In her recent analysis, Patricia sheds some light on why the IRGC could have also wanted a “breather” in the war. The analysis considers the IRGC’s stockpile of missiles equipped with the Chinese BeiDou system, into which they rapidly began integrating their missiles (replacing GPS) after the 12-Day War. Patricia’s calculations suggest that they would have already utilized most of their stockpiles with this guidance system. This would have motivated the IRGC leadership to seek a diplomatic route, effectively, to reload. Israel is also doing the same (airlift into Israel reportedly continues unabated), while there are rumors of 50,000 U.S. troops arriving in the Middle East.
Like I noted yesterday, there’s no way an U.S. president could sign a ceasefire, which would be a de facto capitulation (or surrender). Thus, I don’t think there will be any signing of a ceasefire agreement, like there was none after the 12-Day War. I will reveal my broader thinking tomorrow after we see what happens in Islamabad (if anything).
While we wait, I would like to report what I discovered when I was writing the Weekly Forecasts of GnS Economics dealing with the private credit sector. What I found was a massive surge in the amount of loans into nondepository financial institutions (NDFI) in the U.S. and abroad hidden in “hidden” loan categories.1 They indicate an explosion of systemic risk within the financial system.2
