Lines After Dark

Midweek Market Update - April 8, 2026

The risk-off alarm from late February and early March has served it’s purpose, successfully hitting 2 of 3 decline targets.

And now, just like that— the risk-off criteria have all cleared for three consecutive sessions. Sunday’s note described the market as being on a fenceline, and two consecutive sessions with a risk-off criteria reading of 0/3 metaphorically “jump the fence”, in this case into the bull pen.

Through Wednesday I am certainly not jumping in with both feet to immediately position long, however the short trades terminated on Tuesdays close as was planned in Sunday’s note, and remaining hedges will be removed over the course of the next week and a half, conditional on the S&P 500 keeping above 6625.

Sunday’s note is setting up to be an important one.