Disclosure: Not financial advice. Do your own research.

We’re a company that wants to be weighed, and over time, we will be — over the long term, all companies are. In the meantime, we have our heads down working to build a heavier and heavier company.

Those are the words of Jeff Bezos in his 2000 annual letter to AMZN 0.00%↑ shareholders. And a heavy company is what they’ve built.

Can we take a moment to appreciate what the team at Amazon has achieved?

Over the past ten years, Amazon has been able to grow it’s top-line revenue 546%, that’s a CAGR of roughly 20.5%. Incredible. Over that same period, they’ve expanded their gross profit margin from 33% to 50%, but more importantly, their operating profit margin from 2.1% to 11%.

Notably, the past three years have brought an explosion in operating leverage. From 2.4% operating margin in 2022 to 11% in 2025. For a company the size of amazon with nearly $700 billion in annual revenue, that’s just insane.

The question is will Amazon perform in the future? Let’s dig in.

Since 2020, AMZN 0.00%↑ has only gained about 40%. Yes, the recovery from $80 looks like a dramatic run, but the fundamentals don’t map. In 2020, the operating margin peaked at 5.9%. Now, it’s at 11% — nearly a double. Meanwhile the stock is up 40%? How about revenues? Up from $386 Billion to $691 Billion — or up roughly 80%. The question is was Amazon just overpriced between 2020 and 2022? Or is the market just not appreciating the fundamental expansion that Amazon has achieved.

To answer that, let’s just take a sober look at the numbers. Amazon trades at a market cap of $2.56 Trillion, with a TTM PE of 33.47. Does that freak you out? Buffett told you anything above a 15 earnings multiple is overpriced? Guaranteed to lose all your money? Relax “value” investor.

Amazon trades at a price to sales of 3.7. But it’s growing revenues at nearly 12%, with bottom line growing much faster. With operating margins at only 11% — yes, only, we’ll talk about that later — there’s still a lot of room to expand.

Doubtful?

Don’t trust this analysis. Here’s what the analysts say.

Do you see those earnings estimates? Do you understand what going from 23% EPS growth in 2025 to 26% growth in 2027 means? That’s pure bottom line expansion. That’s high growth. It’s incredible. For a company managing $700 billion in annual revenues, projected to reach $1 Trillion in 2028, that’s not normal. It’s in a class of it’s own, and it’s not stopping.

But let’s suggest the world is disrupted — which it probably will be — and in 10-20 years from now, we all place our orders through our humanoid companions or some edge ai chat device. Someone needs to process those orders and the logistics behind moving around physical goods. Who do you think that’s going to be? Amazon, baby. It doesn’t matter if you don’t go to amazon.com manually anymore. Since Amazon is a logistics and robotics company with the lowest shipping times, you best believe your orders will be routed by the AI agents through Amazon.

And in that world, in 10-20 years from now if humanoids and edge ai is so pervasive, do you think they won’t also be pervasive across Amazon logistics? Or AWS? What does that mean for Amazon’s operating margins?

Let me spell it out.

As of 2026, Amazon has over 1 million robots deployed across its global fulfillment network. These robots assist in handling repetitive tasks like moving inventory, sorting packages, and transporting carts, working alongside human employees to reduce physical strain and improve efficiency. In specific robot-equipped fulfillment centers, automation has already reduced workforce requirements by around 25%. In the near-term, further reductions, up to 50%, are expected to occur as more systems are rolled out. Estimates for core warehouse task automation range from 20-40%.

Looking ahead to around 2035 (roughly 10 years from now), leaked internal documents reveal Amazon’s robotics team aims to automate 75% of its overall operations. That could mean a roughly 3x in automation, from 25% to 75%, which honestly seems low. But regardless, let’s use this 3x. What happens to Amazon’s operating margins?

Now, before we jump the gun and assume the operating margin of 11% jumps to 33%, we need to break down revenue. As of Q3 2025, Amazon’s AWS operating margins are in the range of 34.6% to 39.5%. AWS makes up 17.6% of Amazon’s total revenue. That means, AWS contributes roughly 56% of Amazon’s total operating margin. So Amazon’s core online and third party sales only provide 4.8% of the operating margin. This is the number we want. Now, we can ballpark a 3x of 4.8% leads to an increase of 9.6% in Amazon’s operating margin. So by 2035, if automation plays out, and AWS’s operating margins don’t continue to grow (due to pure operating leverage), Amazon should have an operating margin around 20%. That’s almost a double from these levels.

So, just off automation, you get a 7.18% CAGR over ten years. That’s why analysts project EPS to continue to grow at high levels of 23%. Over the past 5 years, EPS has grown at a CAGR of roughly 21.5%. If you take the 7.18% automation CAGR and add it to the top-line 12% growth, you nearly get that EPS CAGR. This is for business as usual.

We haven’t even looked at the fact that Amazon owns 15-20% of Anthropic.

Or the 13-18% stake in Rivian.

Or Astera Labs.

Or Whole Foods.

Or Zoox.

Or Pill Pack / Amazon Pharmacy.

… and the list goes on.

So, what does Amazon look like in 2035? Let’s do some back-of-the-napkin math.

Revenue: $1.77 Trillion, assuming growth steadily drops from 12% to 7% by 2035.

EPS: $45.59

This assumes the EPS growth linearly slows from 23% to 18%. Let’s say the earnings multiple re-rates from 33 to 20 due to signs of slowing growth.

Share Price: $912

Current Share Price: $239

That’s a CAGR of 14.33% over the next ten years. And that’s with a very generous multiple re-rating from 33 to 20. That’s probably too conservative, but let’s be a bit conservative. If the multiple is a more reasonable 25x? That’s $1,140 per share. Especially if Amazon has a stock-split, a boost to the multiple could very well happen. Another catalyst for higher multiple is if the company decides to issue a dividend.

It’s really only a matter of time before AMZN 0.00%↑ reaches a $10 trillion market cap, but that when can make all the difference in rate of return. If we’re being reasonable, 2035 is in the cards.

You might not like it. But this is value. This is a no-brainer.