Trump has pissed off a lot of allies and created a lot of bad sentiment. This doesn't change anything.
Bad sentiment, seriously? Trump directly and voluntarily damaged our economies (with tariffs). Trump threatened our national security, more than once! Trump denied us needed help for our friend Ukraine!
I personally see the USA to have POTENTIAL to be a FRIEND AGAIN one day in the future (which I hope is soon -- I'd love to feel secure and visit the USA again, or visit the students I send there as myself an academic with active collaborations with some of your top 5 institutions). But politically/militarily cannot consider the USA to be a friend right now as per definition of friendship which implies reciprocity. We haven't had evidence of reciprocity lately, while he have had evidence of duplicity, and even evidence we need to be careful.
our allies would assist just the same given it would likely be in their direct interests to do so.
1. What allies? My news last week says Trump threatened again to with draw from NATO. You say we're allies again this week?
2. Let's see these direct interests: Iran has demonstrated they are not stupid. They aren't at war with the world, they are at war against whoever bombs them, or helps the bombings happen. It's in the European NATO country's BEST INTEREST to remain NEUTRAL in this war, and avoid becoming a target.
The facts that show EU countries intend to remain neutral:
* Several EU country already signalled they won't help. Spain DENIED the USA flying over their airspace with military aircraft.
* France sent an aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean to secure the European interests; then refused to use it to secure Ormuz, and making the point to say they're not at war with Iran. Obviously! France has ONE aircraft carrier. We don't want to have it pinned in Ormuz, when we are in a hybrid war with Russia!
This war is already costing us militarily. We (France) are helping friends in the middle east, using OUR anti-missile resources to defend their ground. We spent years of stock, and we can't make those missiles very fast. Soon we will have depleted our stock of anti-air missiles and no way to restore stocks in less than a decade, while Russia is out there at our doorstep...
What is going to happen if some country decides to help the USA in this war? Apart from direct retaliations from Iran...
* this country designates itself as a target for local terrorism. European countries have populous Iranian communities and won't take that risk easily.
* if European countries send troops to Iran, Europe would be making themselves vulnerable to the Russian front. We're not that stupid! We need our entire military in Europe to remain dissuasive against Russia.
If shit really hit the fan
What is your scenario "shit really hits the fan" where NATO countries would benefit in helping the USA? Let's speculate:
(1) somehow Iran manages to retaliate against the USA on American ground (since they can't send troops, maybe a couple of missiles, or through terrorism).
1. Would Trump invoke NATO Article 5? Really, with his ego? Then would anyone trust him with help right now? Or is he going to impose 200% more tariffs (like he threatened Spain two weeks ago) if he doesn't get exactly the amounts of troops he wants, or the amount of money he demands, or whatever goes through his mind that morning?
2. Can you provide any reason why we would actually risk our lives for a war we didn't choose, we were not even be INFORMED OF a minute in advance? I don't see any benefit for any to enter this mess.
3. We (non-USA part of the world) are at PEACE with Iran right now. Why would we want to become their target?
4. USA is constantly playing Big Boy. What sort of help does Goliath needs against David?
4.1 Do you really think European countries will send troops in Iran? We have democracies, we typically have 4+ political parties in a constantly moving equilibrum. If governments do stupid things like this, they fall in a month, someone else becomes the leader and most likely backtracks.
4.2 or do you want European troops to help secure Washington DC while you're busy in Tehran?
4.3 Would you actually have use for a European aicraft carrier, when the USA has 11 in operation, and whole Europe has TWO? (And both are 2.5 times smaller than the American counterparts?) Trump has been constantly belittling European armies. Do you expect Europe to go all-in with... so little investment in defence... as Trump painted it?
(2) the war expands when Russia (Iran's ally) attacks Europe as retaliation, or seeing an opportunity. That still won't make Europeans enter the Iran war. To the contrary that will make Europe withdraw from wherever else and defend itself.