Probable Causation

Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia.
"The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement" by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Inside the war on drugs: Effectiveness and unintended consequences of a large illicit crops eradication program in Colombia" by Alberto Abadie, Maria C. Acevedo, Maurice Kugler, and Juan Vargas.
“Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities" by Luis Carlos Reyes.
“On the effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía, Pascual Restrepo, and Sandra V. Rozo.
“Bushes and bullets: Illegal cocaine markets and violence in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía and Pascual Restrepo.
“Rural windfall or a new resource curse? Coca, income, and civil conflict in Colombia" by Joshua D. Angrist and Adriana D. Kugler.
“A geography of illicit crops (coca leaf) and armed conflict in Colombia" by Ana María Díaz and Fabio Sánchez.
“The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia" by Adriana Camacho and Daniel Mejía.
“Deforestation and Coca Cultivation Rooted in Twentieth-Century Development Projects" by Liliana M. Dávalos, Karina M. Sanchez, and Dolors Armenteras.
"Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths" by Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
"Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia" by Lucas Marín Llanes, Manuel Fernández Sierra, María Alejandra Vélez, Eduard F. Martínez-González, and Paulo Jose Murillo-Sandoval.
"Cocaine Goes Bananas: Global Spillovers from an Illicit Supply Shock" by Gianmarco Daniele, Adam Soliman, and Juan F. Vargas.
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David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit.
"Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities" by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Freedman, and David C. Phillips.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Getting to Work: Experimental Evidence on Job Search and Transportation Costs" by David C. Phillips.
“Public Transit and the Spatial Distribution of Minority Employment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment" by Harry Holzer, John Quigley, and Steven Raphael.
“The Effects of the Announcement and Opening of Light Rail Transit Stations on Neighborhood Crime" by Stephen Billings, Suzanne Leland, and David Swindell.
"Means-Tested Public Transportation Subsidies: Causal Evidence and Implications" by Seoyoon Ahn, Matthew Freedman, David Phillips, and Atheendar Venkataramani.
“The Role of the Fare in Welfare: Public Transportation Subsidies and Their Effects on Low-Income Households" by Seth Chizeck and Oluchi Mbonu.
“Do Free and Discounted Fares Increase Transit Use, Well-being, and Employment for Low-Income Residents? Evidence from a Pilot Program in Washington, DC" by Alyssa Huberts, Roxanne Oroxom, Kayleigh B. Campbell, Katherine N. Gan, Danielle Moore, and Sam Quinney.
Want more?
Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment.
Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.
Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, the Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness.
Jennifer Doleac is the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures.
Paige Harden is a Professor of Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin.

Steeve Marchand talks about the effects of prison programs on behavior.
"Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix, and Steeve Marchand.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Does incarceration length affect labor market outcomes?” by Rasmus Landersø.
“Incarceration, recidivism, and employment" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Tough on young offenders: Harmful or helpful?” by Giulia Lotti.
“Leave the door open? Prison conditions and recidivism" by Giovanni Mastrobuoni and Daniele Terlizzese.
“Do better prisons reduce recidivism? Evidence from a prison construction program" by Santigo Tobón.
“'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang.
Probable Causation Episode 113: Peter Hull
"Can prisons move people into better jobs? A look at correctional vocational training programs and sectoral employment outcomes" by Britte van Tiem.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour
"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer Doleac.
Want more?
Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.
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Ezra Golberstein talks about the impacts of school-based mental health services.
"Effects of School-Based Mental Health Services on Youth Outcomes" by Ezra Golberstein, Irina Zainullina, Aaron Sojourner, and Mark A. Sander.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Investing in Children to Address the Child Mental Health Crisis" by Janet Currie.
“The FDA and ABCs: Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital" by Susan H. Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara.
“The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program" by James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz.
 
Want more?
Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice comes out February 24th, and is available for pre-order now.

Check out my new book!
The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice
 
In this episode of Probable Causation:
Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. This episode was first posted in April 2024.
“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
"Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert. 
"The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Robert E. Worden, Sarah J. McLean, Robin S. Engel, Hannah Cochran, Nicholas Corsaro, Danielle Reynolds, Cynthia J. Najdowski, and Gabrielle T. Isaza. 
"The impact of implicit bias-oriented diversity training on police officers’ beliefs, motivations, and actions" by Calvin K. Lai and Jaclyn A. Lisnek.
"Does De-escalation Training Work?" by Robin S. Engel, Hannah D. McManus, and Tamara D. Herold. 
"Assessing the Impact of De-escalation Training on Police Behavior: Reducing Police Use of Force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department" by Robin S. Engel, Nicholas Corsaro, Gabrielle T. Isaza, and Hannah D. McManus.
“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour
"Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.
"The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force" by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross
 
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Vijetha Koppa talks about Lethality Assessment Programs used by police in domestic violence incidents.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
"Does the Certainty of Arrest Reduce Domestic Violence? Evidence from Mandatory and Recommended Arrest Laws" by Radha Iyengar.
"Revisiting the Effect of Warrantless Domestic Violence Arrest Laws on Intimate Partner Homicides" by Yoo Mi Chin and Scott Cunningham.
"Deterrence or Backlash? Arrests and the Dynamics of Domestic Violence" by Sofia Amaral, Gordon B. Dahl, Victoria Endl-Geyer, Timo Hener, and Helmut Rainer.
"Improving Batterer Intervention Programs Through Theory-Based Research" by Gregory L. Stuart, Jeff R. Temple, and Todd M. Moore.
"Batterer Intervention Programs: A Report From the Field" by Bethany J. Price and Alan Rosenbaum.
“The next Generation of Court-Mandated Domestic Violence Treatment: A Comparison Study of Batterer Intervention and Restorative Justice Programs" by Linda G. Mills, Briana Barocas, and Barak Ariel.
"The Oklahoma Lethality Assessment Study: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Lethality Assessment Program" by Jill T. Messing, Jacquelyn Campbell, Daniel W. Webster, Sheryll Brown, Beverly Patchell, and Janet Sullivan Wilson.
"Criminal Charges, Risk Assessment, and Violent Recidivism in Cases of Domestic Abuse" by Dan A. Black, Jeffrey Grogger, Tom Kirchmaier, and Koen Sanders.
"Policing in Patriarchy: An Experimental Evaluation of Reforms to Improve Police Responsiveness to Women in India" by Sandip Sukhtankar, Gabriele Kruks-Wisner, and Akshay Mangla.
"Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India" by Sofia Amaral, Sonia R. Bhalotra, and Nishith Prakash.
"Gender Violence, Enforcement, and Human Capital: Evidence from Women’s Justice Centers in Peru" by Sviatschi, Maria Micaela, and Iva Trako.
"Female Political Representation and Violence Against Women: Evidence from Brazil" by Magdalena Delaporte and Francisco Pino.

Peter Blair talks about occupational licenses as information about criminal records.
“Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing" by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger.
“Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Market" by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger.
“A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States" by Morris M. Kleiner and Evan J. Soltas.
“How Much of Barrier to Entry is Occupational Licensing?” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung.
“The unintended consequences of 'ban the box': Statistical discrimination and employment outcomes when criminal histories are hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
“Does Job Testing Harm Minority Workers? Evidence from Retail Establishments" by David H. Autor and David Scarborough.
“Job Market Signaling" by Michael Spence.

Joseph Doyle talks about improving foster care outcomes.
“Effects of Enhanced Legal Aid in Child Welfare: Evidence from a Randomized Trial of Mi Abogado” by Ryan Cooper, Joseph J. Doyle, and Andrés Hojman.
OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:
“The Effects of Legal Representation on Tenant Outcomes in Housing Court: Evidence from New York City’s Universal Access Program” by Michael T. Cassidy and Janet Currie.
"Better Together? A Field Experiment on Human-Algorithm Interaction in Child Protection" by Marie-Pascale Grimon and Christopher Mills.

Barry Friedman talks with Jens Ludwig about his book: Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.