A new or a more intensified front has opened for Russia in Mali where Russia’s Africa Corp supports Mali government forces against secessionist forces. These include Taureg rebels and ISIS-style insurgents, in a coalition of trouble which reportedly benefits from Algerian and French support. This is an evolution of the situation that has its roots in the ousting of French occupation forces in 2021 and the subsequent forced vacating of France from the Sahel generally in favor of Russian Wagner and later Africa Corps forces. France has not forgotten this rude interruption to the flow of imperial monopoly profit.

The African front is an additional bar of red light to add to the far graver certainty of sustained European hostility to Russia, to the point that Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov openly talks of a declared war between Russia and Europe. Europe’s ability to fight such a war by itself, without the assurance of US support any time soon is close to zero. The odds are made worse by the Gulf crisis putting further pressure on the costs of energy needed to assist the much talked-about but generally unconvincing ramping up of European arms production.

A split in Europe between those countries who prefer the practical option of relatively cheap trade relations with their neighboring major power and those who persist in an obsessively and ideologically driven commitment to a knowingly unreliable, treacherous and declining power on the far side of the Atlantic seems increasingly inevitable. Like Napoleon the latter believe they have a monopoly on what constitutes “reason” and want to impose their version on everyone by force.

In Ukraine there are regular nightly exchanges of hundreds of drones between Russia and Ukraine. It is clear that large numbers of these on both sides are taken down by air defenses but that significant numbers get through, find their targets, and inflict damage. While getting considerably worse in the past few months this has been going on for over four years and despite the constant barrage of mutual destruction the war continues, and neither side appears in a mood to fold. If anyone is “winning” it is Russia - on the basis of its territorial gains, the scale of its population, and the size of available military forces and weapons superiority, but I grow increasingly skeptical of claims as to drones, the numbers launched, the damage done, the success rate of air defenses, the volumes of air defense interceptors, just as I have long grown skeptical of all claims as to losses and casualties, and the speed with which Ukrainian or Russian economies are going to “collapse.”

That there is a Russian Spring offensive seems beyond doubt, as are the imminent threats to Konstantynivka, Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kiev, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Orikhiv,, Zapporizhzhia, and Odessa.

In the Gulf we at least have the good news that there was nobody to meet and greet Trump’s ghouls in Islamabad but that Araghchi is headed for Moscow where he will meet with Lavrov, recently returned from Beijing. Heightened prospects for a tightening China-Russia-Iran alliance seem inevitable.

The US has significantly escalated the conflict by extending its blockage to all Iranian vessels anywhere and to Chinese ships carrying Iranian oil amidst new swathes of (US) sanctions against Iran and China and EU sanctions against Russia.

People may deride a US blockade that is evaded by a significant number of Iranian tankers but one needs to monitor the decline in the overall number of tankers that can travel through the Gulf in contrast with how the volume used to be: Iran is down by half.

In the meantime, Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz says he is waiting for Trump (the very same Trump who has been recently pestering his chief of staff for the nuclear access codes) to blink the green light for Israel to “take Iran back to the Stone Age”, while Israel - despite any or all ‘ceasefires’ - to murder large numbers of innocents in Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon. Murder with impunity, murder with only the slightest sounds of dismay from totally complicit US and European nations whose claims to stand for freedom are betrayed daily by policies of persecution (dispossession, deportation, denaturalization) voices of protest. A surprise that Spain - that grossly underestimated center of intelligence, morality and creativity in the modern world - is leading the call for dissolution of ties to Tel Aviv.

For later discussion: practically all indicators of climate change on red alert.

My main takeaways on the eve of this final April weekend fall well within what I assess to be mainstream expectations:

(1) resumption of outright hostilities between Iran and US as a third aircraft carrier (George W. Bush) arrives in the zone, Trump threatens to kill more Iranian leaders, orders navy to murder more people in small boats and Israel’s Defense Minister, Katz, awaits “green light” from Washington to send Iran back to “stone age”; I anticipate both air and ground operations;

(2) pointless 3-week extension of a ceasefire in Lebanon where nobody ceases fire, - least of all the aggressive invader, Israel;

(3) pick-up of a Russian Spring offensive in Ukraine that will focus principally on the fall of Kupyansk, extension of Russian buffer zone down to Sumy, fall of Konstantianivka and preparations for the Russian taking of the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatosrsk, increasing pressure on Kharkiv , Dnipro-Petrovsk, Zapporizhzhia, and Odessa, and intensification of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea as Russia marries new satellite network to naval drones, all this amidst

(4) mounting European aggression towards Russia which will have the couerproductive consequences of increasing energy costs for Europe even as Russia responds to European aggression with preparations for war. For ther WSWS, Johannes Stern (Stern) writes:

“On Wednesday, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces), Carsten Breuer, presented a comprehensive military strategy for the first time in the history of the Bundeswehr. Even though key parts of the document remain classified, the excerpts that have been released leave no doubt as to its nature: Germany is systematically preparing for a major war—particularly against Russia.”

Although I do not believe it has been satisfactorily confirmed, stories (from Larry Johnson, confirmed by Robert Barnes) are still circulating to the effect that President Trump recently asked the Chief of Staff Dan Caine for the nuclear access codes, which Caine refused. This may be related to the firing of US Navy Secretary John Phelan (a billionaire, by the way) on April 22, 2026, by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth following months of tension over slow shipbuilding progress and internal Pentagon infighting.

Iran

Towards the end of the day of Friday, April 24, the White House announced that Witkoff and Kushner were being sent back to Pakistan this weekend. They were due to leave Saturday. The White House spokesperson claimed that the Iranians had requested this. She said that everyone else would be on standby to fly to Pakistan if necessary.

It is very difficult to believe that Iran would have requested another round at this point or that they have any tolerance whatsoever for further meetings with Trump’s Zionist ghouls or would be so reckless as to their personal safety to travel yet again to Islamabad when Pakistan’s neutrality every day more comes into question.

But the announcement comes at a time when Iranian foreign minister Araghchi is reported to be about to embark on a trip to Islamabad, Moscow and Oman. Some reports say Araghchi will be in Islamabad this evening.

At the same time AP reported that President Donald Trump’s administration is placing economic sanctions on a major China-based oil refinery and roughly 40 shipping companies and tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil. The agency comments:

“The move, announced Friday and first reported by The Associated Press, makes good on Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions on companies and countries that do business with Iran. It’s also part of his Republican administration’s overall ramped-up campaign to cut off Iran’s key source of revenue — its oil exports.”

In response to several US interventions to either force Iran-related ships to turn around or to physically detain them, Tehran has escalated its “gunboat diplomacy” in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing at least two foreign vessels, thus challenging the US blockade

Israel

Kevin Barrett has an informative column today on evidence of Pentagon deference to Israel on Iran (Barrett).

Gaza

In Countercurrents Gideon Polya (Polya)discusses the significant undercount of Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. An April 2026 Lancet paper gives what Polya describes as undercounting estimate of 134,241 Gaza deaths over 2 years from violence (120,551) and deprivation (counted as 13,690 excess deaths from deprivation). Mainstream media report about 70,000 Gaza deaths. Polya estimates that the paper undercounts by 6.5-fold the 875,000 Gaza deaths from violence and imposed deprivation over the first 2 years of the Gaza Genocide.

Russia-Ukraine & Europe

On April 23, 2026, the European Union formally adopted its 20th package of sanctions against Russia, a comprehensive set of measures designed to cut Russia’s energy revenues, cripple its military-industrial complex, and combat sanctions circumvention. This package, finalized after Hungary and Slovakia lifted their veto, was passed alongside a €90 billion financial loan for Ukraine.

Key measures:

(1) Shipping: Sanctions were imposed on 46 additional vessels, bringing the total number of restricted “shadow fleet” tankers to 632, which are now banned from EU ports and services. A ban was placed on providing maintenance and terminal services for Russian LNG tankers and icebreakers, with a complete ban on providing LNG terminal services taking effect on January 1, 2027. The Russian ports of Murmansk and Tuapse, along with the Karimun Oil Terminal in Indonesia, were blacklisted for their role in oil price cap evasion. New due diligence requirements for selling tankers were introduced to prevent them from being used for Russian oil transportation.

(2) An additional 20 Russian banks were added to the transaction ban list, bringing the total number of banks excluded from EU markets to 70. (2) Finance: An additional 20 Russian banks were added to the transaction ban list, bringing the total number of banks excluded from EU markets to 70. A blanket sectoral ban was imposed on transactions with any Russian crypto asset service provider (CASP). Transactions with the Russian digital ruble and the ruble-backed RUBx stablecoin were prohibited. Four banks in Kyrgyzstan, Laos, and Azerbaijan were listed for helping Russia bypass sanctions.

(3) Trade: New bans were imposed on importing Russian metals, chemicals, and minerals, as well as exporting specific EU goods (rubber, tractors) worth over €530 million combined. For the first time, the EU officially activated its anti-circumvention tool, banning the export of specific sensitive technologies to Kyrgyzstan, which was identified as a persistent, systematic re-export hub for Russia.

(4) Military: The package designated 58 companies involved in manufacturing drones and other military goods, including entities in China, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Belarus.

(5) Other: 120 additional individuals and entities were added to the sanctions list, covering oligarchs, officials involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children, and propagandists. The broadcast ban was extended to include “mirror sites” that copy prohibited media outlets. New protections were introduced for EU firms against retaliatory lawsuits filed by Russian entities in Russia.

As of April 2026, the European Union has severely curtailed its energy reliance on Russia, with total gas dependence dropping to roughly 12%—down from 45% in 2021—and oil imports falling to under 3%. The EU has adopted legislation to phase out all remaining Russian pipeline and LNG imports by autumn 2027, having already banned coal and most seaborne oil.

While significantly reduced, Russia still supplies around 12–13% of EU gas imports (pipeline and LNG), representing over 15 billion euros annually. As of early 2026, the EU has introduced a stepwise ban, with immediate restrictions on short-term LNG contracts and full bans scheduled for 2027. Reliance on Russian oil has dropped to less than 3% by 2025, largely driven by the ban on seaborne crude and the phase-out of refined product imports. Major infrastructure, including Nord Stream 1 and 2, remains largely inoperative following sabotage in 2022. The REPowerEU plan mandates a total phase-out of Russian energy to curb funding for the war in Ukraine, replacing imports with supplies from Norway, the U.S., and other partners. The EU has officially adopted regulations to fully phase out Russian gas by the end of 2027.

The Duran (Duran) reports on NATO nuclear escalation.

Finland has moved a step closer to nuclear alignment, submitting a proposal to parliament that would remove legal barriers to importing, transporting, and possessing nuclear weapons. The measure would allow the country to host such systems under NATO structures, a shift framed as defensive but read elsewhere as escalation. The timing is difficult to ignore. Recent warnings from Moscow directed at Finland and the Baltic region appear to have had little visible effect. Instead of restraint, Helsinki’s response signals readiness to operate on a higher rung of deterrence. Whether this is calculated positioning or a gamble dressed as policy remains unclear, but the message is unmistakable: the northern flank is no longer treating nuclear presence as hypothetical.

Although I do not believe it has been satisfactorily confirmed, stories (from Larry Johnson, confirmed by Robert Barnes) are still circulating to the effect that President Trump recently asked the Chief of Staff Dan Caine for the nuclear codes, which Caine refused.

Cuba

Kurt Nimmo for Global Research (Nimmo) writes that the Trump administration has declared a two-week deadline on Cuba to release two “high-profile” prisoners, Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and Maykel Castillo Pérez (aka Maykel Osorbo). These are described as dissident artists from the San Isidro movement (Movimiento San Isidro, MSI). Alcántara is described as a performance artist from the El Cerro neighborhood of Havana, while Pérez is known as a musician and author of Patria y Vida (Homeland and Life), a work described as a rallying cry for Cuban dissidents. Nimmo concludes his piece saying”

Trump and the Republicans are desperate to move on from the disaster of the failed effort to conduct regime change in Iran. Cuba, like Venezuela, presents far easier target for Trump. Cuba is on the verge of becoming a failed state with serious economic and social issues, including energy blackouts as a result of Trump’s oil embargo, and a staggering rate of poverty, most of it due to decades of a US-imposed embargo.

Severe Jet Fuel Shortages

Forbes reports that jet fuel shortages are causing severe disruptions due to the Iran war disrupting Middle East supplies, prompting airlines to cut flights and add fuel surcharges. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is creating immediate reliance on alternative supply chains. Key hubs are looking to diversify supply from Africa, and the U.S. Shortages are already being experienced in parts of Asia, with China and Thailand, halting exports and causing shortages in markets like Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan. Major carriers including Lufthansa, Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines, Qantas, and Air France-KLM are reducing capacity and increasing ticket prices. Europe risks running out of fuel within weeks, with shortages already impacting parts of Asia. The IAE warns that Europe risks running out of fuel within weeks, with shortages already impacting parts of Asia. The crisis is expected to last months or longer. Germany’s Lufthansa is cutting 20,000 flights, while Air Transat is reducing capacity by 6% to Europe and the Caribbean. Airlines are hiking fuel surcharges to combat rising prices (e.g., HK Express 34% increase).

Impacts on China

As I posted yesterday the US blockade is ineffective, since as many as 34 Iranian ships have passed through or around it so far. The U.S. Navy has intercepted at least four Iranian oil tankers in waters near India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka in recent days, redirecting them as part of its naval blockade on Iran (Reuters, cited by Drop Site News).

U.S. Central Command confirmed that the supertanker Dorena is under Navy escort in the Indian Ocean, with the Department of War reporting forces seizure of the tanker Majestic X also in the Indian Ocean; shipping sources also reported the interception of the Deep Sea and the Sevin, while a fifth vessel, the Derya, may have been stopped after last being tracked off India’s west coast Friday. CENTCOM also claimed to have directed 31 vessels to turn around or return to port as part of its blockade against Iran in a post on X.

Additionally, President Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, adding “there is to be no hesitation.” The Pentagon says that fully clearing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months and would likely not begin until the war ends. This all presumes that Iran actually has mined the Strait, something I would think could be counterproductive in many ways to its attempts to establish controlled passage as opposed to seeking to stop all passage, so I have my doubts as to truth of claims that the Strait has indeed been mined.

Trump also claims that there could be fresh talks with Iran within the week, something I also find very doubtful. All the usual objections remain: negotiations with the US are dangerous to the physical safety of negotiators; the US is incapable of good faith negotiation and its negotiators are both incompetent and, in the case at least of Kushner and Witkoff, Zionist and depraved; Iran holds the strongest cards right now as the world teeters at the brink of recession or depression; Iran has the capacity to destroy its immediate neighbors and to inflict considerable damage on US assets in the region and on Israel. There are problems too with the presumed mediator, Pakistan, as I have noted before. Pakistan is not neutral. It is a close military ally of Saudi Arabia. It is also desperately impacted by fuel shortages, and desperation is not a positive thing in a mediator. Pakistan also, according to Drop Site News Analysts has deepened financial ties with figures close to President Donald Trump.

As for the Iranian ships that have evaded the blockade, one must bear in mind that this is only half of the number of ships that would normally have got through. This means that Iran is losing half of the income that it would otherwise earn, and that China, already impacted by the loss of oil from Venezuela, is now receiving only half of the amount that it would normally expect to receive from Iran. The flow of oil and gas to China from the Middle East overall has dropped significantly - Reuters assesses this as a reduction of 31%-52%, forcing China to look around the world for alternative sources, find this to be difficult. Yes, China is largely self-sufficient in energy, but this is in part due to its continuing heavy reliance on coal power, so the loss of Iranian and Venezuelan and non-Iranian Middle East sources is something highly undesirable from an environmental point of view, and also something that cannot be reversed at short notice. A resumption of violence over the Iranian and US blockades will strike further at Chinese energy imports. Brian Berletic at New Atlas (Berletic) interprets this as a successful US bid to hit at Chinese rivalry for global hegemony. The goal is simply to shut off all sources of energy to China, with the added benefit, for the US and Israel, of what it hopes will be downfall of Iran, although that bit of the plan does not seem to be working out too well.

The US contains China through a multi-layered strategy of military encirclement (island chains, bases - e.g. in Japan, Philippines, Guam), technological restrictions (e.g. strict export controls on semiconductors, artificial intelligence chips and manufacturing equipment), and economic pressure (tariffs, investment restrictions) to hinder its rapid development. Regional security alliances (Quad, AUKUS) and support for Taiwan (Taiwan Relations Act) are key, aimed at countering Chinese influence and preventing military dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

Other Impacts

For the WSWS, Jordan Shilton (Shilton) writes on the economic fallout from the US-instigated war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Disruption of energy supplies are reverberating around the world and include rising fuel costs, higher electricity prices, escalating transportation expenses for billions of people, high prices for fertilizers, increased production costs for crops and reduced harvests, made worse by shipping disruptions, compounded by heightened insurance premiums and rerouted trade flows. Even traffic that is not directly impacted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade is affected. In addition to three thousand Iranian deaths, two million Iranian workers have lost their jobs.

Because over 80% of crude and LNG normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz is destined for countries in the Asia-Pacific, fuel prices have risen sharply in Ihere. In Indonesia, nickel producers have cut output by at least 10 percent due to shortages of natural gas and sulphur. Severe disruptions to the garment factories of Bangladesh have also been reported due to a lack of polyester and nylon, fossil fuel byproducts used to make clothing. High-end production, including of semiconductors essential for producing chips built in Taiwan, faces problems. Qatar produced a third of the world’s helium, a critical component of the semiconductor production, but it stopped production on March 2. Remittances from millions of workers from South Asia and Africa who are employed in the Gulf region have been significantly disrupted.

In Africa, Nigeria has seen fuel prices rise by over 50 percent, despite the country being a massive oil producer and exporter. In Kenya, the fuel price regulator hiked petrol prices by over 16 percent and diesel prices by over 24 percent in mid-April, following a 68 percent increase. The surge in natural gas prices and prices for fertilizers has driven up costs for African farmers, threatening lower crop yields and outright famine in areas where subsistence farming prevails. Currency depreciation in several countries is amplifying the impact of global price increases, making imports even more expensive, eroding real wages and pushing up already crippling debt repayment costs for financially strapped governments.

There is a broad threat to the integrity of the global financial system. Nick Beams (Beams) cites a recent letter to G20 finance ministers and central bankers from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey who has warned of vulnerabilities including: “stretched asset valuations; the build-up in the non-bank sector of high and increasingly concentrated leverage; and liquidity mismatches [the use of short-term money to finance long-term illiquid assets], opacity and growing complexity in certain markets, notably private credit.” It said there was “an increased likelihood that multiple vulnerabilities could crystalize at the same time, thereby amplifying the threat to financial stability and the provision of critical financial services.”

Economist Mike Hudson (Hudson) has warned that the US economy is built on a Ponzi scheme that depends on continuing to pour money into a bloated, bubbly financial system based on unsustainable speculation, not industrial production.

Declining Empire

It is important, I think, to distinguish between Berletic’s view of an aggressive US empire in competition with its nearest rival, China - which could still suggest a vibrant empire, one that may yet achieve its ambitions of unipolarity - as against that of Alfred McCoy (McCoy), who argues that the US is following a historical script of imperial decline, one symptom of which is “micro-militarism:"

“Writing more than 2,000 years ago, the Greek historian Plutarch gave us an eloquent description of what modern historians now call “micro-militarism.” When an imperial power like Athens then, or America now, is in decline, its leaders often react emotionally by mounting seemingly bold military strikes in hopes of regaining the imperial grandeur that’s slipping through their fingers. Instead of another of the great victories the empire won at its peak of power, however, such military misadventures only serve to accelerate the ongoing decline, erasing whatever aura of imperial majesty remains and revealing instead the moral rot deep inside the ruling elite.

There is mounting historical evidence that America is indeed an empire in steep decline, while President Donald Trump’s war of choice against Iran is becoming the sort of micro-military disaster that helped destroy successive empires over the past 2,500 years — from ancient Athens to medieval Portugal to modern Spain, Great Britain, and now the United States. And at the core of every such ill-fated war-making decision lay a problematic leader, often born into wealth and prestige, whose personal inadequacies reflected and ramified the many irrationalities that make imperial decline such a painful process.”

Israeli Atrocities

Owen Jones has a devastating piece (Jones) Israel is raping Palestinians with dogs.

In Lebanon, in the context of so far fruitless talks between the US, Israel and Lebanon in the US State Department Israeli violations of the ceasefire continue with airstrikes, demolitions, and forced displacement orders. The Israeli military re-issued warnings ordering residents not to approach areas near the Litani River, while prohibiting returns to dozens of villages across southern Lebanon. Prominent Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil was killed after what appeared to be a targeted Israeli strike. Israeli newspaper Haaretz reports that Israeli soldiers have been looting significant amounts of property from homes and businesses in southern Lebanon, according to testimonies given to Haaretz by Israeli soldiers and commanders stationed inside the country, including stealing motorcycles, televisions, paintings, sofas, and rugs on a wide scale.

From Drop Site News (Drop Site) we learn that over the last 24 hours, six Palestinians were killed and 18 were injured in Israeli attacks across Gaza.

“At least nine Palestinians, including three children, were killed in Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip on Wednesday and Thursday, according to WAFA. At least sixteen Palestinians have been killed by settler gunfire in the occupied West Bank since the beginning of the year, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry—surpassing the total killed by settlers in 2025. Additionally, over 24 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli soldiers in the occupied territory since the start of 2026, reported OCHA. Data from the Wall and Settlement Resistance Commission shows that Israeli forces and settlers carried out 1,819 attacks in March alone, including 1,322 by Israeli forces and 497 by settlers.”

Reporting for The Intercept, journalist Sam Biddle (Biddle) warns of propaganda outlets posing as regular news sites. The story concerns Al-Fassel and Pishtaz News that publish pro-U.S. coverage about the war on Iran and the Trump administration’s plan to redevelop Gaza.

“Al-Fassel’s YouTube account, for instance, has racked up millions of views on Arabic-language videos praising the Trump administration’s Gaza policy and exhorting Hamas to cease “taking orders from the Iranian regime” and release Israeli prisoners. On Pishtaz News, a poll on the homepage recently asked: “[H]ow would you describe your belief about the Supreme Leader’s current health status and whereabouts?” Possible answers range from “In good health but hiding” to “Disfigured” or “Dead.” The excellence of Saudi and Emirati leadership, both close military partners of the U.S., is a recurring theme.”

Russia-Ukraine

Following up on his commentary yesterday as to Putin’s vulnerability to growing public and elite unrest over the seemingly interminable or at least inconclusive war for the Donbass and its economic consequences, Gilbert Doctorow (Doctorow) cites the address yesterday by Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, who has warned that there may be a repetition of the revolutionary 1917 scenario in contemporary Russia. This allegedly set Russian social networks afire. While I do think it is very likely that our knowledge of internal political struggles in Russia is grossly under-reported and misreported, I think Doctorow may be in danger of paying too much attention to the eternal presence of the discontents who figure in every regime everywhere at every time. Further, he seems insufficiently alert to the contradictions that exist between the inconveniences and frustrations that beset many ordinary Russians in a way that might well and probably should remind them of the initial promises of the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, and the business preoccupations of Russian elites whose commitment to capitalism is total. Among the major sources of discontent are high interest rates that the Russian Central Bank has used as an instrument to moderate excessive growth that threatened in 2025 and to contain inflation, up until now reasonably effectively but which have now led to a 1.5% decline in GDP.

European leaders in Brussels have released the €90bn loan for Ukraine that will keep it in the fight with Russia for another two years. Ukraine announced yesterday it was turning the Druzhba oil pipeline back on, and Hungary and Slovakia both said they would sign off on the loan – if the oil actually arrived. The deal is not actually signed as both Bratislava and Budapest are still considering it. Brussels has also passed the twentieth sanctions package that will be imposed against Russia. However, that was gutted of some of its most painful measures by vested interests. IntelliNews reports that this money includes a distribution of €45bn for this year. About two thirds will go on defense. It is also enough for the first three quarters of next year. There's still about €50bn missing which Brussels intends to raise from the other G7 members - although they have not committed to that yet. According to IntelliNews, Ukraine has suffered a massive population decline - around 20 million - and is desperately short of soldiers. One source may possibly be deportations of Ukrainian male refugees from Europe (I posted on this the other day, indicating there is a lot of confusion as to what exactly is going on); and another may be the almost certainly overhyped arrival on the battlefield of robots, although I agree that, like drones, these do have the potential to fundamentally change the nature of warfare. Whether Ukraine is uniquely advantaged in this respect I very much doubt. Anything Ukraine (or should we simply say NATO?) has shown itself able to do technologically the Russians have shown they can do the same or better. Of course, this is a game in which the Pentagon also has great interest. Ken Klipperstein (Klipperstein) reports the U.S. military’s secretive Special Operations Command plans to establish its first-ever center for AI-driven missions like targeted assassinations.

“Autonomous warfare is all the rage at the Pentagon, where computers and artificial intelligence process intelligence data, select targets and then transmit kill orders to a waiting robot, or a “loitering” missile or airplane.”

The new “Special Operations Autonomous Warfare Center” is referenced in the $1.5 trillion Department of War budget request to Congress this week.

From a Pentagon point of view a continuing war in Ukraine could establish an excellent research drone for automated killing.

America

But at least Russia political apparatus does not suffer the same abysmal lack of legitimacy as Wall Street Journal columnist Damian Paletta (WSJ) tells us is the case of US Congress:

Americans universally loathe that branch of government.

Just 10% of Americans approve of Congress, according to a new Gallup poll. That’s just a smidge above the record low of 9%. This is sharply down from March 2025, when 31% of Americans approved of Congress. No more.

The big collapse in support, according to Gallup, has come from Republicans bailing on the U.S. legislature. Democrats were already pretty down on it. Currently, just 3% of Democrats approve of Congress

Iran

In the wake of the US piratical seizure yesterday of a China-bound Iranian tanker, carrying $200m worth of oil, in the Indian Ocean, the US has effectively provided Iran an incentive to begin to seize any of the hundreds of equivalent tankers now caught in the Gulf so as to guarantee itself a continuing supply of fuel (well, it hardly needs that) and the value of whatever the US steals. In the case of the Tifni, the US has stolen Chinese money and can expect a different kind of retaliation from that source.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) today escalated regional tensions by opening fire on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequently seizing two of them. The IRGC Navy confirmed it captured the Greek-owned cargo ship Epaminondas the container ship MSC Francesca. The third ship, the Euphoria is said to have been “stranded” on the Iranian coast. The vessels were met with gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades, resulting in significant damage to the bridge of the Epaminondas.

A Turkish news agency, AA, citing the Financial Times, reports that at least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it began, including several carrying Iranian oil. Almost a billion dollars’ worth of oil has been transiting Iran over the past few days, despite the US blockade.

On the downside, CNN reports multiple oil spills spreading across the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are visible from space after Iranian and U.S.-Israeli strikes hit oil facilities and vessels in the region.

The notion, as suggested in some places, that the US, in an unusual play at cleverness, thinks it is hitting at China by forcing it to redirect Chinese naval forces from the Strait of Taiwan, is ridiculous. The departure of three, five, ten or twenty Chinese ships from the Strait of Taiwan in no way depletes the strength of China’s hand over its own territory, Taiwan which, we should always remember, depends on trade with China. As of early 2026, mainland China (including Hong Kong) remains one of Taiwan’s largest trading partners, though its share has shifted due to supply chain diversification. In 2025, China and Hong Kong accounted for 26.6% with the United States surpassing it as the top export market at 30.9%. 20% of Taiwan’s imports come from China. Total two-way trade, therefore, keeps China in a major, albeit decreasing, position.

China is largely self-sufficient (85%) in energy and, with its rapid development of the EV sector it will become increasingly more self-sufficient.

Trump says he has extended the ceasefire indefinitely but that the US will sustain the blockade until Iran comes up with a “proposal” of some kind, a proposal that he assumes would include such things as the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s giving up of its stocks of enriched uranium. Notice that essentially, and in all honesty, there is very little difference between what Trump now wants and the position as it stood before the US and Israel launched their second major unprovoked attack on Iran within the space of a year. Because the Strait of Hormuz was then open, and there has always been a solution to the issue of enriched uranium since this was a feature embedded within the JCPOA which Trump scuttled during his first term.

Trump’s new position does give him and the US armed forces more breathing space to regroup and rearm. CNN reports that US weapons stockpiles, notably those used by the navy, have been significantly depleted. It says that the US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during the war with Iran and created a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition in a future conflict should one arise in the next few years, according to experts and three people familiar with recent internal Defense Department stockpile assessments.

Even most US sources now acknowledge that Iran’s missile strength is still very considerable and, for all the US knows, Iran has been augmenting that strength during the war with its own underground production facilities and aid from Russia or China or both. Trump’s new position also gives Iran more breathing time. It gives the US some kind of advantage over China against which China can retaliate in countless ways, including complete cessation of the supply of militarily essential rare earths. It also gives plenty of time for provocations, misjudgments and accidents that could easily trigger World War Three.

Trump’s approval rating has slumped to 36% (Reuters-Ipsos) and dropped to 37% in an NBC news poll over the weekend. The Hill notes that most polls in the past month show Trump’s approval hovering in the 30s.

The notion of an extended “ceasefire,” as anything associated with Trump would suggest, is also nonsensical if it means, as it seems to mean, that Israel can continue to murder Lebanese citizens and seize Lebanese territory, and can continue to seize Iranian ships on open seas or ships heading for or departing from Iranian ports, and if Trump can bring an end to this nonsensical “ceasefire” and replace it with aerial warfare or ground operations at any time. Drop Site News (Drop Site) reports that Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research and National Center for Natural Hazards and Early Warning recorded 220 Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement across more than 15 categories in the roughly 72 hours between midnight April 16 and noon April 19, according to figures published by legal research organization Al-Mofakira Al-Qanouniya.

“The violations included 52 artillery bombardments, 50 mining and detonation operations, 30 aerial violations by combat and surveillance aircraft, 15 ground patrols with automatic weapons, 7 airstrikes, 4 phosphorus bomb and sonic device deployments, and 62 additional recorded incidents. Three people were killed and seven were injured during the period, including four paramedics.”

News of US stoppage to Iraq of oil revenue belonging to Iraq is a reminder of the kind of control that the US would ideally like to be able to exercise over Iranian oil. Drop Site news (Drop Site) cites the Wall Street Journal to the effect that the Trump administration has blocked nearly $500 million cash delivery from Iraqi oil sale proceeds held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and frozen security cooperation programs with Baghdad’s military, in an effort to pressure Iraq into taking action against Iranian-aligned armed groups.

“It is the second such shipment delayed since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February. Under a post-2003 arrangement, Washington holds Iraq’s oil revenues at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and ships up to $13 billion annually in physical cash to Baghdad to keep its cash-dependent economy functioning.”

In the case of Iran, however, the situation is very different, since US pressure on Iran 9s being exercised through the instrument of a blockade which is proving ineffective and which it is impossible for the US to sustain indefinitely. His armed forces are insufficient for either an effective ground force (which currently stands far below that which was necessary to overthrow Iraq’s Sadam Hussein in 2030) or for effective air control - given the continuing presence of a vast Iranian missile armory and which is no match for the existential damage that Iran can inflict upon the neighboring Gulf countries. One of these, the UAE, has warned that it might have to start trading in Chinese yuan in the global oil market. news was seen as an “implicit threat” by the American government, which believes according to one commentator (Lucas Leiroz de Almeida) that Abu Dhabi is trying to break its historical ties with Washington in favor of closer relations with China.

Ukraine

There are reports, and I am unsure at the moment what weight to give them, that Kushner and Witkoff are expected to visit Moscow soon to discuss both the Ukraine and the Iranian conflicts. If so - and for the moment it is debatable - I think this is a sad commentary on the state of Russian diplomacy. There are no conceivable grounds that would justify continuing Russian connivance with these ghouls who regularly assist the US exploit negotiations for the purposes of war and murder.

In the meantime, we hear commentator Gilbert Doctorow, on the basis of his scrutiny of Russian popular media express the view this morning in interview with Judge Napolitano that Putin is in trouble, that the Russian public is tired of the constant Russian mainstream media celebration of the “cult of personality” that surrounds Putin. This is in the context of a war in Ukraine that after four years seems to continue interminably, and which seems never to respond with teeth to the numerous Western provocations in direct collaboration with or secretly behind Ukraine and other acts of violence against Russian targets, against its nuclear triad and against Putin himself. The Russian public is highly respectful and admiring of Iranian courage resilience in the face of imperial aggression, and Doctorow says this puts Putin’s caution with respect to Ukraine in a poor light.

There has been a recent decline in Putin’s popularity rating, but this is still high, at 67%, compared to many if not most world leaders both in the past and now. What I think Doctorow is mainly fingering is a growing unease within a context of broad public respect for Putin, but sufficient to confirm the doubts of a significant section of the leadership who may now be increasing pressure on Putin to chart a new approach to the war in Ukraine.

Reuters (Reuters) has reported the unusual Kremlin acknowledgment of criticism of the authorities from a celebrity blogger, Viktoria Bonya. A video appeal she made to President Vladimir Putin this week was ​watched more than 20 million times and liked over 1 million times on Instagram. None of this, so far as I can tell, is related directly to the war in Ukraine.

Europe

I would note, in the meantime, that Russia faces a fresh source of trouble in talk from Moldova that, with EU backing, Moldova will send a force to expel Russian peacekeepers from pro-Russian Transnistria. Russia has vowed to respond. It is occurring at a moment of growing tensions, as I have posted here recently, between Ukraine and Belarus, possibly leading to a further build-up of Russian forces in Belarus in preparation for an invasion of Ukraine (a scenario which seems to run against the tenor of Doctorow’s comments above). In the meantime, Russia is threatening Germany that it will deprive Germany of its “secret” source of Russian oil by closing off supplies to Germany via Kazakhstan. This would be a form of retaliation against Germany’s hosting of drone-production facilities on behalf of Ukraine. Doctorow’s comments might encourage us to consider whether this is further evidence of Russian preparation and readiness for a war with Europe.

Meantime, Johannes Stern reports for the World Socialist Web Site (WSWS) that the German government on Monday summoned Russia’s ambassador in Berlin, raising the confrontation with Moscow to a new level.

“The Russian Ministry of Defense last week published addresses of arms companies based in Germany. This was a reaction to the German government’s announcement that it would supply new drones and long-range weapons to Ukraine or have them produced there in cooperation with German arms manufacturers.

In other words: the German government is responding to Russian warnings that, in the event of further Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory driven by Germany, Moscow might target military installations in Germany—and it is responding with further escalation. The summoning of the Russian ambassador is aimed at further shattering already severely damaged relations and preparing the transition to an open military confrontation.”

IntelliNews (IntelliNews) today comments on a KPMG report (KPMG) to the effect that Central and Eastern Europe is rapidly becoming the focal point of Europe’s defense industrial expansion, driven by rising military spending, supply chain restructuring and the war in Ukraine as Europe shifts “from one off procurement toward continuous production, stockpile replenishment, maintenance, and long-term industrial capacity.” IntelliNews considers this too little, too late and driven for the wrong reasons. If German auto factories are retooling to make weapons it is because that Germany’s audo industry has already lost out to Chinese EV development and consequent high German unemployment. The 2024 Draghi report on Europe’s loss of competitiveness called for investment in defense but was ignored until Trump cut off supplies. IntelliNews considers a Russia attack, widely predicted by European politicians for five years’ time - although the outlet does not expect Putin to actually attack - would logically come sooner when European defense is in such a shoddy position. A glaring omission, it argues, is the complete lack of defenses against Russia swarms of drones. Current NATO plans for the defense of Europe rest on the now outdated assumption that in two weeks American troops would arrive in France and Germany, which are then moved from West to East. All of the infrastructure has been built on this assumption.

“Years of planning and investment are needed to remake the entire system to cope with the new realities.”

Yes, the €90bn EU loan will tide Ukraine over until September next year. But then another €50bn loan has to be found in order to get it to the end of 2027 at a time when Europe is increasingly voting in Euroskeptic-lite governments.

(These developments continue to be of considerable importance. I will be updating during the day).

Iran Crisis

While a US delegation led by Vance is prepared to travel to Pakistan, the trip was reportedly put on hold Tuesday because Iran has not formally confirmed its participation. So, as of April 21, 2026, U.S. Vice President JD Vance is not in Islamabad, but still in Washington. Some reports indicate he may have departed Pakistan following a previous, separate round of talks. President Donald Trump has stated he does not want to extend the current ceasefire which ends tomorrow. Instead he “expects to be bombing” if a “great deal” is not reached quickly. Tehran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei has stated that “no final decision” had been made regarding the talks, citing “contradictory messages” and the ongoing U.S. naval blockade as major obstacles. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said that Iran will not negotiate under the “shadow of threats”.

AP reported earlier today that U.S. forces have boarded another (second) oil tanker, one that was reportedly sanctioned previously for “smuggling” Iranian crude oil in Asia. The Pentagon has put into place a global warning to track down vessels tied to Tehran. The Tifani was captured in the Bay of Bengal — between India and Southeast Asia — and was carrying Iranian oil (even though under the terms of the ceasefire the US has supposedly lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea). US forces also fired on another Iranian-flagged vessel in the Gulf of Oman.

Drop Site News reports (Drop Site) that at least 26 Iranian “shadow fleet” vessels have bypassed the U.S. naval blockade of the strait of Hormuz since April 13, and cites Lloyd’s data of ships moving in and out of Iranian ports and exporting Iranian-origin cargo. U.S. Central Command said on Monday that since the blockade began, the U.S. has directed 27 vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port.

Pakistan, perhaps in response to continuing pressure from China, continues to push both sides to the table in Islamabad warning that the decision to attend before the Wednesday deadline is “critical.” It would be extremely inadvisable for Iran to attend any such talks. First of all, there is the real threat to the physical safety of negotiators given the numerous occasions that the US and Israel have exploited negotiations for decapitation killings and other heinous crimes; there was considerable concern at the close of the previous round of Islamabad talks for the safety of the returning Iranian negotiators. The Iranian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former military officer and certified pilot, requested the security escort (two dozen jets, as well as the force’s Airborne Warning and Control System for aerial surveillance), which goes well beyond normal protocol, souces told Pakistan newspaper, The Dawn.

Participation in the second round of talks would also be extremely inadvisable given the highly erratic, unpredictable and perhaps mentally ill status of the US President, first of all, and then the inability of Vance to say anything of substance that does not have the pre-approval of Trump and Netanyahu, not to mention the deep Zionist sympathies of support US negotiators Kushner and Witkoff, all of which leaves Trump next to no margin of discretion without incurring the fateful wrath of Israeli pressure (Epstein-related blackmail?).

Further, the US not only has violated the terms of the ceasefire with its blockade and illegal piracy, but its genocidal partner Israel has been unable to sustain the supposed ceasefire agreed with Lebanon (see below), further underlining the absolute absence of integrity on the side of Western forces.

On Sonar21, Larry Johnson reports (without citing sources, so far as I recall) that Iran is deploying thousands of new anti-ship mines in the Strait of Hormuz and predicts that Trump will order a new round of attacks in hopes that he will break Iran’s will to resist, in response to which Iran will retaliate and inflict catastrophic damage on the Gulf Arabs who continue to side with the US. Far more significant is the likely arrival of Chinese ships who, as Alexander Mercouris argues on The Duran today, may have concluded - having seen Russia safely escort an oil tanker to Cuba without provoking US intervention - that the US will not choose this moment to start World War Three.

Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s representative to international organizations in Vienna, has called for the immediate lifting all Iran sanctions as part of a potential deal with the United States.

Would a continuation of the Biden administration have been any different? Apparently not. Caitlin Johnstone (Johnstone) picked up on statements made last Sunday by former senior Biden advisor and Zionist Amos Hochstein that the Biden administration had been preparing to bomb Iran if they had won re-election in 2024.

Lebanon

Drop Site News today cites Lebanon’s national news agency to the effect that Israeli forces have carried out demolitions and strikes across southern Lebanon on Tuesday, including an explosion in the town of Tayr Harfa and artillery fire targeting the outskirts of Kounine in Bint Jbeil district. Israeli troops were also reported to have blown up homes and infrastructure in multiple villages, including Beit Lif, Shamaa, al-Bayyada and Naqoura. Lenanon’s Health Ministry says that an Israeli strike on the village of Qaaqiyet al-Jisr, near Nabatieh in southern Lebanon injudred six people Monday evening. A second round of talks between the Lebanese government and Israel is scheduled in Washington for Thursday, but Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem fiercely condemned the talks on Monday, calling them “a free concession” to Israel and the United States and urging Beirut to withdraw, arguing Lebanon cannot negotiate while under fire.

Atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank

Drop Site News further reports that over the past day at least seven Palestinians were killed and 21 were injured in Israeli attacks across Gaza, and three Palestinians, including two children, were killed in West Bank settler attacks.

The total recorded death toll in Gaza since October 7, 2023 has risen to 72,560 killed, with 172,317 injured. Since October 11, the first full day of the so-called ceasefire, Israel has killed at least 784 Palestinians in Gaza and wounded 2,214, while 761 bodies have been recovered from under the rubble, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. Laala Bechetoula (Global Research) frames this even more dramatically:

Israel is killing children. Deliberately. Systematically. With our weapons. With our money. With our diplomatic cover. And we are letting it happen.

That is the sentence. It is not propaganda. It is not antisemitism. It is not a conspiracy theory circulated on fringe websites. It is the documented, verified, cross-referenced conclusion of UNICEF, the World Health Organization, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the International Court of Justice, The Lancet, and — since January 2026 — Israeli military sources themselves, who finally accepted the Gaza Ministry of Health’s death count.

This did not just start in October 2023. Between September 2000 and October 2023, Bechetoula reports, Israeli forces killed more than 2,171 Palestinian children.

In the West Bank, as reported by the West Bank Protection Consortium, led by the Norwegian Refugee Council, More than 70 percent of displaced Palestinian households in the occupied West Bank cited threats of sexualized violence against women and children by Israeli settlers and soldiers as the primary reason for fleeing their communities, and this number is almost certainly an underestimate.

Reuters today (Reuters) reports that the Israeli cabinet approved the construction of 34 new West Bank settlements last week. This brings “the total number approved by the ruling coalition led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu up to 103. The cabinet decision is the largest batch of new settlements approved in decades, breaking the record set by a previous landmark decision in June 2025, which approved 22 new settlements.”

In a welcome if modest pushback he foreign ministers of Spain, Slovenia, and Ireland sent a joint letter Monday to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas demanding a debate on suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement at Tuesday’s foreign affairs council meeting. Drop Site News reports that Amnesty International backed the push, calling on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to support the move. “The European Union can no longer remain on the sidelines,” the ministers wrote in the letter, urging “bold and immediate action” and saying all options should remain on the table.

UK Starmer Mandelson Drama

Owen Jones this morning provides useful commentary (Jones) on the scandal surrounding the appointment of Peter Mandelson - an associate and friend of late paedophile Jeffrey Epstein - which he says had its origin six years ago when a right-wing faction seized control of the Labour Party under false pretences. Starmer’s former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney - a close associate and protégé of Mandelson - is alleged (McSweeney denies it) to have intervened to ensure Mandelson’s appointment as UK ambassador to the US without adequate vetting. Perhaps even more interesting is the role of McSweeney, says Jones, in the groundwork for a right-wing takeover of the party:

“What we know is that Morgan McSweeney spent years - whilst Corbyn was Labour leader - using the ‘Labour Together’ think tank to lay the groundwork for a right-wing takeover of the party.

That effort was funded by £700,000 in secret donations from business figures - conveniently declared only months after Starmer became leader, dismissed by McSweeney as an “admin error” after an Electoral Commission fine.”

Once in control, they remade the party in their image.

Selections were stitched up. Leading factional members were parachuted into constituencies they had no connection to, bypassing local members entirely. And as we now see, the same mentality extended to the state itself - attempting to hand out ambassadorships to factional allies with no relevant experience, but with deeply troubling associations.

And still, most political journalists looked the other way.

Why? Because they approved of the war waged by Starmerism on the left

Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania

The overthrow of the Orban regime in Hungary has been followed predictably by assurances by Ukraine’s Zelenskiy that Ukraine will allow the necessary repairs to the Druzhba pipeline that supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, and indications of the imminenet EU approval of the 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine. There is some skepticism as to whether Orban’s successor, Magyar will go as far as was anticipated in undoing all the changes that have been attributed to Orban. IntelliNews today (IntelliNews) points out that Magyar rejected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s list of 24 reforms Budapest needs to make before the billions of frozen EU funds are released; Magyar said he would only do four of them. For the moment it seems clear that Orban’s departure removes from the EU at least one source of opposition to knee-jerk anti-Russianism that has been fundamental to EU policies for the past decade or more. Now, there is speculation that the Orban factor has found a replacement in Bulgaria’s new leader Rumen Radev. For the Duran, Alex Christoforou (The Duran) argues that:

Rumen Radev emerges as an unusually dominant political figure, securing a rare outright majority after years of instability. A former fighter pilot promising to dismantle what he describes as a “mafia state,” he draws predictable suspicion within European Union circles. The label “pro Russian” appears quickly, though his position often reflects pragmatic concerns, particularly the need to engage Moscow during an energy crisis. Bulgaria’s integration into the euro framework, however, limits strategic autonomy. Figures such as Ursula von der Leyen and Christine Lagarde retain significant financial leverage. The implication is clear: divergence from Brussels can trigger pressure through liquidity constraints, reinforcing discipline through economic means rather than open confrontation.

IntelliNews describes Radev as actually a left-leaning eurosceptic and EU critic who has nevertheless called for renewing ties with Russia, adding:

Radev is better understood as a Russia-sympathetic centrist who ran against a discredited establishment. Magyar too will maintain relations with the Kremlin and only intends to “phase out” Hungary’s dependence on Russian gas. He also threatened Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy today, saying “don’t blackmail me” over the resupply of oil via the Druzhba pipeline.

In Romania, IntelliNews (IntelliNews) reports, a collapse of the pro-European centre engineered by a centre-left party trying to outflank the hard right, with the hard right as the likely beneficiary.

“Romania’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) has voted overwhelmingly to withdraw political support for Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, raising the prospect of a government collapse, Agerpres reported on April 20. While the PSD aims to increase its influence over the executive, the attempts may end in complicated months-long political turmoil, possibly ending in early elections. The decision was backed by 97.7% of around 5,000 regional delegates, effectively calling on Bolojan to resign. PSD leaders blamed the prime minister for what they described as the “economic and social collapse of the last 10 months”.

IntelliNews sees in all these developments the rise of Euroskepticism-light that is a threat to the continuing unity of the EU.

Ukraine

Zelenskiy has been talking about how Ukraine can no longer depend on the flow of support from the US. He can take comfort from the expected arrival shortly of 90 billion euro loan from the EU, of which 60 billion is reportedly expected to go to US arms manufacturers for weapons that will take some time, perhaps a long time, to produce. This is happening in a context in which the US President talks with increasing hostility and skepticism about NATO and some NATO leaders look, instead, to the unlikely formation of a European army. Russian forces are reported by Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov to lie between 7 and 12 miles from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, the two remaining major cities of the Donbass that still lie under Ukrainian control. Russia is striking at Slavyansk with artillery and drones. Lyman, considered a satellite town of Slavyansk, has mainly (70%) fallen to Russia. (Siversk fell to Russia in December). Russia is close, finally, to taking Konstantinivka. As Putin first announced it would two or three years ago, Russia has built up its buffer zone in the north and northeast substantially, and its forces are close to the city of Sumy. In the area of Kupyansk Russia controls all the area east of the Oskil river. In the Dnipro-Petrovsk oblast Russia has established a security line to the east and may eventually move against the city of Pavlohrad and further west.