Understanding Iran
Plus, a Pyrrhic victory that led to 35 years of conflict
Before you read my latest article at Responsible Statecraft…
The first time I remember a U.S. president comparing another world leader to Adolf Hitler was in late 1990 or early 1991. Back then, I paid more attention to the follies of the New York Jets than foreign policy, but it was impossible to ignore the coming war. We talked about it in history class, and it was all over CNN, whose coverage transformed the young cable network into a powerhouse. As an impressionable teen, when my president said something important, I believed it: Saddam Hussein was another Hitler. After all, he had gassed his own people.
What I didn’t know at the time was that the U.S. under Reagan and Bush had been rather chummy with Saddam’s wretched regime for the better part of the 1980s and early 90s. The following facts (an incomplete chronology) tell part of the story, and I must credit Steve Coll’s The Achilles Trap as one source of this information:
In the early 1980s, the CIA began sharing satellite intelligence with Iraq’s military as it fought an existential war against revolutionary Iran. Saddam owed his survival to Ronald Reagan.
Even after the Halabja massacre in 1988, the Reagan administration did not disown Saddam.
Five days before the invasion of Kuwait, President George Bush, assured by Arab allies that Iraq would definitely not invade, wrote Saddam a short letter. “We believe that differences are best resolved by peaceful means and not by threats involving military force or conflict… my Administration continues to desire better relations with Iraq.”
Also in July 1990, Congress enacted sanctions to cut off $700 million in U.S. loan guarantees to Iraq, but the Bush administration opposed them.
Was Saddam the second coming of Hitler before he invaded Kuwait? If so, why did the U.S. work with him? The answer was Iran. Iraq was the counterbalance to Iran in the Persian Gulf. Although the Reagan administration also sold weapons to Iran (through Israel!) in what became known as the Iran-Contra scandal.
As I write for Responsible Statecraft, the decision to go to war to expel Iraq’s marauding armies from Kuwait may have seemed like the right thing to do — and it appeared to have been a smashing success. President Bush wanted to repeal the “law of the jungle” and create a better world than the one receding into the past as the Cold War came to a close. Thirty-five years later, the U.S. has yet to extricate itself from military adventurism in the Greater Middle East, because each intervention led to new problems that Washington sought to solve through sanctions, no-fly zones, invasions, etc., etc.
It didn’t work. And the current war in Iran, whether it ends in “victory” or stalemate, will undoubtedly produce another set of unintended consequences guaranteed to entangle future U.S. administrations deeper in the region unless and until they summon the will to say enough is enough. The American public is already there.
Note: This week’s newsletter is coming to you earlier than usual, on Wednesday rather than Friday. The reason is I’m about to slightly shift my focus away from Iran toward Israel’s ongoing wars in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon — three fronts in a regionwide maelstrom.
This Friday’s podcast will focus on Israel’s long campaign to shape Lebanon to its liking. My guest will be historian Ahron Bregman, and we’ll discuss the 1982 regime-change operation in Beirut. Israel installed Bashir Gemayel, a Maronite Christian who shared the goal of pushing the PLO out of Lebanon.
Next week, my podcast guests will be Jean-Pierre Filiu (topic: Gaza) and Dahlia Scheindlin and Yael Berda (West Bank). I will write about these episodes in my April 3 newsletter.
Understanding Iran
Probably no one, no matter how knowledgeable, can predict exactly where the war in Iran is going. War is unpredictable. But it is already obvious that the Trump administration, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Israeli intelligence subscribed to magical thinking at the start. The New York Times reports, “Killing Iran’s leaders at the outset of the conflict, followed by a series of intelligence operations intended to encourage regime change, they thought, could lead to a mass uprising that might bring about a swift end to the war.”
A swift end to the war. And what if it never materialized? Bomb until some positive outcome emerges from the ruins of the global economy? The governments that started the war did not understand their enemy.
This is where historical perspective is critical. Here are several recent History As It Happens podcast episodes that plumb the origins of the Islamic Republic, the reasons for decades of U.S.-Iran hostility, and how the Tehran regime functions.
In yesterday’s episode, historian Roham Alvandi answers: Who was the Ayatollah Khamenei and what is his legacy?
Listen: https://historyasithappens.libsyn.com/khameneis-revolutionPolitical scientist Vali Nasr explains the inner workings of the regime. It is being transformed, but not in the way the U.S. and Israel dreamt.
Listen: https://historyasithappens.libsyn.com/bonus-ep-misunderstanding-iranThe war and international law, with Adil Haque. Pretty much everything that’s happened since February 28 is a breach of international law and the U.S. Constitution.
Listen: https://historyasithappens.libsyn.com/bonus-ep-iran-and-the-laws-of-warHistorian Naghmeh Sohrabi on the diverse ideas that drove the Iranian Revolution in 1979 before Khomeini achieved his dominant position. She also discusses the role of violence in maintaining power over the decades, culminating in January’s massacres of thousands of Iranian protesters.
Listen: https://historyasithappens.libsyn.com/wrath-of-the-ayatollahsHistorian and oil analyst Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group traces the collapse of the Shah’s rule in 1978-79. The Carter administration was blind until it was too late.
Listen: https://historyasithappens.libsyn.com/jimmy-carter-the-shah-and-the-ayatollah
Remember, you can find these episodes wherever you usually listen to History As It Happens, which is available on all major podcast platforms.
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