Disclosure: Not financial advice. The author holds shares in the company discussed.

Many people avoid FinTwit. And for good reason. It’s filled with trash talkers, blatantly wrong information, and heavy biases. In its most malicious form, psyops.

When tickers gain popularity, and are heavily circulated on X, they’re already deep in momentum, sentiment territory. Now, that’s all good and dandy when high beta names are in, and the bull market is in full swing. But it can turn south, quickly. And what happens with those popular stocks? You end up buying into liquidity, and when it inevitably dries up, you’re left holding the bag.

But hidden among the momentum names — the constant firehouse of X.com posts — are small accounts that surface forgotten tickers. Companies that have been discarded. That’s not to say all these businesses are great, or are even worth looking at. But some are. And today, we’ve found one of those tickers.

Let’s cut to the chase — Oddity Technologies — ODD 0.00%↑

Yea yea, go on and say it. It’s a small cap. Well, at least by ETF standards. But put that aside for now. It’ll come into play later on during valuation, that is only once we have a story about the company.

Like Aswath Damodaran says, there are a few risks to valuation without a story.

• You can “play” with numbers to change value

• You can fool yourself with false precision

• You can deny your own biases

But there’s really another more important risk. The risk of being inflexible with the numbers. Pureblood number crunchers can never properly understand how the numbers change, because they don’t have the inputs. The story is the input. It’s what tells you what’s around the corner, where the puck is going. Sure, the company guided for a higher growth rate, but why? Did Microsoft fall 12% in one day because of the numbers or because of the story that OpenAI is a significant part of their cloud backlog?

So what’s Oddity’s story?

We need to rewind the clock all the way back to 1972.

Yes, you read that right. 1972.

NYC-based makeup artist Ilana Harkavi originally launched IL MAKIAGE in 1972, but was little known outside of the professional circuit. It was quite well known within industry circles for quality products (such as the windowed eyeshadow packaging) and used by artists and makeup professionals rather than mass-market consumers. But that leaves a small market for IL MAKIAGE. For many years it remained a relatively small, niche prestige makeup line. By the 2000s and early 2010s, the company’s financial health deteriorated significantly. Before its acquisition in 2013, IL Makiage was in serious debt and effectively entered receivership / liquidation.

At the same time, during the early 2000s, Oran Holtzman attended The College of Management Academic Studies in Israel. Although very little is public about Mr. Holtzman, sometime after his studies, he worked as a young accountant at EY Israel. He realized he wouldn’t become wealthy at the firm, raised capital from family members, and partnered with Shiran, his sister, to take over Il Makiage.

In 2013, Oran and Shiran bought Il Makiage out of receivership for 12 million shekels, or $3.37 million, assuming 80 million shekels or $22.5 million in debt. In so doing they established Oddity, the parent company of Il Makiage. For the first five years, Il Makiage operated only in Israel through local stores. But the sister-brother duo always wanted to expand to the U.S., where they realized a much more profitable market was available. In 2017, Holtzman pitched a plan for expansion to LVMH’s investment arm. Holtzman knew only around 10% of beauty sales were happening online, and presented his plan to be the face of e-commerce beauty. LMVH’s investment arm said yes and ended up acquiring a 35.5% stake in Il Makiage for $34 million. The capital was used to launch the brand in the U.S. in 2018.

The 2018 launch of Il Makiage started with just a website. On that website, a questionnaire with a photo upload to match users with products. It was clear — Oran and Shiran’s idea wasn’t just to go e-commerce, but to personalize beauty through the internet.

2018 was critical for Oran and Shiran because it wasn’t just a relaunch of Il Makiage. It was the launch of Oddity. That is, the technology platform that Il Makiage’s e-commerce segment was built on top of. By 2019, Oddity became the fastest-growing beauty brand. Their orders grew from 300 to thousands of orders, daily. By then, LVMH sold their stake for more than a 15x return.

Now that’s a story.

From receivership to fastest growing beauty brand, Oran and Shiran by all means achieved the impossible. But it wasn’t luck. “He works like crazy, days and nights” said a close acquaintance.

It turned out the e-commerce launch was timely. When COVID-19 hit in 2020, Oddity had honed and refined it’s technology. The company was rebranded into a tech company, not just a line of beauty products. As Shiran Holtzman Erel told Calcalist in 2020: “In Israel, we’re a proud retail player; in the U.S., we’re 100% online.” Oddity blossomed during the pandemic, going through massive growth.

Over the years, Oran and Shiran were able to perform a number of accretive acquisitions. In 2019, Oddity acquired NeoWize, a data science startup for analytics and AI efforts, that marked the shift towards technology. Just two years later, the company acquired Voyage81, an Israeli deep-tech startup hyperspectral imaging and AI-driven computer vision. The purpose? Online skin and feature analysis to better personalize their beauty products.

In 2022, Oddity launched it’s direct-to-consumer brand SpoiledChild, focused on wellness and skincare products. And by 2023, Oddity doubled down on the technology focus to specialize in skincare products that are personalized.

But this time, Oran and his team wanted to create a vehicle with the sole purpose of specializing on the molecular biotech side. The team found Revela, a Boston-based biotech company specializing in AI-based molecule discovery for beauty and wellness. Perfect. A little negotiation and Oddity acquired the company, turning it into what’s now known as Oddity Labs.

By 2023, Oddity was a powerhouse. Oran and Shiran built an empire. And they were ready to take the next step, tapping the public markets. Oddity Tech filed for and completed its IPO on Nasdaq under the ticker ODD 0.00%↑. On July 19, 2023, the company IPO’d at $35, and closed the day at $47.53 per share. Oran and Shiran had successfully IPO’d at ~2.8 billion, and the company raised $423 million in proceeds.

What’s happened since then?

Glad you asked. ODD 0.00%↑ IPO’d officially at $35 per share. Since then, the company has compounded revenues from roughly $509 million in 2023 to $780 million, on a TTM basis. That’s a 23.7% CAGR. On the bottom line, EPS has grown from $1 to $1.79 TTM, at about a 26.8% CAGR.

Meanwhile, the share price has had a turbulent ride, landing at $32.84 as of Saturday January 31st, 2026. Despite all that growth, the share price has gone down.

Sure, the company doesn’t put up Palantir-level growth, but it also doesn’t trade at Palantir multiple of 343. ODD 0.00%↑ trades at a modest 18.36 multiple, with roughly 5.6% FCF yield, and an ROIC at around 35%. The company has zero net debt and is growing top-line at 25%. At the same time, the business has been executing share buybacks over the last two years to the tune of nearly $250 million. Since their IPO outstanding shares have only marginally increased.

To us, it’s an Oddity.

And it’s worth taking a deeper look at why the chart looks the way it does.

That is when even a modest DCF valuation gives a roughly 30% margin of safety, with low assumptions and a high 11% discount rate for a company with zero net debt, and plenty of capital.

That move in early May was due to a positive surprise, a double beat on Q1 2025 earnings. But really? That can’t be it, plenty of companies double beat and get hammered regardless. Well, ODD is framed by analysts as a tech-growth company, and in May, it caught the AI trade. Being AI-adjacent, it benefited from that volatility. Then around mid-May, Oran came in and sold $5.5 million worth in a block trade that attracted some negative sentiment.

Over the past 6 months, investors and analysts alike become concerned with margin pressures, maybe because the tariffs, or maybe just growing pains. Despite consistent growth, and Oddity beating guidance in Q3, 2025 by a very healthy margin, the stock ultimately traded down following other high-beta tech/ai related stocks. In fact, Oddity’s gross margin reached 71.6% in Q3 vs a guidance of 68%! But with the downward price actions, came the analysts. Like flies to shit (pardon my french) the analysts came to revise their price targets.

During the Q3, 2025 earnings call management refused to give 2026 guidance. This likely also contributed negatively. Although, the long-term financial model is clear: roughly 20% annual top-line and bottom-line growth. And in fact, management did offer some insight into 2026. Their key priorities and drivers were explicitly stated.

• International Expansion. Continue to scale into overseas markets including Spain, France, and Italy.

• Product launches. An array of solid new products lined up that should boost revenue.

• Oddity Labs commercialization. Oddity Labs is targeting at least 8 products in 2026 across Oddity brands — METHODIQ, Il Makiage, SpoiledChild.

• Further accretive tech investments.

And note that management did say even if Oddity Labs produces no new molecules in 2026, they’ll be able to achieve their guide of 20% growth.

Further, management released guidance for Q4, 2025:

• Net revenue between $149 million and $152 million, representing year-over-year growth between 21% and 23%.

• Gross margin of approximately 69%.

• Adjusted EBITDA between $10 million and $12 million.

• Adjusted diluted EPS between $0.11 and $0.13. This assumes an effective tax rate of approximately 25%.

Nice, that’s 22% top-line YoY growth right there.

So, Oddity has $570 million gross profit TTM gross profit, but only $121 million operating income. It’s a tech company but why doesn’t it have better operating margin’s like a tech company. The simple answer is they’re in growth mode. Oddity Labs’ is a large operating expense. Oddity is spending on large R&D efforts to grow and build new brands, with METHODIQ having just launched in November 2025.

The bull case here is the same one that can be seen across many, especially technology businesses. As they scale, they will start to gain operating leverage. The operating expenses will grow slower and slower compared to the gross profit, letting more earnings drop to the bottom line.

We like companies that beat and raise guidance. Here’s the history of Oddity’s earnings results and guidance.

2023

• Q2: Beat internal expectations and raised full-year 2023 plan.

• Q3: Exceeded guidance and raised outlook.

• Q4: Beat guidance and capped a strong fiscal year.

2024

• Q1: Beat and raised.

• Q2: Beat and raised.

• Q3: Beat and raised.

• Q4: Beat guidance; press highlighted strength (raise status implied by momentum).

2025

• Q1: Beat and raised.

• Q2: Beat and raised.

• Q3: Beat and raised.

That’s 10 consecutive quarters of beats, with 7 of those quarters raising guidance. Really impressive.

What really differentiates Oddity from competitors including personalizers like HIMS and more traditional beauty companies like e.l.f and Estee Lauder is the core focus on technology. As Oddity scales and gains more consumers — or as management puts it “a larger audience” — they aggregate every piece of data they can to make informed product decisions and future brands. What Oddity does is they build a backlog of customers that could use these future products, so as these new brands and products come online, these people become real customers. Since this additional data helps improve the personalization and recommendation engine, it kicks off the flywheel that is Oddity’s technology engine. This isn’t some sleepy company with a few beauty products listed on a website. It’s a tech powerhouse that is solving problems it sees in the beauty, wellness, telehealth industries and beyond.

And they’ve proven it. Thus far each brand they’ve launched has done better than the last. Il Makiage was incredibly successful. Then SpoiledChild became even more successful. And now, METHODIQ launched in November 2025 and has no reason not to continue that trend. The teams goal is for each brand to reach $1 billion in revenue, with Il Makiage slated to reach that goal first in 2028.

The risks are pretty straightforward. Oddity has a lot going on under it’s roof. Multiple brands, many product skews, and various technology efforts. The danger is Oddity has split focus and becomes too distracted to focus on their core business. One silver lining here is management has already clearly stated that they’ve pulled back Il Makiage’s growth because SpoiledChild grew from $25 million revenue to $110 million in the course of a year. In order to achieve that growth, Il Makiage had to take a backseat to make sure it grows sustainably over the long run. Separately, a tell tale sign with respect to growth being sustainable is that Oddity has zero net debt. Their zero-coupon debt is very manageable and they’ve got $800 million of cash and equivalents. We don’t see that as growth at all costs. It’s diligent, strategic expansion.

Another risk is, like most companies, competition. With their recent launch of METHODIQ — a medical telehealth platform delivering customized high-efficiency treatments powered by online diagnosis. The METHODIQ platform started with dermatology treatments for acne, hyperpigmentation, and eczema, with plans to expand into additional medical domains. But there are many competitors in the space including the infamous HIMS. On the traditional beauty and wellness side, Oddity is facing tough competition from an infinite number of brands from e.l.f. to Estee Lauder.

Oddity is far from perfect. It’s made some mistakes in the past, including launching a token on Ethereum that really went nowhere. Experimentation is good, up to a point. Failing fast is important, as long as a culture of failure doesn’t arise.

A real risk is that Oddity has a dual-class share structure, meaning they have two types of shares: Class A and Class B. Class A ordinary shares are what we trade on exchanges. Of which, Oran owns roughly 23%. But the Class B shares have 10:1 voting power compared to that of Class A, and the founder(s) own all Class B shares. What that means is Oran holds roughly 76% of the voting power of the company. It’s up to Oran what happens. He could snap his fingers tomorrow and tender a sale to private equity if he so pleased. And it’s hard to tell because he’s such a private individual.

All in all, Oddity is an empire. It’s founder-owner-operated. It’s an asset-light, multi-brand conglomerate with multiple tech engines driving the future. What looks like a sleepy beauty brand, is actually a high-growth tech platform that’s executing on the long run. In a world of copy cats, we like Oddity. ODD 0.00%↑