Peterson Institute for International Economics

Museum visitors view the original Star-Spangled Banner at the Smithsonian National Museum of American History in Washington, DC. Photo taken on June 14, 2023.

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

America's been arguing over trade for more than 250 years

Douglas A. Irwin (PIIE)

As the United States marks the 250th anniversary of declaring its independence from Britain, Americans continue a tradition begun even longer ago: debating trade and tariffs.

Close up view of a smartphone displaying "AI" (Artificial Intelligence) in front of blurred flags of the United States and China, illustrating technological competition between the two countries. June 2026.

Hans Lucas via Reuters Connect/Imen Ben Youssef

Photo Credit: Hans Lucas via Reuters Connect/Imen Ben Youssef

RealTime Economics

Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

People help to stretch the American Flag out to begin the annual 4th of July celebration parade in Bristol, Rhode Island. July 2021.

REUTERS/Quinn Glabicki

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Quinn Glabicki

Op-Eds

America's future in the post-American world economy

Adam S. Posen (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

University students in silhouette walk across campus prior to the commencement program.

ZUMA Wire/Will Lester

Photo Credit: ZUMA Wire/Will Lester

Policy Briefs

Class dismissed: The effect of international student exclusion on the US STEM workforce and economic growth

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE), Jeremy Neufeld (Institute for Progress) and Amy M. Nice (Cornell Law School; Institute for Progress)

June 23, 2026

PIIE Chart

Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends

Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 22, 2026

What's New

A worker pushes a crate of steamed crabs that are ready for processing at a plant on Maryland's Eastern Shore. The processing plant was chosen through a visa lottery to obtain temporary migrant help for the season. May 2018.

Firms allowed to hire immigrant manual laborers expand to hire more Americans

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE) and Ethan G. Lewis (Dartmouth College)

July 2, 2026

Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

America's future in the post-American world economy

Adam S. Posen (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

Workers from Mexico trim and shape Christmas trees at a tree farm that uses the US Agricultural Department's H-2A visa program to fill their workforce needs, in York, PA. August 2019.

The effect of low-skill immigration restrictions on US firms and workers: Evidence from a randomized lottery

Michael A. Clemens (PIIE) and Ethan G. Lewis (Dartmouth College)

July 2026

PIIE Charts

China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize

Shoumitro Chatterjee (Johns Hopkins University) and Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

June 30, 2026

Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends

Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 22, 2026

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 15, 2026

US "reciprocal" trade deals are designed to constrain China to varying degrees

Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Christine Y. Wan (PIIE)

June 11, 2026

Trade Winds

EU-India free trade agreement: The mother of all deals?

July 8, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT

Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Darpan Jain (Department of Commerce, India) and Christophe Kiener (European Commission)

Jul

Labor markets and structural transformation in times of change: AI and demographic shifts

November 17, 9:00 AM EST to November 18, 2026, 5:00 PM EST

Nov

US Federal Reserve

A detail of a US one hundred dollar bill is displayed in this picture illustration. Picture taken December 2023.

Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence

Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) and Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

June 2026

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board building is seen in Washington, DC. Photo taken on June 14, 2022.

Amid wartime disruptions, most emerging-market central banks will follow the Fed

Alfredo Mendoza-Fernández (University of California, Berkeley), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) and Serra Pelin (PIIE)

April 23, 2026

Patrons exit a supermarket in Florida where consumer prices have soared due to inflation.

The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE)

January 2026

Tariffs

Trucks queue up at the US-Mexico border as the two governments are set to begin a bilateral review of the USMCA trade agreement that will also include Canada. March 12, 2026.

Which states and products risk the greatest losses if the USMCA is terminated?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 11, 2026

Pix, Brazil's electronic payment system, is seen on a smartphone in this photo illustration.

The latest US squeeze on Brazil jeopardizes its financial autonomy

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

June 9, 2026

Shipping containers sit stacked at the port terminal in Le Havre, France.

What does it take for US trading partners to wean themselves from US markets?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 4, 2026

Inflation

Customer paying with cash in Washington, DC.

Prices Are High. Here's One Reason Not to Panic.

Jason Furman (PIIE)

April 10, 2026

via New York Times

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo taken March 11, 2026.

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook clouded by war, other uncertainties

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

A customer shops at a supermarket in New York as consumer prices surged as inflation hits 40-year high.

The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Distilling lessons from the COVID era

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE), editors

February 2026

China

Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China

Martin Chorzempa (PIIE)

July 2, 2026

Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Beijing, met to focus on trade, regional security, and strengthening bilateral ties between the world’s two largest economies. May 2026.

Why the US-China trade war lacks the guardrails of the past

Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE)

June 29, 2026

What does it take for US trading partners to wean themselves from US markets?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

June 4, 2026

In The News

Did Iran make out better from the war?

via CNN

feat. Adnan Mazarei

FACT FOCUS: Trump says illegal immigration increased car insurance premiums. Experts say otherwise

via Associated Press

feat. Michael A. Clemens

Etsy sellers say their previously thriving shops can't rebound from Trump's tariffs

via NBC New York

feat. Gary Clyde Hufbauer

Iran deal brings little relief for inflation-wary central banks

via Financial Times

feat. David Wilcox

Resources

PIIE Chart

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

PIIE Chart

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide (featured)

RealTime Economics

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Microsite

Title
The future of the USMCA

Microsite

Title
What Is Globalization?

PIIE Chart

Subscribe to PIIE Insider!

US Federal Reserve

Tariffs

Inflation

China

Resources

Title Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Title US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Title Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Title The future of the USMCA

Title What Is Globalization?

Title Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Title
The future of the USMCA

Title
What Is Globalization?

Title
Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s