Pragmatically Distributed

Listing a complete catalog of reasons why the Progressive foreign policy establishment is a total failure would be an endless task. But out of the most prominent reasons, their inability to understand basic negotiation strategy stands out. Their ignorance is why their views about the standoff with Iran are wrong.

Fortunately for America, Trump is a master of negotiation; unlike his critics, he gets the concept known as Leverage.

In the Iran standoff it is Trump who holds all the negotiation leverage because Iran has no good options.

Trump holds so many diplomatic cards that he does not have to do anything except wait for Iran to come to its senses and negotiate.

The next move belongs entirely to Iran, and none of their potential moves are attractive.

Iran’s options are primarily-

• Attack America’s Israeli, Saudi, or Gulf Arab proxies with Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon, and/or Iran’s Yemen proxies.
• Attack US forces in the Gulf or Iraq directly with either Iranian proxies or by Iranian forces themselves.
• Attack and/or otherwise disrupt the oil tanker traffic going through the sea lanes around the Arabian Peninsula.

A proxy campaign will fail to accomplish anything aside from getting Iran’s proxies killed because America’s regional proxies have superior military power.

The last two options (especially an attack on American forces) risk Trump responding with his own counterattack against Iran – and he can devastate Iran without the use of US land forces. Instead, he can crush a hypothetical Iranian provocation using only American naval and air power to strike Iran’s vital naval, nuclear, and oil assets.

The Chinese government suddenly walked away from a trade deal that was close to being finalized because they thought their economy could weather the moderately negative short-term effects of Trump’s initial round of tariffs.

But now that Trump has raised tariffs to a higher level, the cost-benefit analysis has changed to a point where I expect China will return to the negotiating table because the short-term economic costs of tariffs are now higher than the costs of making a deal.

Iran is on the verge of learning the hard way two of military history’s greatest lessons – the second lesson is courtesy of yours truly,

• Never fight a conventional war against the United States.
• Never fight a Soviet-style proxy war against the United States without Soviet-level resources.

The second lesson in particular is why Pragmatically Distributed recommended this series of policies as the best way to stress Iran’s proxy war strategy to the breaking point – policies that went against the typically lousy advice of Iran apologist “foreign policy experts”, yet, policies which have since been wisely adopted 100% by the Trump Administration.

To wit, from December 2017 –

Iran – Finally, Iran itself deserves to be subjected to two actions.  The first is for America to reimpose the heavy economic sanctions that were lifted by the Islamic terrorist supporting government of Barack Obama.  Proxy warfare is inherently more suitable for strong states with great resources to distribute to its proxies.  Iran is a weak state with few resources playing a great power’s game.  It should be punished for its overestimation of its own power with the destruction of the Iranian economy, a destruction which by extension will mean Iranian proxies will have fewer Iranian resources to rely on.

 

And, from May 2018 –

The way Tehranologists portrayed Iran is similar to how 1970s Kremlinologists portrayed the Soviet Union; as an unassailable world power that must be accommodated forever by the United States through weak détente.

At least Kremlinologists could, in retrospect, defend their argument by pointing to many objective measures of Soviet strength such as its nuclear arsenal, attack submarines, armored divisions, etc.  Tehranologists, however, could only justify détente with Iran on vague grounds that some “regional conflagration” would break loose if Iran was told “no” or that Iran was a really “moderating” influence in the Middle East.  All of these reasons were minor concerns compared to Soviet Russia.

 

Iran is lashing out because it is only too late realizing it is a minor economic and military actor that has nothing close to the actual capabilities needed to satisfy its great ambitions.

If Trump, for whatever reason, opts in the future for military retaliation against Iran he will most likely want to do at least as much damage as Reagan did in 1988’s Operation Praying Mantis when America devastated half of Iran’s naval assets of that time:

By the end of the operation, U.S. air and surface units had sunk, or severely damaged, half of Iran’s operational fleet.

Continue reading “Hypothetical Airstrike Lists of Iranian Assets Should Include Iran’s Nuclear & Oil Infrastructure”

The grace period is over, the time has come to reduce Biden in size.

The more Biden speaks the more convinced I become that his campaign will run into a ditch by Fall.

Continue reading “Biden’s Poll Lead Will Evaporate by Fall”

I apologize for bringing up facts given how badly Progressives handle reality. But as unpleasant as they find it, I must point out the obstacle in the way of impeachment lies not with Barr’s summary or Trump’s (fully justified) stonewalling on tax records.

Their problem is Pelosi because it is her decision whether to pursue impeachment or not. And she just so happens to agree with Trump and Barr on obstruction due to the fact she will not move on impeachment if the case is based only on a muddled, technical, interpretation of “obstruction of justice”.

Continue reading “Mueller Groupies Should be Furious at Pelosi, not Trump & Barr”

Because of Pragmatically Distributed’s impeccable humanity and generosity of spirit we will give Joe Biden a pinch of time to recover from the mild stroke he suffered  while announcing his bid for President.

Continue reading “Buttigieg is Maltese for Dukakis”

Oh, yes.

The precedents set forth by Ike, Dick, and Dutch should apply to the wives of the approximately 800 male ISIS POWs now in the custody of the US military.

Those women who followed their boyfriends into a long terrorist excursion in Syria with the hope of killing no less than Bashar Assad himself are themselves potential terrorists. Once dealt with by the Syrian court system – which operates on the Islamic world’s robust legal interpretation of victor’s justice – the West will never have to worry about these prisoners reappearing to bring mayhem somewhere else in the West; a reappearance that would no doubt be preceded by a generous stint living off of the West’s multi-trillion dollar welfare hegemon.

Continue reading “Set the Condor Principle in Flight by Transferring ISIS POWs & Their Wives into Assad’s Custody”

We live in an extraordinary time where the world gets to look on in awe as Donald Trump transcends the role of President to reach the level of an American founding father.

Continue reading “The Art of the Trade Deal”

Being the movement of scientific dictatorship, the Progressive movement deserves a Democratic nominee who is as robotic and dictatorial as possible.

And in this weak Democratic primary field the tyrannical iron lady that stands out is none other than America’s own perpetual presidential motion machine herself, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Continue reading “Why the Democratic Primary Could Break for Hillary & How Trump Can Facilitate Her Primary Campaign”

Trump Should Bait Rep. Alexandria Cortez on the Internet to Raise Her Profile

I ignored Cortez because she is an idiot, powerless, and seemed to be irrelevant.

She remains a powerless idiot but she has, through the strength of her own stupidity, suddenly become relevant as a new perfect foil for Trump; at least as good a foil as Pelosi will be for the rest of the year.

Continue reading “The End of Week Circulars for January 13, 2019”