I've been writing software for over 30 years. I used to spend 20% of my time writing and maintaining unit tests, one-off scripts, and stuff like that. I would not trust AI to touch my core code. But tests and one-off scripts? Stuff that fits easily in its context window? Sure.
No, it doesn't *always* work, but it *usually* does. And it doesn't take very much time to figure out when it's not working. And rather frighteningly, it does a *better* job on most of those one-off scripts than I would. (I'm not going to spend a bunch of time on error handling and comments for code I only need to run once. But the AI does.) Sure, I could have an intern or junior SWE write the same tests or scripts, but that'd take hours, vs. minutes.
If 80% of your engineers are able to leverage AI to do the same work in 80% of the time, it doesn't matter if the other 20% can't figure out how to make AI work. You just lay them off; the other 80% are efficient enough to compensate for the layoffs. And that's one of the big things causing stress right now. You either figure out how to use AI, or you'd better start learning plumbing or something.
It also sucks if you're a new-grad SWE. Because the AI is better and faster than you *are right now*, and a lot cheaper. If you had a couple years experience, you'd be in the first pile of engineers trying to be in the 80% who keep their jobs. But you aren't. And you can't get that experience, because nobody will hire you until you already have it. The best you can do is work on open source or personal projects to build experience in the evening, after you bag groceries during the day. And hope that you get better faster than AI does. (Seriously, that's what my son is doing.)
Unfortunately, I don't see a way off this unamusement park ride. Even at a 20% gain, any individual or company who doesn't use AI is going to lose out in speed or cost to someone who does.
(Actually amusingly, the companies that try to push *too much* AI won't end up any better than the ones who push *too little*. Those are the ones who will vibe code themselves into corners, or AI will break stuff in prod, and nobody will know how to fix it because they laid off too many people too quickly.)