Inspiration:

This post, like many on this blog, is inspired by the Foolish Baseball YouTube channel. If you haven’t checked it out, it’s a great resource for understanding how baseball truly is a game of inches, and how those inches translate to statistical impact.

Player A vs. Player B.

Let’s compare two MLB players from the 2024 season. Their surface level-stats look drastically different:

• Player A: Elite place discipline (OBP over .400), top-tier power (SLG over .500), and a wRC 68% above league average. A lock for the All-Star game and an MVP frontrunner

• Player B: Just happy to be included in this comparison, with a poor batter’s eye and mediocre production

Two very different profiles. But here’s the twist: they’re the same player.

Both are 2024 Aaron Judge.

Player A is Judge after a 1-1 count

Player B is Judge after an 0-2 count

This contrast perfectly illustrates how much a single call can shift a player’s value. Ball/strike calls, especially early in the count, can drastically alter outcomes. And while umpires are better than ever, they’re still human. A single missed strike call in an 0-1 count can turn an MVP into a replacement-level hitter without the bat ever leaving his shoulder.

It happens all year long, not just in high-stakes playoff moments. Players like Aaron Judge with a 6’7” frame are even more susceptible. In his 2018 rookie year, Judge saw 160 pitches at the bottom of the zone. 44.3% were called strikes compared to the league average of just 22.8. No wonder Aaron Boone keeps getting tossed.

So the next time your favorite player gets ejected after arguing a bad call, remember— those calls don’t just hurt in the moment. Over time, they impact contracts, stats, and careers.

Automated Balls and Strikes (ABS) As A Fix

This is exactly why the ABS challenge system is so critical. Imagine you’re Aaron Judge in the above image: it’s an 0-1 count and you just watched a ball sail towards your ankles only for the umpire to call it a strike, putting you in an 0-2 count. By challenging the horrific call, you can instantly increase the odds you get on base by 15% and turn you from a below average hitter into the MVP you truly are.

This makes it even more painful to see these calls being made in 2025, with everyone aware of that the technology is already available (and proven!) to fix this. General managers, coaches, and players alike are fighting to unlock an extra 1-5% of performance every day, only for that improvement to be wiped away for no real reason than “we’ve always done things this way.”

Enough is enough. Players like Aaron Judge have endured this antiquated situation for far too long. And this article is written by a Red Sox fan. Rant over.

Sources

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=judgeaa01&year=2024&t=b

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aaron-judge/15640/splits-tool?position=OF&splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2002-01-01&endDate=2025-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1%2C1

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-judge-is-hitting-better-with-an-even-worse-strike-zone/