yarffaJ nalA

WSOP Ladies Event: called it!

jnala — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 10:11:54 GMT

Me, July 2011, Nevada legalizes sex discrimination:

Effective October 1, places of public accomodation can "offer differential pricing, discounted pricing or special offers based on sex to promote or market the place of public accommodation" and it will not be considered an unlawful discriminatory practice. [...]
Next year, the WSOP will presumably declare that the Ladies Event is a $50000-buyin event with special promotional pricing of $1000 for women, and the scourge of one or two dozen concealed penises in a field of over 1000 players will be over.

Caesars Entertainment press release, February 2013, 44th Annual World Series of Poker® Schedule Announced:

The Ladies Only No-Limit Hold’em Championship – On Friday, June 28 at 12 p.m., featuring a $10,000 buy-in for the Ladies world championship (Event #51). Men entering this event will be required to buy-in for $10,000, while ladies will enjoy a special discounted buy-in of $1,000 – a discount of $9,000.

Part of me is surprised that they actually had the nerve to go ahead and do it, but I think more of me is surprised that it took them this long.

I don't live in Nevada anymore, and I won't be playing any WSOP events this year, and I'm pretty happy about both of those facts. Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

morbid numeracy, answers

jnala — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 08:06:17 GMT

(Posted this before, but crossposts from Dreamwidth appear to be broken at the moment...)

Please answer the earlier poll first; I am really curious what people's initial guesses are on this.

Firearm homicide statistics source: http://ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/ezashr/
Motor vehicle fatalities sources: http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx http://www.saferoads.org/federal/2004/TrafficFatalities1899-2003.pdf
US population source: http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table

1981: Population 229M, 14058 firearm homicides (61.4 per 1M), 49301 motor vehicle deaths (215.3 per 1M)
1991: Population 253M, 16378 firearm homicides (64.7 per 1M), 41508 motor vehicle deaths (164.1 per 1M)
2001: Population 285M, 10112 firearm homicides (35.5 per 1M), 42196 motor vehicle deaths (148.1 per 1M)
2010: Population 309M, 9936 firearm homicides (32.1 per 1M), 32885 motor vehicle deaths (106.4 per 1M)

So, our answers are:
- There are currently about 3.3 motor vehicle deaths per firearm homicide
- The firearm homicide rate in 1991 was almost exactly double what it was in 2010
- The motor vehicle death rate was a little over 50% higher in 1991 than it was in 2010

I guessed "about 10:1" for motor vehicle deaths being more common, which was way off. One of my friends guessed motor vehicles by "10:1 or 20:1", and another guessed firearm homicides were more common by a ratio of 3:2 or 5:3. People answering the poll were also way off on this one.

I got the decrease in firearm homicide rate about right, but I guessed that the motor vehicle death rate had dropped more than it had, I guessed that it'd dropped by 1/2 rather than 1/3. The number of vehicle-miles travelled per capita has increased (from about 8600 to about 9600), and that hadn't occurred to me. Also, the lowest-hanging fruit, widespread seatbelt adoption, saw its greatest gains in the 80s; the motor vehicle death rate *has* dropped in half if you go 10 years further back to 1981.

morbid numeracy

jnala — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 00:02:51 GMT

This isn't meant as political advocacy, just the result of some research on my part, and my surprise at how bad my guesses (and others' guesses) were before doing the research. What would your guesses be?

View Poll: #1885788

money laundering: a top priority, unless you're a banker

jnala — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 23:58:26 GMT

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/outrageous-hsbc-settlement-proves-the-drug-war-is-a-joke-20121213

Online poker: Payment processors for a tiny industry "launders money" by miscategorizing credit card transactions to allow Americans to play online poker. Over a dozen people indicted, over a billion dollars in fines and settlements.

HSBC: Third-largest global bank knowingly launders billions of dollars for huge violent Mexican and Columbian drug cartels, and deliberately helps clients in rogue nations evade financial blockades to fund terrorists. No criminal charges, fine of under two billion dollars.

Thank you, Department of "Justice".

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

Maui

jnala — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 22:41:46 GMT

This gorgeous creature is Maui.

Maui is a bronze Egyptian Mau, one of the only spotted breeds of domesticated cat. She's about ten years old, declawed in front, and in perfect health. She is the smartest cat I've ever met, and very affectionate and people-oriented. She wants to be where the people are, and will chirp questioningly as to what they're up to. She loves laps, kneads enthusiastically when she's relaxed and in a good mood (we call her "shiatsu kitty"), and will often curl up by your legs or under the covers at night.

We love Maui very much. However, Maui has to be an only cat. When she sees other cats, she becomes agitated and aggressive. We have four other cats, and so Maui has to stay cooped up in one bedroom, usually alone except at night. (Alone even at night when we're traveling, which is not uncommon.) This is not a good situation for her at all, and it's awkward for the humans too. We want to find a better home for her.

Maui has had pee problems in the past, which makes it hard to place her. We have every reason to believe this is territorial behavior caused by stress from being around other cats. In the year we've had her, as long as she's been kept separate from other cats, we've had no problems with pee.

We will deliver Maui anywhere in Nevada or California, or possibly fly her elsewhere, if we can find an appropriate home for her. We can also help with initial supplies, and advice on introducing her to the home. She really is an awesome cat.

(Please forward this message to anyone who you think might be interested.)

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

death by ideology

jnala — Tue, 16 Oct 2012 07:54:20 GMT

Mitt Romney last week: “We don’t have people that become ill, who die in their apartment because they don’t have insurance.”

What planet is this man from?

If I could make every voter in America read one article, this would be it: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/opinion/krugman-death-by-ideology.html. It's short. Read the featured comments, too.

According to this study, over 40000 American deaths per year can be attributed to lack of health insurance. The exact number can be questioned, but I would be amazed if it weren't in the five figures.

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

hooking kids on sex!

jnala — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 07:45:36 GMT

OK, I am not generally a fan of "let's go laugh at the stupid people" humor, but this is fucking hilarious. I was doubled over laughing. The copy on YouTube got DMCA'd away, but the copy on gloria.tv ("the more catholic the better", no I am not joking) is still there.

Let the tightly-wound man in the purple shirt explain to you Planned Parenthood's sinister plot to get kids hooked on sex and pornography so that they can later sell them birth control, STD tests, and (best of all) abortions! Masturbation is their gateway drug! It's all part of their diabolical scheme to control society! Step 3: Profit!

(If that copy gets taken down, just google for "hooking kids on sex", maybe adding "american life league". Insist on the man with the purple shirt! He is your sign of nutjobbery!)

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

THOSE EYES

jnala — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 09:31:29 GMT

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

knock knock

jnala — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 06:42:04 GMT

It's amazing what you can get with casino comps.

Really, trelana?

(For those unfamiliar with the backstory: the saga begins)

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

who, me?

jnala — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 17:21:29 GMT

Observed in the Concierge Lounge, in the Summit Suites at Harrah's Lake Tahoe:

Someone went to a lot of effort to put that card under the table's glass top. I wonder who. Probably not the butler.

I'm also curious if there's an explanation on the other side, but not enough to remove the glass top and find out. It's about 10 square feet and looks awkward and heavy.

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

god bless 'em

jnala — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 12:49:24 GMT

I don't play next to many little old ladies anymore, so tonight was a change of pace. She was probably about 70, quite friendly and only a little daffy. Asked me where I was from, volunteered that she was visiting from Beaverton, OR. I almost asked if it was to gamble or if she was visiting family, but caught myself, realizing I didn't really want to give her an opening to talk about her grandkids.

She clearly wasn't too familiar with video poker. She had the basics of strategy down, but was fumbling a bit with operating the machine. Getting mixed up about when she was in the middle of a hand vs between hands, having to double-check the number of credits she was playing, stuff like that. But she seemed to be enjoying herself, savoring her small wins and muttering at the machine when it wouldn't give her that fourth deuce and so on.

Then she got dealt Qd Ad Kd 5s Jd. Four to the royal. Naturally this was very exciting and she had to point it out to me. She pushed the buttons to hold the AKQJ of diamonds, and leaned forward and rubbed the spot where she wanted the ten of diamonds to appear, for good luck, and with her other hand pressed draw.

...before I could stop her, that is. Video poker machines have touchscreens. When she rubbed the five of spades, it marked that card as being held, which she didn't notice with her hand still over the screen. She drew no cards and ended with the same worthless AKQJ5 she started with.

I had to struggle really hard to not visibly cringe at that. If I'd had a moment, I would have suggested she call over a slot attendant - sometimes in the case of a clearly mistaken hold they can replay the hand for you.

But she didn't pause for more than a moment. Once she realized what happened, she said "oh, shucks", and then "I guess I'll never know...", and kept on playing. I decided it wouldn't really be doing her a favor to suggest she interrupt her fun, and left her to it.

Anyway, it didn't matter. Twenty minutes later, she got dealt KQJT of spades. This time she managed to successfully draw a card, and of course it was the ace of spades.

Congratulations, ma'am. I cashed out and drifted over to the cafe to get a hot fudge sundae. Mmmm, hot fudge.

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

happy carolstice!

jnala — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 10:10:24 GMT

We celebrate Carolstice every December 26th. Beginning this day, there will be fewer and fewer Christmas carols every day. The dark days of saccharine pretense and treacly nostalgia and semi-enforced religious observance are over; the warm dawn of a full range of genuine human emotion awaits us. The Christmas season has been long, and grows longer every year, but as always we shall emerge into the light! Hallelujah.

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

checking in to rio

jnala — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 01:00:54 GMT

All these comps are turning me into such a prissy little bitch. I walk into my complimentary 35th-floor suite and my first reaction is LOL only a 32" CRT. Of course then I laugh at myself and flop on the bed because really after the last couple of days I wouldn't give a shit if it were a Motel 6, or the semi-abandoned roach-infested ghost hotel I slept in a couple weeks ago. Just as long as it has working heat. Which our new house doesn't. God I hate moving.

I stopped in the gift/sundries shop before coming up to get a $3 20oz soda and a $7 bag of Doritos. Imaginary money, of course... The employees there have nametags which also list where they're from, as with most casino employees. "Eritrea? Don't see that every day." "It's in Africa", they helpfully inform me. They then notice that the white boy is carrying a couple of Cantonese-language newspapers. "Where are you from?" I smile. "California."

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

Ellie contemplates raining feline death from above

jnala — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 06:03:52 GMT

Photo by trelana.
Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

the soon-to-be ghost towns, so long, farewell, goodbye

jnala — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 02:08:48 GMT

dubhain, trelana, and I went to look at a house today. If the owner doesn't freak at our occupation, or our cats, we'll probably end up renting it.

The view from the backyard is interesting. Very Vegas. Numerous homes descending to the left, Black Mountain looming to the right, and a never-to-be-completed condo building lying in tatters straight ahead. Even within the very nice gated community, once you drive past a certain point, you have a road ending in nothingness and lots with half-built walls and nothing more.

Coincidentally, I happened across this passage today.

28 “Suppose one of you wants to build a tower. Won’t you first sit down and estimate the cost to see if you have enough money to complete it? 29 For if you lay the foundation and are not able to finish it, everyone who sees it will ridicule you, 30 saying, ‘This person began to build and wasn’t able to finish.’

Looks like some developers weren't reading their Gospels. I now have this intense urge to head down to the Strip and spraypaint "LUKE 14:28" all over the Fontainebleau.

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

the deification of Reagan

jnala — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 04:17:07 GMT

From Salon: When Reagan was (much) less popular than Carter

It's been widely observed that Reagan, a radical conservative in his day, would be considered far too liberal to be nominated by today's GOP, despite the extent to which current Republicans genuflect before his memory. Raised taxes, grew government, borrowed and spent, amnesty to illegals, pulled out of Lebanon, you know (or should know) it all.

What I hadn't fully appreciated before reading this article is just how recent the revisionism of his record and deification of his memory is. Only 46% of Americans viewed him favorably in 1992? While Carter's favorables were over 60%? Wow.

The long illness during which everyone was reluctant to say anything negative about him, combined with Clinton's success in erasing the huge Reagan/Bush deficits, and a systematic right-wing PR campaign on his behalf, did one hell of a job scrubbing away everything but the warm smile and the anti-government rhetoric in record time.

Crossposted from Dreamwidth. (Post comment | Read comments)

Nevada legalizes sex discrimination

jnala — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 01:12:33 GMT

Effective October 1, places of public accomodation can "offer differential pricing, discounted pricing or special offers based on sex to promote or market the place of public accommodation" and it will not be considered an unlawful discriminatory practice. So if Good Ol' Boys Golf Club wants to charge a $50000 membership fee for all new members, but offer a special discount allowing men to sign up for $100, that's just fine! Not discriminatory at all!

Obviously this will be a great step forward in "clarifying" what many describe as a "loophole" in our current anti-discrimination law.

This was passed a month ago, but I only heard about it now, thanks to the WSOP Ladies Event. The last couple of years, after the departure of former commissioner Jeffrey Pollack and his particular obsession with flaunting state law, they've let men play. The world has failed to end. Much like it has failed to end in California, where the state Attorney General's office explicitly warned cardrooms years ago that men cannot be forbidden from entering poker tournaments on account of their sex. (Apparently a man actually won one of the WSOP Circuit ladies events this year; no world-ending there either.)

Next year, the WSOP will presumably declare that the Ladies Event is a $50000-buyin event with special promotional pricing of $1000 for women, and the scourge of one or two dozen concealed penises in a field of over 1000 players will be over.

The last two years, Rio public relations staff have thrown professionalism out the window, making threats of future retaliation against men who play the event (last year) and insulting their masculinity and attractiveness to women (this year). This year, a man made the final table, and they decided to throw game integrity out the window as well.

The floor called a 30-second clock on the guy every time he thought for more than a few seconds; normally players have at least a minute to think and usually much more before another player can call a one-minute clock on them. Tournament staff also encouraged the crowd to heckle him (including while he was thinking on a decision, which normally gets one evicted), and participated in calling him names themselves. ("Nice going, princess.") They barred a friend from the tournament area for, he claims, doing nothing more than applauding his friend and glaring at a floorperson who was insulting him.

I'm sure this player would have cause for a lawsuit if he cared enough to pursue it, but he probably doesn't.

I could not be happier with my decision to not play the WSOP this year and not further enrich these assholes. (Partly influenced by their behavior last year, which helped convince me of what corrupt punks they are.) While I'm sure they don't care about my piddly few thousand dollars of rake, developing a reputation for considering game integrity and fair play to be optional when they don't like someone is something which will come back to bite them in the ass.

Final Jeopardy scenarios

jnala — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 22:04:39 GMT

Another friend of mine is on Jeopardy! today, which seems like an appropriate occasion to post some other thoughts on J! strategy I've had recently.

Everyone knows that it's important to enter Final Jeopardy with the lead - if you have the lead, and you wager enough, and you get it right, you win. Almost everyone knows that it's very good to be in the lead with at least double the score of second place, what Alex calls a "runaway" and the rest of us call a "lock" - you can wager zero and win no matter what your opponents do.

Most people do not understand the relative importance of these two factors, and that there's a third threshold which is as important as either of them.

The third threshold is having a lead of at least 50% over your opponent, or conversely, trailing with a score at least two-thirds of first place.

Suppose you're leading with $20000, and second place has $12000. You can wager $4001 and guarantee a win with a correct response, and if you miss, you still have more than $12000. You only lose if you get it wrong and second-place gets it right. However, if you're leading with $15000 vs $12000, you have to wager $9001 to guarantee a win with a correct response. Second place can just wager zero, and you lose if you get it wrong, no matter what he does.

(Of course, if you know he's wagering zero, you could wager zero yourself, and guarantee a win. But if he knows you're wagering zero, he'd then wager large enough to win with a correct response. The optimal strategy is mixed, where you make different choices with various probabilities. However, in practice, this doesn't happen. Real-world second-place players routinely make irrationally large wagers, so real-world first-place players almost always wager large enough to cover a max bet and correct response.)

So if your opponent has $12000, and third place is out of the picture, the relevant ranges and winning scenarios are:

$24000+: You win.
$18000-$24000: You win unless you miss and he gets.
$12000-$18000: You win if you get.
$8000-$12000: You win if he misses.
$6000-$8000: You win if you get and he misses.
$0-$6000: You lose.

(Ignoring the endpoints, since they get weird... they're worthy of a post of their own.) Anyway, I knew all of this before I started looking at J! strategy more seriously recently. The implications are what surprised me.

What are the relative likelihoods of these scenarios? Fortunately, J-Archive has historical data. (My numbers do not match theirs because I've manually excluded certain irrelevant games, like college or celebrity tournaments.)

FJ is hard. The leader and second place respond correctly about 56% of the time. (Third place, usually a weaker player, gets at only 50%.) Even exceptional players don't get it much more often - the only one for whom we have a decent sample size is Ken Jennings, who got 68%. Because some FJs are unusually easy or difficult, the likelihood of leader missing and second-place getting is lower than it'd be if they were independent events, only 23%.

So, let's translate the above ranges into winning percentages:

$24000+: You win 100%.
$18000-$24000: You win 77%.
$12000-$18000: You win 56%.
$8000-$12000: You win 44%.
$6000-$8000: You win 23%.
$0-$6000: You win 0%.

Your improvement in winning percentage by extending a lead past the two-thirds threshold is 21%. Your improvement in winning percentage by extending a lead into a lock is 23%. Your improvement in winning percentage by getting a lead in the first place is only 12% - barely more than half the significance of the other two thresholds!

What this implies is that your strategy prior to FJ should not focus on taking a lead into FJ, but on taking a large lead into FJ, while ensuring that you don't fall below the two-thirds threshold. This often means making uncomfortably large Daily Double wagers.

Example: You're leading $17000-$12000, and hit a DD on the last clue before FJ. Almost all players in this situation wager somewhere in the $1000-$5000 range. This is a good bet. You're risking almost nothing, and if you get it right you're past the two-thirds threshold, adding 21% to your winning percentage. But is it the best bet?

No. You should wager $7500 instead, and it's not even close.

It's a substantial risk, because if you miss you give up the lead; but if you answer correctly, you don't just have a large lead, you have a lock. Locks are more important than leads. You're risking 12% to gain 44%.

If you're 50% likely to get the DD correct, then the small wager improves your winning percentage by 10.5%, while the large wager improves it by 16%.

But DDs are easier than FJs. You're probably more like 60% or 70% to respond correctly. If your chance of responding correctly is two-thirds, then the small wager improves your winning percentage by 14%, while the large wager improves it by over 25%. Making the right bet adds 11% to your winning percentage compared to the wrong bet.

This is huge. It's worth about $10000 in real money? It's worth about as much as taking the lead going into FJ? It's worth a half-dozen average non-DD clues? Take your pick.

Obviously most DD decisions aren't on the last clue of the second round, and aren't as easy to analyze as this. But the same principles apply, and usually point in the same direction: FJ is hard, so go big early.

Today's airport "security" hilarity

jnala — Sat, 04 Dec 2010 21:22:30 GMT

I just went through the security checkpoint at McCarran. Three of the four lines were being sent through the strip-search machines. The fourth line was being sent through a standard metal detector. I didn't want to go through the strip-search machine, so I went to the fourth line, and only had to go through the metal detector.

I swear, I am not making this up.

I feel very secure knowing that a self-selected 75% of passengers were scanned using Advanced Imaging Technologies.

Strip-search machines don't work

jnala — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 23:31:28 GMT

Here is a backscatter X-ray image of a human dummy.

The object on the left is a water bottle. The object on the right is an iron rod.

The object in the center is 320g of PETN explosive, approximately four times the amount carried by the "underwear bomber" which all this intrusive new screening is supposed to stop.

"What object in the center?", you ask? This one:

Didn't see it? Neither did I. Backscatter images reveal hard edges. A thin pancake produces, at best, a very subtle discrepancy.

Think a random TSA screener will see it? Ha.

That's right. We're being asked to submit to radiation and automated strip searches for the sake of "security" that doesn't fucking work.

It is doubtful that any of the additional passenger screening added after 9/11 has saved any lives. It is certain that it has cost thousands of lives, as inconvenienced travelers choose to drive instead, when driving is vastly more dangerous than flying.

Now, not only are they pissing all over the Fourth Amendment and irradiating and molesting countless travelers - not only are they going to further harm the airline industry and cost thousands more lives as pissed-off travelers drive instead - they're doing this and accomplishing VIRTUALLY NOTHING to make it more difficult for terrorists to get explosives on a plane.

(Not that they have any reason to blow up a plane; blowing up a crowded security checkpoint is a lot easier, isn't a suicide mission, and offers nearly as much lethal damage and terror created.)

Heckuva job, Pistole. Heckuva job.

Prop 19

jnala — Sun, 26 Sep 2010 19:35:53 GMT

I just donated $500 to Yes on Prop 19, which would legalize, regulate, and tax cannabis in California. Ending this country's insanely destructive policy of marijuana prohibition is one of the most important social issues of our time, and this is going to be a very close vote where every ad dollar matters.

(No, I don't use marijuana, and no, I don't currently live in California.)

more t-shirt adventures

jnala — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 23:32:36 GMT

While at M Resort this afternoon, I ran into my host, Wai-Mei. She's very nice, but there's occasionally a language gap between us, one that she tries to bridge with pure enthusiasm.

She asked if I needed anything, asked about a friend of mine, and then remarked:

"Your shirt so cute! Little M&M guys, I love it! You get at M&M's store?"

"No, actually, I got it ~~at a fetish fair in Massachusetts~~ somewhere else..."

I wasn't about to try and explain that one.

such self-awareness is rare

jnala — Sat, 07 Aug 2010 09:40:29 GMT

Playing video poker in Yet Another Shitty Locals Joint, for about a hundred times the stakes of anyone around me, waiting for the staff to pay off a jackpot.

Lady looks up from the slot machine behind us. "Ooooh, what did you hit? Wow, that must be nice! How much is that? Oooh!"

I answer these questions honestly, but I really hate contributing to the delusions of gamblers that everyone around them is winning, and maybe next it'll be them. I'm winning. They're not. They never will. So I add - also honestly - "just don't ask how much I put in."

"Oh, we never talk about that. Only talk about the winning, never about the losing. That's how gambling works! It's lying to everyone around you, and to yourself."

...wow. That's sort of disturbingly profound to hear from someone playing penny slots.

"I... I think I might have to quote you on that. Do you want attribution, or should I just say I heard it from a wise woman I met in a casino?"

"Just say you heard it from some chick."

She wanders off to find another penny slot, and I return to my work.

CNBC FAIL ctd

jnala — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 00:08:55 GMT

The reason I'm laughing has nothing to do with the unemployment rate. Look closer.

CNBC FAIL

jnala — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 11:32:29 GMT