’s words usually reveal more about their fears and beliefs than about you.

Funny how the stories we carry can weigh more than the facts in front of us. It’s not always the future that’s scary. Sometimes, it’s the past that makes it impossible to imagine something different.

Are you able to recognize when past beliefs and the futures we avoid affect your decision-making?

The Weight of the Past

During a restructuring phase, we killed our corporate startup because every result pointed to starting over from scratch. Despite the career risk, we did it anyway—to me, the entrepreneurial thing to do. Other corporate innovators wanted me angry about the ‘unfairness of the shutdown.’ I saw that they spoke from their own fear of taking a similar decision, and losing their “baby” and status, not seeing the reality of our deliberate choice. That’s the Weight of the Past in action.

Futurist Sohail Inayatullah’s Futures Triangle says plausible futures are shaped by three forces:

• Pull: The desired, magnetic future that pulls us forward.

• Push: Current trends, signals, and innovations that move us.

• Weight: The personal, institutional, and cultural baggage that holds us back.

What adds weight?

• Decision‑maker beliefs and career incentives

• Team, company, or industry identities

• Rules that once helped but now constrain

I treat the “Weight” neutrally: keep success factors (values, trust, why customers stay) and name what no longer serves.

Take dishwashers. Miele launched one of Europe’s first domestic electric models just before Black Thursday in 1929. It was too early for mass adoption—expensive; household staff were the norm; then the crash hit. The real weight wasn’t just the economy; it was the social norm: the idea that dishwashing was done by staff, not machines. Private-home adoption only took off in the 1960s, when market conditions and social norms had changed.

(BTW: I am really looking forward to Figure's future. It’s almost like having your own C-3PO.)

The takeaway: Train your futures muscle

Enough sci‑fi—back to the craft. Norms change; constraints loosen. Even if it failed before, or you don’t want to imagine a certain future, others will. Being able to see beyond the future we prefer takes work (especially if the future we want is just a continuation of the present). I think of it as a ‘futures muscle’ that gets stronger the more you practice. What you gain: You’ll be better prepared when it becomes real—both as risk and opportunity.

In short: Diagnose the force—Pull, Push, or Weight—before you decide.

To start training your futures muscle, scan for signals of change and ask yourself:

1. What is the driving force of this change?

2. Why is this not yet reality?

3. What is desirable about this future? (for someone)

Here’s one I’ve been wrestling with lately: “zero-workforce startups” becoming real — companies run entirely by AI with no human employees. The immediate reaction from most people? Either excitement about efficiency or panic about job displacement.

Now, let’s diagnose the Weight.

The Push is clearly the maturation of agentic AI, which drives the potential for hyper-efficiency and minimal operating costs (the Pull). But what is preventing this future from becoming reality today?

The article quotes a partner at a Venture Capital firm: “A business that automates or outsources everything isn’t a startup, just a stagnant company. A startup is, by definition, doing what hasn’t been done before and needs disruptive humans, not just programmed agentic AI.”

They seem less anxious. Yet, their entire business centers around startup investments—and that’s the danger. Their statement can also be viewed as a defense of their identity and business model (their Weight of the Past). Ask yourself: Are they able to imagine a world where the term “startup” becomes obsolete?

Knock. Knock.—Come in, Future. I was expecting you.

Futures thinking isn’t about predicting; it’s making sense of a future before it’s real—while you still have options.

What “obvious” future in your field deserves a second look? Hit reply and tell me.