The Oracle by Polymarket | Substack

THE TOTENBERG EFFECT

How Polymarket traders reacted to NPR fake news

8 hrs ago • Polymarket and Werner K. Zagrebbi

Recent posts

Introducing Polymarket Institutional Research

Issue 1: Anthropic Right Tail Underpriced?

Jul 8 • Polymarket

The art & science of FDA drug forecasting

Jun 24 • Polymarket and Akshay Kumar

Traders see 1-in-6 odds of a NATO-Russia clash this year. But the real risk may lie in events that won’t trigger a YES resolution

Jun 12 • Polymarket and Jonathan Masters

Democratic operative TheMaineWonk on the Trump-like antifragility of Graham Platner PLUS how to watch Maine on election night.

Jun 10 • Polymarket and Will Ward

THE ARGENTINA MODEL

Hedge fund manager Chris DeMuth Jr. on why Latin America is going the way of Argentina PLUS eBay, SpaceX, and Warner Bros M&A update

Jun 5 • Polymarket and Will Ward

THE MATH OF DEFEAT

Hedge fund manager on the inevitability of US defeat in Iran

May 29 • Polymarket and Will Ward

Breaking news

The Oracle by Polymarket

The Oracle by Polymarket

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