Refcell Capital

Refcell Capital

Downright Disrespect

When Guidance Obliterates Analyst Models

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Refcell Capital
Feb 14, 2026
∙ Paid

Disclosure: Not financial advice. Do your own research.


There’s a company trading at $1.5 billion market cap, down over 22% in the pre-market due to guidance. Yet, they beat EPS by a whopping 129%, delivering $0.80 EPS vs an expected $0.35 in Q4 2025. On the top-line, the company grew by 26% YoY, though network volume increased a meager 3%.

One could argue this is just part of the current market funk. Earnings beat. Not so bad guidance. Optimistic management. And bang, down double digits outside trading hours.

When Mr. Market beats down stocks with unbridled pessimism, it’s too easy to get caught in the negative sentiment. Oh no, Amazon’s investing $200 Billion because demand is so high. Surely, they should have a multiple lower than Walmart. Microsoft? Nobody uses windows anymore, let’s sell them off 22%.

No, when Mr. Market is grumpy, that’s when you need to look at the numbers. Careful though. Today, the market isn’t fearful, and so it’s not time to be greedy. It’s just acting like an petulant teen, who hasn’t eaten all day. And your job is to feed them some numbers.

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