At Prime Yield, we closely monitor the trend in non-performing loans (NPL) in Portugal — and the latest figures confirm a very positive trajectory.

• Portugal ends 2025 with €4.1 billion in NPL, around ten times less than in 2015
• The country has now seen a decade of consecutive reductions in NPL
• The NPL ratio has fallen significantly, from 19.6% to 2.0%
• In 2025 alone, there was a reduction of €500 million (-11%)

In addition to the sustained improvement in these indicators, our research also reveals a repositioning of the transaction market for these portfolios: more selective, smaller-scale transactions and growing momentum in the secondary market.
This information, released by Prime Yield, on the evolution of NPL in Portugal, was highlighted on Rádio Renascença — a clear sign of the relevance and impact of these figures on the national economic landscape.

Read the full article here

O último ano comprova a trajetória de sucesso na desalavancagem do sistema financeiro nacional, pois apesar dos progressos da última década, o malparado reduziu uma vez mais, diminuindo em €500 milhões, de €4.600 milhões no final de 2024 para €4.100 milhões no final de 2025, o que representa uma descida anual de 11%. O rácio de NPL acompanhou a tendência, comprimindo de 2,3% para os atuais 2,0%, aproximando-se da média europeia (1,8%).

Este desempenho contrasta fortemente com a realidade de há uma década, quando Portugal apresentava um dos níveis mais elevados de incumprimento da Europa. Em 2015, concentrava cerca de 4% do total de NPL europeu, apesar de representar apenas 1% do crédito ativo. Em 2025, mantém essa quota no crédito, mas reduziu o seu peso no malparado europeu para apenas 1%.
A redução do risco ocorreu num contexto de resiliência económica. Em 2025, Portugal registou um crescimento do PIB de 1,9%, acima da média europeia, com previsões de 2,3% para 2026. Em paralelo, o dinamismo do mercado imobiliário — com as vendas residenciais a crescer 8,6%, os preços 17,6% e o crédito à habitação 34% — contribuiu para reforçar a qualidade dos colaterais e sustentar a redução do incumprimento.

“Ao longo da última década, Portugal protagonizou uma transformação estrutural no tratamento do crédito malparado, passando de um dos mercados mais pressionados da Europa para um dos mais eficientes. Este percurso reflete não só a ação dos bancos, mas também a maturidade crescente do ecossistema de investidores e servicers, bem como um enquadramento regulatório mais robusto. Hoje, entramos numa nova fase, marcada por maior seletividade, operações de menor dimensão e um papel crescente do mercado secundário”, afirma Francisco Virgolino, Managing Director da Prime Yield.

De acordo com o mais recente estudo da empresa, “Keep an Eye on the NPL & REO Markets”, o mercado de transação de carteiras de crédito malparado em Portugal está a atravessar um processo de reposicionamento. Em 2025, o volume de vendas terá rondado os €2.000 milhões, refletindo uma recuperação face a 2023 e uma normalização após um 2024 atípico, marcado por uma operação de grande escala, nomeadamente de mais €4.000 milhões envolvendo a venda de projeto Cascais.

“Keep an Eye on the NPL & REO Markets” é um estudo anual realizado pela Prime Yield para analisar a evolução dos principais indicadores do crédito não performativo (NPL – Non-Performing Loans) em Portugal, Espanha, Grécia e Brasil e apresentar uma projeção da dinâmica de transações deste tipo de portfólios.

O estudo realça que a nova fase do mercado de venda de carteiras de crédito é caraterizada pela maior concentração de operadores, crescente atividade no mercado secundário, transações mais seletivas e de menor escala.

De facto, em 2025, a maioria das carteiras diretamente colocadas no mercado português para venda não ultrapassou €200 milhões, demonstrando uma maior fragmentação e seletividade nas transações. De qualquer forma, entre as principais transações monitorizadas em 2025, evidenciam-se a venda do projeto Solaris, de âmbito ibérico, mas como uma exposição de 870€ milhões em Portugal, e do projeto Pegasus, uma carteira de 289 milhões.

Realça-se também a tendência global de concentração e consolidação dos operadores, com impacto direto em Portugal, como a aquisição da Hipoges pela britânica Pollen Street Capital, através da portuguesa Finsolutia, criando um operador com €55 mil milhões em ativos sob gestão na Península Ibérica, Itália e Grécia.

No âmbito do mercado de investimento em NPL, o ano foi ainda marcado pelas alterações legislativas, nomeadamente a entrada em vigor, a 10 de dezembro, do novo Quadro Legal para a Cessão e Gestão de Créditos Bancários, que transpõe para o direito português uma diretiva europeia que deveria ter sido implementada há quase dois anos e que regulamenta as condições para a venda de carteiras de crédito a entidades não financeiras.

Quanto a 2026, a Prime Yield antecipa a continuação destas tendências, “com um mercado mais seletivo, maior relevância do segmento secundário e adaptação progressiva ao novo enquadramento legal para a cessão e gestão de créditos, em vigor desde dezembro” nas palavras de Francisco Virgolino.

Aceda ao estudo AQUI.

Prime Yield has renewed its PME Líder status, receiving this distinction for the eighth consecutive year. Awarded by IAPMEI, the certification recognizes SME companies with outstanding performance, strong financial soundness and a robust risk profile, and acknowledges the success of SME business strategies and their contribution to the national economy.
According to Francisco Virgolino, Prime Yield’s Managing Director: ‘This distinction reflects the strength, consistency and quality of the work we have been doing in the areas of valuations, consultancy and research. We are driven by a commitment to strict standards, independence and trust, which is what our clients and partners expect from us. This milestone would not have been possible without the dedication of our team and the trust of everyone who works with us on a daily basis. We remain focused on growing sustainably while maintaining the high standards that have brought us this far.’
Founded in 2005 and part of the Gloval Group since 2018, Prime Yield provides research, consultancy, and real estate asset valuation services.
The company has achieved PME Líder status in 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, which reinforces recognition of its performance and position in the sector.

Prime Yield has released the 2026 edition of its flagship report, “Keep an Eye on the NPL & REO Markets”, offering fresh insights into non-performing loan (NPL) markets across Southern Europe and Brazil.

This year’s edition highlights a realignment in market performance across the regions analyzed. In Southern Europe, Portugal, Spain, and Greece all recorded reductions in their NPL stock – both on a quarterly and year-on-year basis -, contrasting with a broader European trend, where NPL volumes rose again in Q3 2025.

NPL ratios also improved across these three countries. However, market dynamics differ significantly. Spain and Portugal experienced a slowdown in transaction activity compared to 2024, reflecting more mature markets and reduced primary activity. In contrast, Greece is expected to have seen a notable acceleration in transactions in 2025, driven by the completion of two of the largest deals under the HAPS state securitization program.

In Latin America, the scenario diverges. Brazil saw a sharp increase in default levels in 2025, impacting both the financial system and consumer credit. As a result, NPL portfolio sales expanded, supported by higher volumes of distressed assets and a broader range of sellers, even within the context of a new regulatory framework for banking provisioning.

Ask us for a copy of the full 2026 report to explore a comprehensive analysis of the NPL stock evolution, ratios, and transactions trends across all covered markets.

Read the full article here.

The research is also available here.

Portugal recorded the sharpest annual reduction in the Non-performing Loans (NPLs) stock in Europe, according to Prime Yield’s latest report ‘Investing in NPL in Iberia’. Between the second quarter of 2024 and the same period in 2025, the country reduced its stock-pile of bad debt by 15.7%, reaching a total of €4.3 billion, the lowest figure in the last decade.

Currently, NPLs represent 2.1% of active loans in the Portuguese financial system, a ratio which, although still slightly above the European average (1.8%), confirms the strong deleveraging of the national sector. In 2015, non-performing loans accounted for 19.6% of the total and amounted to around €41.0 billion, i.e. almost ten times more than the current volume.

According to data from the European Banking Authority (EBA), Portugal now holds only 1% of Europe’s total NPLs, ranking among the countries with the lowest stock of this type of credit.

“The reduction in bad debt in Portugal and also in Spain reflects the dual circumstances of tighter restrictions on lending following the financial crisis and the strong momentum in the sale of NPL portfolios in recent years. We are currently dealing with two mature markets in terms of NPL sales, whose financial systems have deleveraged heavily in recent years, so naturally, transactions involving this type of investment asset tend to be at levels far removed from other years,” comments Francisco Virgolino, Managing Director of Prime Yield.

After a 2024 marked by an unprecedented transaction – the sale of the Cascais Project portfolio, worth €4.2 billion – the Portuguese NPL market is showing signs of normalisation this year. By September 2025, transactions totaled around €1.4 billion, already exceeding the turnover for 2024, which, excluding Projeto Cascais, amounted to €1.1 billion.

Prime Yield anticipates that the final figure for 2025 could be even higher, as several transactions are still ongoing.

Prime Yield’s study points to a new phase in the Iberian NPL market. Portugal and Spain are now at different stages of maturity – with the former stabilizing activity and the latter experiencing a more pronounced downturn.
‘Looking ahead, despite the decline in NPL sales activity in the Iberian Peninsula in 2025, both Spain and Portugal continue to stand out as relevant investment markets, leading to more selective strategies on the part of investors. However, strong interest in high-yield assets suggests that specialist investors remain active,’ concludes Francisco Virgolino.

WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS MARKET?

ASK US FOR A COPY OF “INVESTING IN NPL IN IBERIA 2025”.

The report was echoed in the Portuguese press:
Read the article published in Vida Imobiliária here
Read the article published in Jornal Construir here
Read the article published in Diário Imobiliário here
Read the article published in Idealista here

Regarding the Portuguese property market, Prime Yield highlights the positive outlook for commercial property investment this year. It is estimated that activity will at least maintain the level recorded in 2024, amounting to around €2.4 billion, and potentially exceed this figure by 10-15%. It should be noted that property investment recovered by around 40% in 2024, with a significant contribution from the final quarter of the year. This quarter accounted for nearly half of the annual activity and signalled the resumption of large transactions, particularly in the retail sector. This year should see a continuation of this trend, with more favourable macroeconomic conditions and increased global liquidity providing further benefits.

Francisco Virgolino, Prime Yield’s managing director, explains that “Portugal occupies a strong position on the global property investment map. ‘We are undoubtedly on investors’ radars thanks to our high-quality properties and strong performance indicators in terms of occupancy, vacancy rates and rents across several segments.’ The downturn in 2023 was the result of adverse global macroeconomic conditions characterized by inflationary pressure and a sharp rise in interest rates. These factors impacted investors’ liquidity, leverage capacity and confidence. Last year, as this situation improved, activity picked up. With solid fundamentals intact, Portugal recovered in a trajectory common to many other European markets”.

Virgolino added: “Interest rates and inflation are expected to continue the path recorded in 2024. Alongside the positive performance of the Portuguese economy compared to the Eurozone, the holding of elections, and the strength of the labour market, we are optimistic about a continued positive trajectory of property investment.”

In terms of occupational activity, expectations are also positive, including for the office market. “This market began the year in decline after achieving record levels in 2024. Last year, office take-up in Lisbon and Porto reached exceptionally high levels, driven by large scale operations. A slowdown was expected this year, and this is likely to be further aggravated by political uncertainty in the first half of the year, causing companies to postpone decisions. However, with the recent elections and the favourable macroeconomic framework, office occupancy should pick up again. In the other segments, demand is expected to increase, but a lack of supply is still an issue, keeping prices and rents on an upward trend, especially in the housing market,” concludes Francisco Virgolino.

If you want to access to the main findings of the “Investment Guide for Property in Iberia 2025”, be sure to contact us.

Read the article published in Vida Imobiliária here.
Read the article published in Jornal Construir here
Read the article published in Diário Imobiliário here
Read the article published in Idealista here
Read the article published in Magazine Imobiliário here

In an article that echoes the conclusions of our study ‘Investment Guide for Property in Iberia 2025’, El Inmobiliario Mes a Mes notes that the property market in Portugal and Spain ended last year with a performance that confirms its position as a safe haven and strategic destination for investors. Overall, the two countries attracted €16.4 billion in property investment in 2024, marking a significant recovery compared to 2023.

Be sure to read this article from the Spanish press to learn more about the main findings of our latest research on the Iberian market and which emphasises that not only did the Iberian market withstand the global uncertainty, it also emerged stronger.

Our research ‘Investment Guide for Property in Iberia 2025′, was featured in the leading Portuguese property magazine, Vida Imobiliária. The article highlighted that economic and political stability should revive activity in Portugal this year.Our forecasts suggest that the market could exceed €2 billion in transactions once again, reflecting the positive effects of continued monetary policies involving reduced interest rates and inflation control, as well as the stabilisation of the national political situation following the recent elections.

Access the full article in Vida Imobiliária, where you can also read our Managing Director Francisco Virgolino’s opinion on this year’s expected developments.

We invite you to read the full article and to contact us to access this research.