MACH96
Retirement Probability Analysis
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MACH96 · Wealth Planning Series
MACH96
Wealth Planning Series · Vol. I

Retirement Probability Analysis

Longevity Modeling & Sustainable Withdrawal Assessment
Prepared by MACH96
I · Client Inputs
Establish the Parameters
Enter current ages, portfolio value, and desired annual retirement income. Spouse inputs are optional.
A
Primary Client
B
Spouse / Partner
C
Investable Portfolio
D
Income Objective
Plan Parameters
Withdrawal Rate
—
—
Joint Life Expectancy
—
—
Probability of Success
—
—
II · Longevity Projection
Life Expectancy & Survival
Per the SSA Period Life Table — Social Security Administration, 2022 mortality data (2025 Trustees Report).
Survival Probability Curve
Longevity Milestones
III · Withdrawal Analysis
Rate Versus Sustainable Benchmarks
Reference: Morningstar — "The State of Retirement Income," 2025 Edition (December 2025). Benchmarks reflect a 90% probability of portfolio survival.
Withdrawal Rate vs. Morningstar Safe Withdrawal Benchmarks
2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
IV · Success Probability
Plan Outcomes Across Horizons
Probability the portfolio sustains the requested real income — derived from Monte Carlo simulation at three longevity benchmarks (50th, 25th, and 5th percentile).
Portfolio Path Simulations · Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Dollars
Plan Interpretation
Math Behind the Number
Simulation Methodology
Simulations Run
—
Independent paths per scenario
Expected Real Return
3.8%
After inflation, balanced portfolio
Annualized Volatility
8.5%
Standard deviation of real returns
Return Distribution
Normal
Box-Muller transform, IID draws
Each scenario simulates 10,000 independent retirement paths. In each path, annual portfolio returns are drawn from a Normal distribution; constant real withdrawals are deducted at year-end. Success is defined as the portfolio retaining positive value at the end of the planning horizon. Parameters are calibrated such that a 3.9% withdrawal over 30 years produces approximately 90% success — matching Morningstar's 2025 base case.
Sources & Methodology
Life expectancy and survival probabilities derive from the Social Security Administration Period Life Table (2022 mortality experience, as published in the 2025 OASDI Trustees Report). Sustainable withdrawal benchmarks reflect Morningstar's "The State of Retirement Income, 2025 Edition" (released December 2025), which estimates a 3.9% starting safe withdrawal rate over a 30-year horizon at 90% probability of success — up from 3.7% in 2024. Success probabilities are computed via 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per scenario, using a 3.8% expected real return and 8.5% volatility — parameters calibrated to reproduce Morningstar's published anchors across 15-, 20-, 25-, 30-, 35-, and 40-year horizons. Joint life expectancies assume independence between lives, the standard actuarial convention.
Disclosure
This tool produces probabilistic estimates based on published actuarial data and forward-looking capital market assumptions. It is not a guarantee of future results. Actual outcomes depend on portfolio composition, tax treatment, sequence-of-returns risk, and personal factors not captured here. For implementation, consult a MACH96 advisor.