In a stunning series of successful covert and overt operations conducted by Israel in the last few weeks, Tehran is reeling from the perceived substantial failures of it’s intelligence and security forces. As a reaction to Israel’s own shortcomings to preventing the October 7th attacks, it may now be over-posturing to reestablish deterrence. The nation required a response to the attacks and to restore security. However, the long-term strategy of Israel’s current policies may risk destabilizing the region, but also doing so within its own borders. Israel can take a page from the lessons learned in the post-mortem of America’s War on Terror.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government was low on popularity and plentiful on promises of national security prior to October 7th. His reforms to the judiciary were seen by his numerous opponents as a consolidation power rather than earnest improvements of governance. Exactly the kinds of disaster his political party warned would happen if his opponents were in charge, occurred under his direct watch. The real tragedy are the humans caught in the cogs of history. Prior to the attacks, Israel was in peace talks for a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia who is seen as the leader of the Sunni Muslim world. Such an agreement would have served as a milestone and opened the door for other Arab-Israeli relations talks, something militant organizations like Hamas could not allow.

America found itself dragged into Afghanistan, the “Graveyard of Empires”, in the need to eliminate safe havens for it’s non-state actor enemies. If Israel is not careful, it may find itself walking into a large scale conflict they cannot afford. After a recent rocket attack in Israel-Occupied Golan Heights killed 12 children, Israel promised a harsh response. And it delivered. In just two days, a prominent Battalion Commander of Hezbollah Fuad Shukur, and the head of the Hamas Politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, we killed in strikes planned by Israel. The former, an overt military operation Israel has taken responsibility for, the latter a covert operation involving a coordinated explosion affecting only a single room in a compound within the capital city Tehran when Haniyeh was visiting for the inauguration ceremony for the newly elected Iranian president. Though not taking direct credit, many intelligence analysts believe it bears the hallmarks and sophistication of Israel. Netanyahu attempts to restore deterrence leave their adversaries very little room for response other than continued conflict.

In a recent Foreign Affairs article, Why Israel Escalates by Dalia Dassa Kaye, insiders within Israel’s defense agencies and government feel a sense of dread and the visage of Israeli invincibility against it’s enemies shattered. The support for Israel on the world forum is being eroded by it’s own undermining efforts restore deterrence. It’s challenges are on the legal front via the UN, lack of appetite by it’s military allies for expanded conflict, and growing internal dissent as more Israeli citizens call for negotiations to bring the hostages home. The Israeli response to the attack on it’s Golan Heights region will necessitate Iran to respond as it did to the attacks on it’s facilities within Syria. Iran launched a swarm drone attack that was only thwarted so successfully was because of the combined intervention by the US and military partners. In the series of escalations, it is not exactly how extensive Iran will respond but all of Israel’s allies wish to see an end to the conflict.

The reasons behind Israel’s recent posturing are understandable but boil down to strikes without strategy. Winning tactically today by delivering decisive blows to Israel’s adversaries, but could cost them dearly strategically in the long run. In an effort to restore deterrence, it may be exposing it’s weaknesses. Israel has significant military capabilities to defend itself from the region around it. It does not have the material resources, manpower, or political capital to conduct a regional and extended conflict. The most prudent course for long term policy is for Israel to try to reestablish peace talks in efforts to create more normalization agreements. It’s long term stability depends on making peace with Gaza and addressing conditions in the West Bank so it may continue on the restoring relations. Strength through Peace.