Shutdown Surrender Is Political Suicide for Democrats
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Democrats think they run against Republicans. Republicans think they run against Democrats. When swing voters existed as a significant segment of the electorate, that was at least partly true. In our age of polarization, there are too few swing voters to determine the outcome of most races. Elections are won by the party that most motivates its base. When turnout is king, a party’s biggest enemy isn’t the other party. It’s apathy. These days, each of the two parties runs against itself. Every race is an intra-party contest between novelty, which can generate excitement but also fear of the unknown, and establishmentarianism—the tendency of institutions to revert to their historical inertial center. Establishmentarianism makes its strongest case when people feel good about their job, their finances, their communities, and thus institutions like political parties and government. Americans haven’t felt happy about the economy or much else for at least the past decade or two. Which is why every election, even…
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