Why Testing Needs Explainable Artificial Intelligence April 19, 2021
Posted by Peter Varhol in Algorithms, Machine Learning, Software development.Tags: Algorithms, explainable artificial intelligence, Machine Learning, neural networks, testing, XAI
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Many artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) applications produce results that are not easily understandable from their training and input data. This is because these systems are largely black boxes that use multiple algorithms (sometimes hundreds) to process data and return a result. Tracing how this data is processed, in mathematical algorithms, is an impossible task for a person.
Further, these algorithms were “trained” or adjusted based on the data used as the foundation of learning. What is really happening there is that the data is adjusting algorithms to reflect what we already know about the relationship between inputs and outputs. In other words, we are doing a very complex type of nonlinear regression, without any inherent knowledge of a casual relationship between inputs and outputs.
At worst, the outputs from AI systems can sometimes seem nonsensical, based on what is known about the problem domain. Yet because those outputs come from software, we are inclined to trust them and apply them without question. Maybe we shouldn’t.
But it can be more subtle than that. The results could pose a systemic bias that made outputs seem correct, or at least plausible, but are not, or at least not ethically right. And users rarely have recourse to question the outputs, making them a black box.
This is where explainable AI (XAI) comes in. In cases where the relationship between inputs and outputs is complex and not especially apparent, users need the application to explain why it delivered a certain output. It’s a matter of trusting the software to do what we think it is doing. Ethical AI also plays into this concept.
So how does XAI work? There is a long way to go here, but there are a couple of techniques that show some promise. It operates off of the principles of transparency, interpretability, and explainability. Transparency means that we need to be able to look into the algorithms to clearly discern how they are processing input data. While that may not tell us how those algorithms are trained, it provides insight into the path to the results, and is intended for interpretation by the design and development team.
Interpretability is how the results might be presented for human understanding. In other words, if you have an application and are getting a particular result, you should be able to see and understand how that result was achieved, based on the input data and processing algorithms. There should be a logical pathway between data inputs and result outputs.
Explainability remains a vague concept while researchers try to define exactly how it might work. We might want to support queries into our results, or to get detailed explanations into more specific phases of the processing. But until there is better consensus, this feature remains a gray area.
The latter two characteristics are more important to testers and users. How you do this depends on the application. Facial recognition software can usually be built to describe facial characteristics and how they match up to values in an identification database. It becomes possible to build at least interpretability into the software.
But interpretability and explainability are not as easy when the problem domain is more ambiguous. How can we interpret an e-commerce recommendation that may or may not have anything to do with our product purchase? I have received recommendations on Amazon that clearly bear little relationship to what I have purchased or examined, so we don’t always have a good path between source and destination.
So how do we implement and test XAI?
Where Testing Gets Involved
Testing AI applications tends to be very different than testing traditional software. Testers often don’t know what the right answer is supposed to be. XAI can be very helpful in that regard, but it’s not the complete answer.
Here’s where XAI can help. If the application is developed and trained in a way where algorithms show their steps in coming from problem to solution, then we have something that is testable.
Rule-based systems can make it easier, because the rules form a big part of the knowledge. In neural networks, however, the algorithms rule, and they bear little relationship to the underlying intelligence. But rule-based intelligence is much less common today, so we have to go back to the data and algorithms.
Testers often don’t have control over how AI systems work to create results. But they can delve deeply into both data and algorithms to come up with ways to understand and test the quality of systems. It should not be a black box to testers or to users. How do we make it otherwise?
Years ago, I wrote a couple of neural network AI applications that simply adjusted the algorithms in response to training, without any insight on how that happened. While this may work in cases where the connection isn’t important, knowing how our algorithms contribute to our results has become vital.
Sometimes AI applications “cheat”, using cues that do not accurately reflect the knowledge within the problem domain. For example, it may be possible to facially recognize people, not through their characteristics, but through their surroundings. You may have data to indicate that I live in Boston, and use the Boston Garden in the background as your cue, rather than my own face. That may be accurate (or may not be), but it’s not facial recognition.
A tester can use an XAI application here to help tell the difference. That’s why developers need to build in this technology. But testers need deep insight into both the data and the algorithms.
Overall, a human in the loop remains critical. Unless someone is looking critically at the results, then they can be wrong, and quality will suffer.
There’s no one correct answer here. Instead, testers need to be intimately involved in the development of AI applications, and insist on explanatory architecture. Without that, there is no way of comprehending the quality that these applications need to deliver actionable results.
Deepfakes and Our Belief Systems April 2, 2021
Posted by Peter Varhol in Publishing, Technology and Culture.Tags: deepfakes
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What we believe has become very controversial in recent years. There is the old saw that we can choose what we believe, but we can’t choose our facts. Or can we?
Deepfakes are images or videos can today be manipulated to show false narratives. Probably the most famous is how social media outlets posted a video of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, simply slowing it down to the point where she was slurring her words and appeared to be drunk.
But videos can also be entirely synthesized, through a combination of existing digital content, manipulating how that content is displayed, editing that content, and adding new content. While I’m not the artist enough to do it, the tools are within reach for plenty of people.
Certainly in politics, international diplomacy, and maybe even in business, deepfakes have the clear potential to change the narratives of debates. And they will, as people will continue to believe what they see, because how can our eyes lie? (Cue The Eagles Lyin’ Eyes).
But deepfakes can also be used for more prosaic purposes, such as product placement. Or, as the above example suggests, trashing people we want to trash, for our own personal purposes.
You and (I’m not sure) I can come up with deepfakes. And we will. I would like to think that I have a little more ethics than this, but it’s still problematic. So where, precisely, are we going with deepfakes? I don’t think it’s a good place.
True North and Life: An Allegory April 1, 2021
Posted by Peter Varhol in Uncategorized.Tags: compass, directional gyro, True North
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True North is this, from Google: Geographic (or True) North Pole: It is the point on the Earth which is calculated as the northerly point which is furthest away from the Equator. It defined as 90°N. It is located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean.
As a personal life goal, it means trying to be the person that you can be, without excuses, to point unambiguously North, toward a clear goal. It is different, somewhat, for every person, but everyone needs a true North in life.
I have an internal compass. Compasses do not point to true North, they point to magnetic north. I don’t understand the geology, but magnetic north seems to move. Even in my lifetime, mag north has moved several hundred miles. So we wander around over the period of our lives, maybe not far, but maybe not particularly close, to North. Look it up.
If we are defining our lives by true North, but have an internal compass, this is a problem, because it means that our life cannot automatically point to true North. We need to, I think, figure out how to get there through dead reckoning.
My internal compass is wrong, mostly. I don’t know at any particular time whether or not my life is pointing to true North. In fact, it’s probably not. How can I make myself the person that points to their true North? And gets there, if not right away, by the end of life.
I also have a directional gyroscope inside of me. I can set that gyro to North, periodically. But it does something called precession. It is a mechanical device that eventually becomes inaccurate, and needs to be reset.
And I think that for all of us, if we cannot find and reach true North in our lifetimes, yes, we may crash. I will repeat myself. Life is mostly about dead reckoning, which means navigating from one point to the other, using our compass and directional gyro. There are no other tools in life. If I am no longer dead reckoning, I am dead.
And. This is the most important thing in my life.
Wear a Dang Mask March 29, 2021
Posted by Peter Varhol in Technology and Culture, travel, Uncategorized.Tags: masks
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That title is the Twitter identity tag line of my friend and former colleague Steven Vore, and it succinctly describes what I am about the say.
I just read about how poorly service employees are treated by some customers, and it makes me sick. And mad.
People who beat up on service employees, in public places, should be ashamed of themselves. You are raging against those who are simply trying to do their jobs, under the most difficult conditions imaginable. We should be striving to make it incrementally easier for them, irrespective of our own beliefs. That’s what being civilized is all about.
If you can’t be civilized toward your fellow travelers through life, you are simply less than human. I have on occasion encountered people who were passive-aggressive about wearing masks (not locally though, where compliance seems to be high; perhaps it’s because of the pot dispensary down the street in neighboring Massachusetts). But I’ve not encountered violence or shouting, thankfully.
I have traveled on planes domestically twice in the last few months, and will be getting on a plane again in another couple of weeks. Double-mask, face shield, disposable gloves, wipe down everything. I am fully vaccinated, but that routine won’t change. I have been tested four times, and have come up negative four times.
The routine not only protects me and others, but it also sets an example. It says that I take 550,000 deaths in a year seriously. We all need to.
Will We Have to File a Flight Plan? March 26, 2021
Posted by Peter Varhol in aviation, Machine Learning, Technology and Culture, travel.Tags: autonomous vehicles, Scale AI
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I have been an airplane pilot, although I haven’t commanded an aircraft in years. Depending on where you were going, you could just hop in the plane and go. But if you were flying into controlled airspace, you generally had to file a flight plan, which defined your intentions. Am I flying through, or landing at a controlled airport? What am I proposing as an altitude and course? And, of course, things may adapt based on actual conditions through the controlled airspace.
I am currently watching the Scale AI Transform conference online. A speaker is talking about autonomous vehicles, and about how we (collectively) have spent billions of dollars without yet deploying those vehicles except in very limited tests.
It occurs to me that we may need to file the equivalent of a flight plan in order to get into our car in the future. I wonder if we might have to specify our destination and route that we intended to travel. Today air flight plans are mostly manual, but I will not be surprised if we have to spend some time on the computer in the future just to drive to the supermarket.
Autonomous vehicles represent an exceeding complex technical problem. You need many exacting sensors in the car, real time processing and decision-making in the car, an unambiguous knowledge of road rules, extremely reliable communication between vehicles, and a broker, likely in the cloud, that can manage traffic flow and decisions on a real time basis. Maybe, possibly, we might also have to have the equivalent of a staffed air traffic control to manage traffic.
In most circumstances, it is much more complex than flying an airplane. The pilot is still ultimately in control, and can interact with both human controllers and automated systems to make the best decisions.
When I first started traveling to California, I was nonplussed at the red lights on merging onto freeways. I came to understand that it was about traffic flow, a very primitive method that enabled a slightly better spacing out of cars. While the advantage of autonomous vehicles has the potential to be significant, the sensing, decision-making, and control of autonomous vehicles extend far beyond this.
So I think it’s going to be a while before we get fully autonomous vehicles. We have read stories about how people have accidents because they turn their fate over to self-driving systems. That’s stupid today, and it will likely be a bad choice for years to come.
The Loss of Local Journalism March 22, 2021
Posted by Peter Varhol in Publishing, Technology and Culture.Tags: Carl Hiaasen, Virtual communities
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Carl Hiaasen is retiring as a longtime journalist for the Miami Herald, and it sounds like he’s leaving Florida altogether. I don’t live in Florida; I know Hiaasen as a funny fiction writer (Basket Case is my clear favorite).
This normally wouldn’t be of particular interest to me, except for remarks Hiaasen made concerning local journalism in his last column.
“Retail corruption is now a breeze, since newspapers and other media can no longer afford enough reporters to cover all the key government meetings. You wake up one day, and they’re bulldozing 20 acres of pines at the end of your block to put up a Costco. Your kids ask what’s going on, and you can’t tell them because you don’t have a clue.
“That’s what happens when hometown journalism fades — neighborhood stories don’t get reported until it’s too late, after the deal’s gone down. Most local papers are gasping for life, and if they die it will be their readers who lose the most.”
For much of my adult life, growing up with rapidly changing technology, I believed that people would gradually stop associating with where they lived, and who they lived next to. Instead, we would become virtual, forming worldwide communities based on our interests rather than our physical location. I thought this was inevitable, and entirely a good thing.
Well, it is happening that way, but too many of the results aren’t pretty. On the positive side, I count as friends many technology professionals worldwide, and stay in touch via email or LinkedIn, with the occasional conference. My life has been enriched by these experiences.
But it has also enabled virtual groups devoted to hate, or devoted to absurd conspiracies. And the power of those groups is amplified by their virtual reach. In short, at least some of them have become a significant danger to modern civilization.
So I think Hiaasen is right, in that we have given local news, and local journalism the short shift. I don’t know if there is any way of bringing back the geographically local element of our lives, but it is worthwhile trying to do so. When I go out walking in the neighborhood (masked these days, of course), I at least greet my neighbors, and occasionally engage them in conversation.
I also have an alderman (Alderwoman? Alderperson?) who years ago gathered together as many email addresses as she could in order to keep her ward informed on local happenings. She has since retired, but still sends out large group emails on zoning, community meetings, and the like.
So give it a try. Talk to your neighbors. Try to engage people in community activities. Maybe even find ways to support your local newspaper. Our lives will be better in return.
Education in the Coronavirus Era March 7, 2021
Posted by Peter Varhol in Education, Technology and Culture.Tags: coronavirus, education, home schooling
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I am a huge proponent of education. Neither of my parents graduated high school, but my ability to go to college and beyond has contributed significantly to my secure, upper middle class life. But public education has largely fallen apart as schools are closed and states and communities are grappling with how to provide the education needed to build functional adults.
There is the obvious, certainly. Those without reliable Internet access have not been able to easily participate in the efforts that schools have made in continuing the progression through the grades.
But there are less obvious things going on. There are parents who are unable or unwilling to properly support their children in home education opportunities, and are also not advancing as they should be. Some of this is cultural, but a lot is geographical; as we are largely privately Internet funded, we don’t have any way to make education equally accessible online.
I have two grandnephews, 14 and 12. They both seem smart and motivated. The elder seems to be doing well in a hybrid (in person and at home) school environment. The younger was infinitely bored with the at home option, and my sister and her daughter were able to place him in a private in-person school, where he also seems to be doing well. My family is not poor, but I will contribute to higher education when the time comes.
I grew up in an era where it was not necessary to graduate high school to have a middle class living; the steel mill took care of that, until it didn’t any more. My elder grandnephew wants to start at a community college, and I applaud that approach to continuing education.
An educated society is a stable and contributing society. And, I’m going to say it, a progressive society, in the sense that it becomes more civilized over time, because we understand more. As much as we seem to have regressed in that regard over the last few years, I worry that we are losing still more.
Yet I wonder what we are losing in these two years (more or less) of traditional education. I know parents who have home educated very successfully, but that requires a tremendous commitment that most are not able to make. Now that public education (which we are still fully funding, yet can’t quite figure out how to deliver it) is seriously limping, I am very concerned for the future of our society.
Do We Want Tech Companies Running Our Towns? March 6, 2021
Posted by Peter Varhol in Strategy, Technology and Culture.Tags: Aliquippa, Company town, Nevada
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I was born and raised in a company town. That meant that a company bought thousands of acres of land, constructed a major company or plant, and built most or all of the homes and businesses within its borders. When I was growing up, the largest retail operation was the company store (yes, where we owed our soul), a six-story building just off of Franklin Avenue. The neighborhoods were organized as plans, built as needed to supply workers, and hundreds of houses were rented out to workers who came to work the mill.
But this concept gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of the company town. the governor of Nevada, Steve Sisolak, announced a plan to launch “Innovation Zones” to attract technology firms. The zones would permit companies to form governments carrying the same authority as counties, including the ability to impose taxes, form school districts and courts and provide government services.
In one sense, it’s an intriguing idea. Can tech companies do a better job than local governments? It might be interesting to find out. But it’s got a bunch of problems, both philosophical and practical. From a practical standpoint, technology firms simply don’t have the infrastructure that were needed by factories and mines of a century ago. They tend to focus on their business, not on running municipalities, and except for the very largest don’t have the resources to do so.
From a philosophical standpoint, governments stand legally and ethically accountable to the people. I realize that this accountability is often imperfect, but I can’t imagine that a company dedicated to business really cares about serving a larger community.
But here’s really the biggest problem. My home town, Aliquippa, reached a population of 27,000 during the heyday of the steel mill. In the 1980s, the steel mill cratered as the steel industry underwent economic shifts. I remember flying over it in the mid-1990s, coming into Pittsburgh airport, and amazed at the six-mile sandbar along the river where the steel mill once thrived. Today the population of Aliquippa is about 9000, with all of the economic and personal devastation you might imagine.
Tech companies are even more fleeting. As a young adult in the Boston area, companies such as Wang Laboratories, Digital Equipment Corporation, and Data General all flourished in the 1980s and employed tens of thousands of people (in DEC’s case, well over 100,000 at its height). Today, all have been out of business since the 1990s. I can envision, maybe, getting a tech company enthused about starting and running a municipality, for maybe a few years, but I fail to see any level of ability or commitment to do so for a century or more. In some cases, companies have promised to invest in existing communities or to provide a set number of jobs in return for tax breaks, but rarely deliver on those agreements.
So this is a bad idea. I hope Nevada comes to its senses.



