Lines After Dark

Midweek Market Update - April 1, 2026

The S&P 500 traded within 0.25% of the second decline target of 6300 in the opening session of the week— close enough by my count to mark a target hit. From there the index has rallied, and as written over the last month, all rallies throughout a corrective move are considered relief rallies, with it being April Fool’s we can call it a fool’s rally.

For now, the rally stalled precisely where resistance has been anticipated, and all three risk-off criteria remain active. For the bullish participants— there is a glimmer of positive development in the risk-on barometers of ARKK and IWM that create consideration for early seeds of bullishness.

For those who have utilized the risk-off alarm to protect capital and considered the clean short trades you have likely already won against the markets year to date performance. The objective now is to sustain that outperformance and maintain a high degree of selectivity for all trades. There is no sense to be chopped up in a volatile consolidation.

Risk Off Criteria: 3 of 3 Active