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Mortgage–treasury spread slides toward post-covid lows
Basis compression is easing mortgage rates without help from Treasuries.
Jan 16
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Monetary Commentary
10
3
Household credit tops out before the losses show up
Charge-offs are lagging the leverage cycle, confirming past strain rather than new borrowing.
Jan 14
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Monetary Commentary
10
3
Brent moves first, Venezuela follows
Oil prices react to expected global supply shifts; Venezuelan imports adjust later when sanctions gates open or shut.
Jan 5
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Monetary Commentary
14
2
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Silver’s cycle premium shows up when factory growth turns up
Dec 27, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
20
3
Rent keeps outpacing wage gains in post-2020 era
Dec 22, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
20
3
The demographic speed limit keeps tightening on world GDP
Dec 15, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
19
2
6
T-bills are back above the floor
Oct 28, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
20
3
BoJ hikes on a mega balance sheet, reshaping global funding currents
Dec 19, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
18
1
Financialized housing, shrinking families: America’s quiet trade
Dec 4, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
18
2
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When curve impulses break bank beta
Deposits got pricey and duration turned toxic, breaking the curve’s bank beta.
Jan 3
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Monetary Commentary
12
2
Small-cap stocks lag as real rates stay positive
High real yields act as a hidden tax on small-cap balance sheets, steadily pushing relative performance toward firms that can self-fund and refinance…
Jan 2
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Monetary Commentary
16
3
Semis vs. industrials: capex flows to the constraint
AI spending concentrates upstream where cash-rich balance sheets lock in scarce silicon, leaving industrials exposed to the broader credit cycle.
Dec 31, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
10
2
Job openings have lost their meaning as a tightness signal
When postings become cheap optionality rather than hiring commitments, openings inflate while hires stay grounded, overstating labor market tightness.
Dec 30, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
11
2
Silver’s cycle premium shows up when factory growth turns up
The gold–silver ratio widens and compresses with industrial throughput, turning only when factory balance sheets shift from repair to volume expansion.
Dec 27, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
20
3
Holiday hiring dilutes average wages every December
December wage softness in retail reflects a surge of lower-paid seasonal hires pulling down the average
Dec 25, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
6
2
Rent keeps outpacing wage gains in post-2020 era
The rent-to-wage wedge is back near cycle highs which is why households feel no relief even after the inflation headlines cooled.
Dec 22, 2025
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Monetary Commentary
20
3
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