Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Chat
Trump Approval Dashboard
Elon Popularity Tracker
NFL Predictions
On the Edge
Risky Business
Archive
About
Actually, sometimes polls underestimate Democrats
The polling industry doesn't get as much criticism in years like 2025 when surveys overestimate Republicans — but this can be a problem, too.
Jan 14
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
124
25
8
ELWAY NFL projections: Divisional playoffs
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
Jan 13
•
Nate Silver
,
Joseph George
, and
Eli McKown-Dawson
161
69
26
Zohran’s high-risk, high-reward strategy
What will it take for the new mayor to maintain a winning coalition?
Jan 12
•
Nate Silver
110
45
9
QBERT NFL quarterback ratings
Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.
Jan 13
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
160
20
19
So, who’s going to win the Super Bowl?
Our official Silver Bulletin/ELWAY NFL playoff preview.
Jan 7
•
Nate Silver
128
14
7
Models & Forecasts
View all
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
2 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
1,010
217
221
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
2 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
274
71
44
Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, January 2026 update
All the numbers for every pollster, fully updated after 2025.
Jan 14
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
186
33
17
Silver Bulletin pollster ratings 2025 archive
The February 2025 version of the Silver Bulletin pollster ratings created after the 2024 presidential election.
Jan 14
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
2
ELWAY NFL projections: Divisional playoffs
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
Jan 13
•
Nate Silver
,
Joseph George
, and
Eli McKown-Dawson
161
69
26
Thank you for reading Silver Bulletin! If you enjoy our content, we'd encourage you to become a free or paid subscriber.
Subscribe
Politics
View all
Actually, sometimes polls underestimate Democrats
The polling industry doesn't get as much criticism in years like 2025 when surveys overestimate Republicans — but this can be a problem, too.
Jan 14
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
124
25
8
Zohran’s high-risk, high-reward strategy
What will it take for the new mayor to maintain a winning coalition?
Jan 12
•
Nate Silver
110
45
9
The 51 biggest American political moments of the 21st century
For Christmas, I’m giving you a listicle.
Dec 26, 2025
•
Nate Silver
221
86
26
What is Heather Cox Richardsonism?
No longer just a Substack: it's one of the 3 emerging factions of the Democratic Party.
Dec 16, 2025
•
Nate Silver
1,203
230
179
The Democratic base isn’t in the mood to compromise
Jasmine Crockett probably isn’t an optimal Senate candidate. But Democratic voters are angry, and “when we fight, we win” will be a compelling message…
Dec 11, 2025
•
Nate Silver
221
58
18
Sports
View all
So, who’s going to win the Super Bowl?
Our official Silver Bulletin/ELWAY NFL playoff preview.
Jan 7
•
Nate Silver
128
14
7
Keep Houston weird
The Houston Rockets are playing unconventional basketball, but their young core is blasting off.
Nov 21, 2025
•
Joseph George
114
11
6
The NFL has entered the Scorigami Era
Superkickers, rule changes, dual-threat QBs and analytics are changing the sport — and producing weirder scores.
Nov 14, 2025
•
Nate Silver
158
22
16
Bring the big leagues to Mexico City
The rewards outweigh the risks for the NFL, NBA and MLB
Nov 3, 2025
•
Nate Silver
145
35
11
The NBA gambling scandal, explained by an actual gambler
43 thoughts about the biggest betting scandal in years. Not only is it not surprising, but it looked suspicious in real time.
Oct 25, 2025
•
Nate Silver
323
24
22
SBSQ
View all
SBSQ #28: Was Tim Walz gonna lose?
Plus, is Venezuela a political liability for Trump?
Jan 5
•
Nate Silver
131
112
7
SBSQ #27: Is redistricting backfiring on Republicans?
Redistricting 201. Plus, do NFL teams understand game theory? And, should the Knicks trade for Giannis?
Dec 7, 2025
•
Nate Silver
101
43
7
SBSQ #26: Do prediction markets make polls useless?
Plus the 2026 Senate map, Joe Burrow versus Joe Flacco, and why you should do creative work until you die.
Nov 9, 2025
•
Nate Silver
108
49
7
Silver Bulletin
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
Subscribe
Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Nov 5, 2024
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
4,324
5,431
826
How popular is Donald Trump?
2 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
1,010
217
221
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
Nov 3, 2024
•
Nate Silver
744
1,030
83
24 reasons that Trump won
Oct 20, 2024
•
Nate Silver
1,034
961
124
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
Nov 5, 2024
•
Nate Silver
417
313
46
Recent posts
View all
SBSQ #28: Was Tim Walz gonna lose?
Plus, is Venezuela a political liability for Trump?
Jan 5
•
Nate Silver
131
112
7
The Silver Bulletin Year in Review
My favorite posts of 2025, some notes on the business, and a thank you to our readers.
Dec 31, 2025
•
Nate Silver
155
28
8
The 51 biggest American political moments of the 21st century
For Christmas, I’m giving you a listicle.
Dec 26, 2025
•
Nate Silver
221
86
26
I've tracked my last 800 flights. Here's when you really need to get to the airport.
The 2-hour rule is usually a myth.
Dec 24, 2025
•
Nate Silver
391
98
25
Did Las Vegas get too greedy?
There's not a recession or a pandemic, but visitors are down almost 8 percent this year. What's going wrong?
Dec 21, 2025
•
Nate Silver
341
68
24
See all
Recommendations
View all 55
Wrong Side of History
Ed West
The Honest Broker
Roger Pielke Jr.
Understanding AI
Timothy B. Lee
Noahpinion
Noah Smith
Ettingermentum Newsletter
ettingermentum
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts
