DebConf attendee numbers

Strangely enough I'm quite busy a few days before I leave for DebConf, but I just wanted to clarify that Phil's recent post on DebConf numbers was, as the saying goes, comparing apples and oranges.

We have many different counts of attendee numbers at different points in the DebConf cycle.  Here are some of the counts we might be interested in:

1. Number of people who are registered before the deadline for requesting sponsored accommodation;
2. Number of people who are registered when we start finalising venue arrangements;
3. Number of people who are registered just before we start the confirmation period;
4. Number of people who have confirmed they plan to come at the end of the confirmation period;
5. Number of people who are registered and confirmed by the end of DebConf;
6. Number of people who actually attend DebConf;
7. Number of people who actually attend DebConf and bother to tell the conference Front Desk they have arrived;
8. Number of people who actually attend DebConf and bother to tell the conference Front Desk they have arrived, and get marked correctly as attending in the registration system;
9. Number of people who actually attend DebConf or Debian Day.

After DebConf is finished, the numbers we would most like to know are 6 and 9, but usually we have to focus on 8 and make a guess at the number of Debian Day attendees.

I haven't traced back where Phil's numbers came from, but it looks like he was comparing something close to 3 (for DebConf10 and DebConf11) with something close to 4 for DebConf12.

For past conferences, it makes more sense to look at 8:



For DebConf12 all we can do at this stage is look at something close to 4, which is currently about 180 people. If you look at the equivalent graph for DC11, you will see that more people continue to register (or to turn up unregistered and get registered afterwards) until the end of DebConf:



Having said all that, I do expect DebConf12 to be smaller than last year. Attendee numbers vary with, among other factors:

• Amount of sponsorship raised (and therefore amount of money available for travel grants and for attendee accommodation);
• Travel costs to venue from regions with concentrations of Debian contributors;
• Travel time to venue from regions with concentrations of Debian contributors;
• Global economic situation.

Of course, we can only choose DebConf venues from places where there is a local team ready to do the necessary work – I would encourage anyone who thinks that they can offer a good venue for a future conference to consider putting forward a bid for DebConf14!