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August 10, 2014 / JayMan

Gone Fishin’

cfiles47986

I’ll be away for the next week. Have fun everyone! I’ve temporarily enabled comment moderation for all comments. Hope everyone is enjoying their summer.

I’ll be completely incommunicado, so I hope everyone out there in the world behaves. Try not to destroy too much while I’m away. 🙂

July 28, 2014 / JayMan

Idiocracy Can Wait?

Post updated, 10/21/14. See below!

It’s general trope in the HBD community: people are getting dumber. The low IQ are outbreeding the high IQ, leading to a slow decline in genetic intellectual potential in the population. Indeed, my own analyses seem to have shown that there was a fair fertility advantage among the lower IQ over the higher IQ (seen most recently in my post Who’s Having the Babies?):

Cohort

The key limitation is that most of these analyses left off in 1950s cohorts – the people who had their children in the 70s and 80s. This was my parents’ generation! We don’t know what people born later did. Does the apparent dysgenic pattern continue right up to the present day? I decided it was time to take a look:

1960s Big

These are average number of children had by White Americans aged 42 and older born during the 1960s, from the GSS (drawn from all GSS years, with those two parameters established), by WORDSUM score, a proxy for IQ. 95% confidence intervals shown, which should give an idea of sample sizes. I’ve collapsed the 0-3 score to make the distribution symmetrical on both sides in terms of number of subjects (there appears to be a significant rightward skew in the WORDSUM data).

Now this is interesting; unlike previous cohorts, fertility among the 1960s cohorts doesn’t look dysgenic for IQ. If anything, it looks slightly eugenic.

Let’s see further what’s going on, by looking at the sexes separately:

1960s 2 Big 2

Here is fertility by WORDSUM for White males and females separately. Previously, we’ve seen that fertility is eugenic for men and dysgenic for women. For the 1960s cohorts, this appears to be case. But the eugenic fertility for men is strong enough to outweigh the dysgenic fertility for women, so the net effect is slightly eugenic (things were probably a bit more eugenic when you consider childhood mortality is more concentrated on the low end).

To confirm that net White fertility was eugenic, I ran the correlation between WORDSUM and average number of children (for all individuals 42 and older at time of survey):

Cohorts Total fertility-IQ correlation Males only Females only
1888-1909 -0.15 -0.18 -0.13
1910-1919 -0.07 -0.02 -0.11
1920-1929 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08
1930-1939 -0.11 -0.06 -0.16
1940-1949 -0.11 -0.05 -0.18
1950-1959 -0.07 -0.02 -0.12
1960-1969 +0.03 +0.10 -0.06
1970-1979 -0.07

This is a fascinating finding. A big point of alarm in the HBD world (even noted by myself previously) is that people are getting slowly dumber with each generation. Aside from the fact that this process is, at best, very slow (see Greg Cochran here and here), as far as we’re concerned, it doesn’t even appear to continuing! At least for one period, it reversed somewhat. This seriously calls into question the practice of projecting fertility trends into the future on the assumptions current patterns will hold.

So why did dysgenic fertility halt for the 1960s cohort? That’s currently not clear. These were people born in the tail end of the Baby Boom, who would have been having children in the ’80s and ’90s. Economic conditions (which, as we’ve previous seen, can strongly affect fertility – see Another Tale of Two Maps and A Tale of Three Maps) – while clearly being not as good as during the Baby Boom – were not particularly bad, nor particularly good. This was during the “Rust Belt” epoch – “deindustrialization”– where many manufacturing jobs across the Midlands and Greater New England left the region for other parts of the country and overseas. The erosion of earning ability for low-ability males may have stymied their child-bearing prospects compared to earlier decades. I will return to this point shortly.

What about the 1970s cohorts?  Well, this is a bit harder to call at the moment, because that generation is still having children (I should know). Here is a look at fertility for 1970s White Americans:

1970s- age 38+These are only individuals age 38 and over. I didn’t bother with error bars, because sample sizes are all really small here. I collapsed score 0-4 and 9-10 to make the distribution symmetrical. Sample sizes were too small for me to look at the sexes separately. But, at first look, it would seem fertility appears to have returned to a dysgenic pattern.

Though before we go too far with that conclusion, let me show you something else:

Age kid
This is average age of having the first child for the marked cohorts, for White Americans, from all GSS years. To ensure every respondent had a chance to contribute their likely lifetime datum, I included only individuals age 48 and older at the time of the survey. As we see, there is a fairly consistent pattern for smarter individuals to have their first child systematically later than dumber individuals. The pattern reverses a bit at the lowest IQ levels, it appears (note: this doesn’t appear to an artifact of small sample size).

Here are males and females separately:

For the 1970s (and younger) cohorts, the smartest individuals are likely not done having children, due to the high average age of first child, which is in the 30s for these folks. Indeed, see here [Edit, 10/21/14: I’ve inserted a chart that includes all sampled individuals from the 1970s cohorts, to increase the sample size. The samples are still pretty small (age 38 and older) –forewarned: samples are tiny, sometimes in the single digits]:

age kid 1970sFix

For the record, I did look at other races. Sample sizes are much smaller here, so charts would have much less value. For Blacks, fertility is generally much more strongly dysgenic throughout, increasing with time. The correlation between fertility and WORDSUM is remains in -0.19 to -0.25 range. However, the correlations are smaller in magnitude for the oldest cohorts, though it has to be expected that this is partly due to attrition through death at these ages. While samples are small, preliminarily for the 1970s cohort, the correlation is -0.30. The male-female difference was present, but small (see also Dysgenic Fertility Among Blacks? Apparently, Yes).

Samples sizes for Hispanics were too small to do anything useful.

Edit, 10/21/14: [On the advice of Greg Cochran, I also looked at whether the above pattern was just an artifact of unreliable WORDSUM scores by looking at fertility by education. Here at the results:

White Fertility Education-All

This is average number of children had by non-Hispanic Whites, age 44 or older, 95% confidence intervals shown. Here again we what looks like a neutral to perhaps very slightly negative relationship between education and fertility for the 1960s cohorts.

Here are males and females separately:

White Fertility Education-1960s-M-F

We see the classic pattern: fertility appears to be eugenic for men and dysgenic for women. Indeed, a look at the correlation between education and number of children shows very near neutral total fertility for the 1960s cohorts:

Cohorts Total fertility-Education correlation Males only Females only
1930-1939 -0.15 -0.09 -0.20
1940-1949 -0.20 -0.15 -0.24
1950-1959 -0.15 -0.07 -0.23
1960-1969 -0.02 +0.14 -0.19
1970-1979 -0.11

(Indeed, the correlation for the 1960s people becomes positive, r = 0.02, if I set the cutoff at age 48. This is driven by an increase in the correlation for men, from 0.14 to 0.20. This indicates that older fathers may be driving the relationship.)

Here are the 1970s cohorts (included only those age 40 or over) – sample sizes are very small, so I forwent the confidence intervals (0-1 = high school and below; 2 = some college; 3 = bachelors; 4 = graduate):

White Fertility Education-70s

This suggests a return to a dysgenic pattern, as seen from the correlations. However, the as seen before, the small samples and the possible age effect makes this hard to call.

Either by the IQ (as gauged by the WORDSUM) or by reported education, the GSS data shows that dysgenic breeding seems to have significantly stalled or even reversed for those born in the 1960. For what it’s worth, Audacious Epigone has noted a decreasing correlation between the WORDSUM score and reported education in the GSS:

the correlation between wordsum scores and educational attainment by decade of birth among all native-born Americans who have participated in the GSS:

Born prior to 1950: .536
Born in the 1950s: .507
Born in the 1960s: .469
Born in the 1970s: .419
Born in the 1980s: .373

One serious issue would be this: the current neutral to slightly eugenic fertility reported in the GSS stems from a serious sex difference: eugenic for men and dysgenic for women. This leads one to suspect that low-IQ men may just be systematically underreporting the number of children they have, perhaps unwittingly so. To check for this, I looked at the total average number of children for men and women separately. I did find a slight difference (1.88 for men vs 1.96 for women), however it’s not statistically significant.  ***End Edit***]

Looking at total fertility rates over time and age of first child underscores a pattern I found earlier (as noted in my post Some guys get all the babes – not exactly). Specifically, the Baby Boom was a brief period (at least during the past 100 years or so) where the total fraction of individuals who contributed to the gene pool increased:

In the era before the Baby Boom (the people who gave birth during the Great Depression), ~20% of individuals, male and female, had no children. That fraction fell to less than 10% during the Boom. It has since returned to its pre-Baby Boom size of ~20-25% (higher for males). During the Baby Boom, all sorts of individuals (about 10% more of the population) were having children who previously wouldn’t have. Since we see that in the pre-1900 cohorts, the fraction of the childless was about the same as it was for the people born at the start of the 20th century (~20%), this doesn’t appear to be solely a product of the generation trough during the Great Depression.

This may explain something noticed by blogger “Agnostic“: homeless individuals, who are very often mentally ill (especially schizophrenic) appear to be disproportionately Baby Boomers. If a certain segment of the population who, in earlier epochs, normally didn’t reproduce as much, suddenly increased their fertility due to a time of easy living, then you would expect an uptick of those sort of individuals in the following generation. If that 10% of people who bred more during the Boom were in the top 10% of those with genetic load, say, then the following era would witness a significant increase, at especially at the extreme ends of the distribution – which schizophrenia, for example, may represent.

These generational effects in fertility, with boom and bust cycles, represent the effects of the population cycle as described by Peter Turchin (see here for a good description of the process). Population growth sows the seeds of its undoing, by decreasing the share of resources (be it food, land, or these days, well-paying jobs) available to the up-and-coming generation. In short, the more people, the smaller slice of the pie each individual gets. The fewer people, the larger piece of the resource pie each family can acquire, typically boosting fertility. Immigration exacerbates these trends (see Turchin on it here). The whole process represents one of the most reliable “environmental” effects I have examined.

Coupled with the good times during the Baby Boom, we see that age of first child fell a bit (though it was fairly low before), as you’d expect. Afterwards, it rose significantly, especially for smarter women. The smartest individuals (WORDSUM 10 – roughly IQ 120+) now typically have their first child after their 30th birthday.

These and other factors makes many individuals (you know who you are) want to return us to the Baby Boom-like era, where labor was scare, and anyone who wanted a well-paying (though often gungy) job could have one. Restricting immigration, as Turchin discusses, is most likely to trend things in that direction. But it’s starting to look more and more questionable that the Baby Boom was an unadulterated good. Sure, the living was easy for those during the Boom, but its products haven’t necessarily been the best.

Fertility rose among everybody, even the smartest were breeding well over replacement then. However, the dumbest were breeding much more, more than they otherwise would, apparently. Perhaps excessive good times aren’t really all that great in the long run.

But, the following period appears to have given us an epoch of eugenic breeding, if ever slightly. Regardless, the important thing this demonstrates is that, at least in the U.S. anyway, we can forestall the coming of the supposedly inevitable idiocracy. We had a long way to go to get there anyway, but even that required a sustained dysgenic trend, and it’s unclear if that can be taken as a given. Razib Khan was right; population projections 50 years into the future are fantasy. Demographic trends have a nasty habit of changing quite a bit over time, enough to mess with the predictions of the most enlightened prophet.

July 23, 2014 / JayMan

How Much Does Behavior Matter to Health? A Quickie

Can be quite substantial. Jump off the Empire State Building and see for yourself. But, beyond that, the question remains how much of the variation in health outcomes and longevity can be explained by behavioral variation? Well, we don’t quite know. But we do have evidence which indicates that – at least in the developed world – that fraction is quite small.

Here’s I’ll post a series of tweets I made on the subject. Much of the matter is discussed in my post IQ and Death (see also my post “Squid Ink”).

On the matter of the attenuation of the association of IQ/simple reaction time with health/longevity, I’ll quote a few passages on that from relevant papers:

From Ian J. Deary & Geoff Der (2005) Reaction Time Explains IQ’s Association With Death:

After AH4 scores and each of the reaction time measures were adjusted for sex, smoking status, social class, and years of education, all effects remained significant, and the hazard ratios were only slightly attenuated (Table 1). Thus, the relation between IQ and mortality in this sample was not substantially mediated by social class, education, or smoking. Nor was the relation between reaction times and mortality substantially mediated by these variables.

From Batty & Deary et al (2008) IQ in late adolescence/early adulthood, risk factors in middle age and later all-cause mortality in men: the Vietnam Experience Study:

we adjusted for a range of physiological, behavioural, psychological and social risk factors that can be considered as mediating variables in the IQ–mortality relation. The influence of controlling for these factors can be broadly divided into three strata. In the first, despite being associated with both IQ and mortality, adjusting individually for marital status, alcohol consumption, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, blood glucose, body mass index and psychiatric and somatic illness at medical examination had very little, if any, impact on the age-adjusted IQ–death relation (<10% attenuation in risk)

From Hagger-Johnson, Deary, Batty, et al (2014) Reaction Time and Mortality from the Major Causes of Death: The NHANES-III Study:

In fully adjusted models which also adjusted for educational attainment, occupational grade, poverty/income ratio, health behaviors and CVD risk factors, the association was attenuated but remained statistically significant for all-cause mortality (HR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.02,1.29; 37% attenuation), and CVD mortality (HR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.15,1.29; 36% attenuation).

The 2014 study found some attenuation when “health behaviors,” among other things, were factored in. Nonetheless, the association remained. A key problem, however, is that “health behaviors” were gauged via self-report. This has been demonstrated to be highly (though by no means completely) inaccurate. The effect of the measurement error in assessing behaviors in the study is unknown; it could bias the attenuation either upwards or downwards. Another similar study by Deary et al (2008) found that the association between simple reaction time and deaths from cardiovascular disease (and stroke in particular) unaffected by adjusting for covariants (they did however find that the association between reaction time and IQ and deaths from coronary artery disease in particular become non-significant when “health behaviors” were factored in). However, these health behaviors were also assessed by self-report. Yet another study by Shipley, Der, & Deary et al (2006) looked at a British sample (N ~7,400) found the association with simple reaction time and all cause mortality. The effect was also mediated by variables. These results call for a meta-analysis.

I also threw out this idea today:

The idea is that some ailments do appear to be heritable (e.g., heart disease), however, may have pathogenic involvement. A (heritable) weaker immune response or otherwise compromised defensive capacity might then at least partly explain observed heritability of these diseases.

 

 

 

July 1, 2014 / JayMan

Summer Funding Drive!

So the time has come for your gracious blogging host to request your assistance in helping my family meet our daily necessities.

http://metrocebu.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/minimum-wage.jpg

When my computer broke down, prompting my previous funding drive, you guys and girls literally came to the rescue, and allowed me to fix it right up. A deep debt of gratitude to all that came to help, and to all that have responded to my call in my preceding post. Thank you!

Now again I ask for your help in contributing to the JayMan family and supporting my tireless blogging efforts, as we saw again highlighted in my previous post. I have a few good things in store for you guys that I will unveil over the summer ;). As I said, I appreciate anything you can give.

There are many ways for you to donate. At right (and below image is clickable too), you will find the “Donate” button that will take you to PayPal.

donate_paypal

Also at the bottom of the page, I have a Flattr button for those of you who prefer to give that way.

Flattr-Big

Bitcoin is still out of commission at the moment, but I may be able to get that back up soon.

As well, Happy Canada Day to my Canadian friends!

Canada Flag Let me also pre-emptively wish my American readers a happy Fourth of July, as well! US Shining glory

(Flag photos by me.) I hope you all enjoy a great holiday!http://www.bartolottafireworks.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/fireworks016_slide.jpg

June 29, 2014 / JayMan

The Derb on the JayMan

In his latest VDARE column, John Derbyshire has written a glowing discussion of yours truly:

John Derbyshire On JayMan—A Righteous Jamaican-American | VDARE.COM

Bloggers come and go. They say all they have to say; or they take a more demanding day job; or start a new hobby; or fall in love; or, I suppose (gulp), are gathered unto their fathers. As VDARE.com always says in its fundraisers, in the long run it’s very hard to write unless you’re paid for it.

New ones come up, though; so from time to time I’ll give you an update.

Of bloggers unmentioned in that November 2012 column, the most interesting one is JayMan. I don’t think I knew his blog at the time. At any rate, I feel sure that if I had known it, I would have included it.

Well… more on that shortly.

JayMan writes about human nature, with particular attention to human differences. As such he has particular appeal to Us of the Cold Eye. That is to say, he’s a stone empiricist who scoffs at happy talk and wishful thinking about human nature, and goes to the research studies.

That is my thing. A couple of my tweets on the matter should sum it up:

Derbyshire continues:

We are now at the point in our understanding where it is beyond dispute that all the interesting traits of human behavior, intelligence, and personality are heritable to some degree.

Biologists estimate heritability by studying different degrees of relatedness: identical twins, siblings, cousins, adoptees, unrelated individuals. Rigorous studies of this kind have been going on for decades. We have a vast mountain of data on human variability. They all agree on the essentials.

Here, for example, is a short piece on the heritability of adult height, which in well-nourished populations is about 80 percent.[ How much of human height is genetic and how much is due to nutrition? , Scientific American, December 11, 2006]

JayMan seems to know all the studies, and does not suffer gladly people who think that waving their arms and crying “epigenetics!” or “Pioneer Fund!” makes a contribution to any discussion of human nature. His question: What does the data say?

Here he is, for example, in the comment thread to one of hbd*chick’s posts (JayMan is an indefatigable commenter). The point at issue is whether one’s happiness as an adult depends to any degree on the style of parenting you were subjected to in childhood.

JayMan cites, with links, two different studies from two different countries showing that it doesn’t.

The transmission of misery or bliss in a family is entirely due to shared genes, just like most everything else.

The fact that parenting style makes no measurable contribution to the finished adult personality is perhaps the most counterintuitive result in the human sciences. There is nothing more certain, yet there is nothing harder to get across to people—even well-educated people—who are unacquainted with the literature.

The case for behavioral genetics is as solid as a rock. Yet certain people like to pretend as if this is a “speculative” affair, or deny that we have such evidence entirely. A key reason for that is as Misdreavus once put it:

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/statuses/465867698388221952

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/statuses/465868256679428096

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/statuses/465869423098597376

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/statuses/465869824795496448

Well, there are certain people I can’t fully convince of a lot of things. Smart people have a hard time with heredity, which is why there is big opposition to HBD. But I have a particularly hard time with the non-effect of parenting.

Derbyshire again:

Conservatives are even more clueless about the human sciences than liberals. It is for example a perennial theme in conservative social commentary that fatherlessness is the cause of much social dysfunction and many poor life outcomes. If only poor people could be persuaded to get married and stay married!

Sounds nice, and gets your timid conservative commentator off the “racist” hook, since ceteris paribus fatherlessness is much more common among blacks than nonblacks.

But … “Happy talk!” scoffs JayMan.

Even if there was more marriage among those in the lower class, the next generation, having inherited all the same traits, would be no different. The poor outcomes of children who were raised in fatherless homes stem not from the much maligned single motherhood—in and of itself—but rather from the traits these children inherited from their parents, who were the type of individuals likely to have their children end up being raised by single mothers. [Liberalism, HBD, Population, and Solutions for the Future, June 1, 2012]

So the arrow of causation is not from fatherlessness to poor life outcomes: It is from certain features of the parental genomes inclining to single motherhood and pump’n’dump fatherhood, and thence, by genetic transmission, to similarly feckless offspring.

This latter picture makes much more sense given what we know about the heritability of behavioral and personality characteristics. Which is a lot: JayMan has put together an excellent reference post, spelling it all out, with numerous links.

Resistance to belief that parenting has little lasting effect (beyond the primary goal of ensuring your children’s survival and safety) is so fierce – and so irrational – that I’d say it has a religious nature to it, like political beliefs. That too demands explanation. And don’t worry, I have something on that in the works. 😉

Indeed, knowledge of heritability (and by extension, the general non-effect of parenting) is on firm ground, as firm as evolution itself. To deny it is tantamount to creationism at this point. So for that reason, I say this:

In fact, I’ll go a step further, and say to these people – you know who you are – it’s like this:

The jury is in; and your team did lose. Contra the blank slatists, developmental psychologists, and all those people who claim that human differences result entirely or primarily from our experiences, you’re wrong. “Nature” is powerful and pervasive; nurture is weak; what effect the “environment” does have doesn’t work like you think.

http://allthejuices.com/juice/squid-ink#!prettyPhotoIndeed, I’d say that the true reality of the matter – beyond what people discuss as being potentially acceptable and whatnot with the current (largely nonsensical) discussion revolving around Nicholas Wade’s A Troublesome Inheritance – goes far deeper than this. On this point, I will note that Derbyshire referenced me before, in a radio interview about Wade’s book (see here, Recent, Copious, and Regional), at time point 15:00.

Derbyshire notes there that “if dimensions of the individual human personality are heritable [and they are], then society is just a vector sum of a lot of individual personalities.

And hence, not to add insult to injury upon the various strands of blank slatists and other “environmentalists”, but the fact of the matter, as established by the evidence, is even more far removed from what that might hope, and cling to. As accounted in my earlier post “Squid Ink”:

the advice is that if we want HBD to gain widespread acceptance, we can’t be too “hard” with our claims, regardless of how true they actually are. How would these people then receive the true realities of the situation then? Like:

  • Every single human behavioral trait is impacted by genes, usually considerably so.
  • How you raise your kids has virtually no impact on how they turn out. That is, nurture appears to matter little in the end.
  • For that matter, contrary to what we’ve been told, it doesn’t look like peers matter too much, either.
  • We have been so far unable to find much of anything in the environment that leaves a lasting impact on intelligence or behavioral traits.
  • Indeed, this is largely true of health outcomes. “Lifestyle” (say diet and exercise) doesn’t appear to be primarily responsible for differences in illness or lifespan.
  • One class of agents in the environment that the evidence does seem to be pointing to that can impact health and behavior are pathogens, and many, if not most, have yet to be discovered. These infections can cause chronic disease, like cancer and perhaps heart disease, and can even alter behavior, most poignantly in the case male homosexuality.
  • While we know the grand-scale environment can make a difference, as seen with rapid secular changes, this seems to primarily occur because of alterations in the incentive structure or through hitherto unavailable possibilities (e.g., cars, internet, oral birth control). Changes here quite likely aren’t easy to execute in a way that achieves controlled outcomes.
  • Given the high heritabilities of behavioral traits and the lack of clear environmental mediators, differences in “culture” (especially within a given time period) are largely due to genetic differences between people. That is, differences between all human groups (races, ethnicities, social classes, or whatever) are all to some degree due to genetics, and perhaps mostly or almost entirely so. [Emphasis not in original.]
  • Your birth family/clan heavily determines your eventual social status. Social status is in fact as heritable as height, and decays very slowly generation after generation in all different social systems across different countries. Social mobility, by in large, doesn’t exist.
  • This scales up to larger groups: the average intelligence and distribution of behavioral traits of a nation or a race/ethnicity within a nation are overwhelmingly the primary determinants of its outcome and social structure, and not its resource wealth or historical circumstances (generally).
  • Indeed, these imply that all of human history is largely the result of the churning of these behavioral and intellectual differences, enabled by technology (which itself is a function of the people).

Would a speaker that said all these things get a lot of play? Would a book that laid bare the case for these rather than took the more muted tack that Wade’s did be well received? What do you think?

I will say one thing: with all these considered, it’s hard to escape the seeming importance of eugenics, if crafting a better society is what you’re after. Indeed, if that’s your goal, eugenics – in one form or another – does appear to be your only avenue.

I know others might not share the idea that such frankness is best, but, as I said at that post:

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Derbyshire continues to my, frankly, unusual background:

As his affection for Bill Maher shows, JayMan is refreshingly eclectic in his opinions—the opposite of a straight-ticket liberal or conservative. He is an atheist, but a nationalist; a social libertarian who favors the “gay germ” theory of homosexuality.

He describes himself in fact as “very liberal … both socially and economically,” and fleshes that out by posting his scores on a standard multi-factor test of political alignment.

A black, or part-black, HBD maven? I don’t see why not. There are forty million self-identifying blacks in the U.S.A., plenty of room for every conceivable personality type.

My son will have his own rather interesting lineage to trace; for he is a part West African, part British (presumably English, and possibly Irish), part Chinese, and part Indian (subcontinent), part Yankee, part Quaker, part German, part Latvian tanned-skin blue-eyed male born in Maine. Oh the fun you’ll have. Do these interesting combinations contribute to our unique insights? Well, more on that in the future too.

Derbyshire also talks about some of my impactful posts:

Some of JayMan’s pieces are masterpieces of blogging, if there can be such a thing. Look at his “Maps of the American Nationspost, for example: two thousand words, twenty maps, two video clips, and full engagement with his comment thread.

Indeed, here, I’d like to call attention to some of my posts that, if you didn’t already read, you best do so forthwith. These include:

My two definitive treatments on what we know from behavioral genetics:

The Son Becomes The Father – Here I discuss the recent findings of Gregory Clark (as told in his book The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility), finding a high heritability of social status across time and across space. I square this with what is known from behavioral genetics from the 20th century, noting that evidence for a high genetic effect on all behaviors and all major life outcomes, like the aforementioned life satisfaction, income, criminality, marital stability, etc. I also note that the transmission must be genetic, as evidence shows no parental effect on any of these things.

More Behavioral Genetic Facts – The sequel to the previous post, I continue to tie up additional dangling points and affirm the high heritability and lack of “shared environment” impact on traits such as IQ, criminality, emotional/mental problems. I talk about the extended twin design and how it can clear up some dangling questions, like who do we choose our mates? Do spouses influence each other? I mention the key findings of behavioral genetics, namely:

…and that if anything deviates from that rule, it can be taken to mean something is up.

The preceding post to “Maps of the American Nations”:

Flags of the American Nations – Here I discuss each of Colin Woodard’s American Nations, talking about the characteristics of each as well as a bit about each nation’s origins. The enduring features that make up Greater Appalachia, The Left Coast, the Deep South, etc. that live on in today’s America (and Canada and Mexico) can be traced to these ethnic differences in each region’s settling and subsequent immigration.

The sequel post to “Maps of the American Nations”,

More Maps of the American Nations – Bigger and badder than the original, with more maps solidifying the distinction between the different American nations, with genetic evidence of these differences to boot. Also some discussion of the history of each, and the founding of certain areas. I also include personality data showing that the American nations don’t just exist on paper or in the voting booth. I use these to talk about the importance of self-sorting, founder effects, and Cochran’s & Harpending’s “boiling off” model to explain some of the differences we see. I also touch on immigration and the canard that immigrants “assimilate,” showing that that is pretty much a myth. A must see if you have not.

Why HBD – Mostly quoting Misdreavus, but together with some additional commentary by me, the definitive introduction to human biodiversity, even for people with zero familiarity with the topic. On my About Me page, I direct new readers to start here.

No, You Don’t Have Free Will, and This is Why – I make a detailed case against the existence of free will, which is a nonsensical concept in any rational analysis. I denounce even the latest and best attempts to restore some watered-down version of it. I note that since all actions have causes, human behavior is no less the result of physical processes than any other event in the universe – physical processes which include genes, environmental impacts, and random chance. Behavior is always the result of these forces, and arguments otherwise are merely obsfuctionary quasi-to-fully religious attempts to confuse the matter. I note the irony in the fact that inability of some to let go of the idea of free will is itself explained by its nonexistence (i.e., we can’t escape the physical reality laid out by the structure of our brains, regardless of exactly how our brains got that way).

Where HBD Chick’s Hypothesis Works – Here I take a critical look at the work of the venerable HBD Chick, looking at how the attributes of the world’s populations fit into her theory. Many fit well (especially across Europe, the Middle East, and the Maghreb), but there are some interesting outliers that might provide some key insight.

Predictions on the Worldwide Distribution of Personality – There is more to HBD than IQ. And as we see all human behavioral traits are heritable. There are significant differences between different human groups, and this is my post on how some of the basic personality differences (as measured by the six-factor HEXACO model) might vary across the world, and, perhaps just as importantly, why they came to be so. What selective pressures led to these differences? I discuss here.

donate_paypalFinally, as Derbyshire noted, “As VDARE.com always says in its fundraisers, in the long run it’s very hard to write unless you’re paid for it.” And this is where Mrs. JayMan has urged me to include a message requesting your generous support. I must say, putting this blog together is not easy – sourcing out the research for my posts, for one, is far from a trivial task. It’s rendered additionally more challenging with a little one who insists on demanding much of my time, a demand which I more than happily obliged. I think the quality of my work speaks for itself, and I hope you find it incredibly useful. So if you would like keep it going, please donate. Currently, the two best ways are PayPal, see button at right. All major credit and debit cards are accepted. Also there is Flattr (see button at bottom) for those who prefer.

A satellite image of my ancestral home, Jamaica, courtesy HBD Chick.

Satellite_Image_Photo_Island_Jamaica_3

June 25, 2014 / JayMan

Just F—in’ Sayin’

What was his excuse? (From NBC)

Where’s your psychoanalysis now?

Previously: Beware Armchair Psychoanalysis

June 21, 2014 / JayMan

Reader Poll Results

Here are the results of my reader poll. All told, it looks like I had about 450 respondents.

Sex M-FUnsurprisingly, it seems most of my readers are male.Education

Most of you (at least of the respondents, anyway) are smart, with over 80% claiming to be college educated, and 1 in 5 having a terminal degree. Age

Race

Now this is somewhat surprising to me. It seems the vast majority of my readers are White, and many are at least partly from “core” Europe, as HBD Chick considers it. Each voter could select multiple options, so that’s worth bearing in mind.

Social EconomicThere seems to be pronounced Rightward lean, more so economically than socially.American NationNow this was perhaps the most surprising result. It seems most of my North American readers are from the North. I haven’t crunched the populations numbers (I will soon), but by eye it seems the Deep South is rather underrepresented (I guess my posts on the Cavaliers did that in). The Far West appears overrepresented, unsurprisingly. I also seem to have a lot of voters from the Left Coast. I got slightly over 300 votes here, so the fraction of voters on this question is roughly in line with my blog traffic from North America.

Edit, 2/12/15. [With the help of figures provided by Colin Woodard on the populations of the respective American Nations, I’m able to calculate the representation of the voters to each nation. I’ve supplemented his figures with my own breakdown of populations of the Canadian sections of these nations (methodology to come at some point in the future). So, based on a total U.S. + Canada population of 354.6 million, each nation contains the following percentage of population:

Region

Percent of

total population

Represented
(Odds Ratio)
Yankeedom 16% 1.37
New Netherland 5.1% ~1
The Midlands 13.5% ~1
New France 3% 1
Greater Appalachia 16% 0.87
The Tidewater 3% 1.0
The Deep South 11.6% 0.69
The Far West 9.8% ~1
The Left Coast 5.5% 2.54
El Norte (U.S. section only) 9% 0.33
First Nation 0.4% “2.5”
Newfoundland 0.1% “10”
(South Florida) 1.4% ~1

As we can see, most nations are roughly proportionally represented. Yankeedom is considerably overrepresented, while Greater Appalachia is somewhat underrepresented. The Deep South and especially El Norte are appreciably underrepresented, but it may be closer to parity when one considers only the White populations of those nations. But grossly overrepresented, by nearly a factor of 3, is the Left Coast. What’s up with that? ***End Edit***]

FrequencyA little over half my readers (by the vote) are at least semi-regular.How long readIt seems most of my respondents have been here for a while, but I’ve been getting a decent smattering of new people.

Now, I didn’t get my intended goal of all readers to my blog over the past week. I’ve averaged about 500 unique visitors per day over that period, yet only 450 votes (I don’t know if “unique visitors” get distinguished in weekly totals, so I don’t know how many unique visitors I had over the week). So these survey respondents are only a small fraction of total readers, and likely the slightly more conscientious/less busy ones. But this also likely represents more reliable readers, as reported above. So, with these caveats considered, it seems my readers are largely middle-aged college educated White conservative men from the U.S. North and West Coast.

As for more complex analysis, unfortunately I can’t do it with the way this poll was done. Maybe another time. In any case, here we are. Thank you all for participating!

June 19, 2014 / JayMan

Neocons, Libertarians, and Economists – Misdreavus on These Mixed Nuts

I’ll let the tweets speak for themselves:

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479585505663676416

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479585822673346561

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479586596908326912

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479587142058786817

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479587493445005312

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479587673800056832

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479588117985243136

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479588364773900289

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479588734313066496

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479589105748021248

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479589698826805248

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479592085536776192

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479592387228889088

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479592691173298176

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479594026975240195

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479594593927704576

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479596518983204865

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479596929743994880

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479597450169036800

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479597732445696000

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479600713958322176

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479599498897793025

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479601479691411456

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479601094897586176

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479602036992782336

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479602455466872832

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479602791002808320

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479603527312887809

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479603838513455104

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479604223114358784

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479605210839388160

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479605348001517570

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479606197423587329

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479606539238400000

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479607026608111617

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479608268973559809

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479608496401313792

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479609284309700611

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479609423166316545

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479610031055204354

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479612457116119041

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479612963850956800

https://twitter.com/SuperMisdreavus/status/479613750618492928

 

June 13, 2014 / JayMan

Who Are You?

http://www.iconarchive.com/show/oxygen-icons-by-oxygen-icons.org/Actions-office-chart-bar-stacked-icon.htmlI want to get an idea of who my readers are. I have a fair idea of where I get my readers, thanks to the WordPress stats, but I’d to know some things that they don’t tell me. I’d like all readers, including lurkers and occasional readers, to please answer the ALL the following polls. This should be completely anonymous, but feel free to add whatever info you want in the comments.

I want to get an idea of your racial/ethnic background. Multiple choices are permitted on this question. Use the map to the right as a guide for inside Hajnal line area:

Inbreed-IBD1

I want to get an idea of my readers’ political views. A simple one-dimensional scale isn’t the best representation of political views, so I will use two, social views (e.g., sex, drugs, rock ‘n roll, religion, personal liberties, etc.) and economic views (e.g, free market, regulation, taxation/redistribution, etc.). Left-wing = liberal; right-wing = conservative.

If you’re from North America (i.e., U.S., Canada, and northern Mexico), I’d like to know what region you’re from. Otherwise, please skip. Use this map as a guide (note, Los Angeles County, CA = El Norte; Sacramento County, CA = The Far West; Fulton County, GA [Atlanta] = The Deep South; most of Suffolk County, NY, esp. the east = Yankeedom) Edit: I’ve added Newfoundland:

ColinWoodard_AmericanNations_map

 

Results will be shown after a week (i.e., 6/20/14). Again I want all readers, even the occasionally stumblers here, to please answer all the applicable questions. Thank you. I look forward to knowing who I’m reaching!

June 11, 2014 / JayMan

Guns & Violence, Again

With the recent spate of mass shootings, (at least four high-profile incidents occurring in the U.S. and Canada in the last two weeks), the issues of guns and violence inevitably come up. Naturally, the politically correct wisdom, which is founded on the blank slate (or at least, a bare slate), wants to blame these events on “environmental,” “cultural,” and “societal” factors. We saw much of this bullshit in action with the most high-profile of these shootings, Elliot Rodger’s rampage. I have commented on this (see Beware Armchair Psychoanalysis). In his case, crackpot theories weren’t limited to coming from the bare slate P.C. establishment, but came from within the “genetically-informed”* community itself. Few of these explanations likely have any truth to them, and my earlier post should have made the foolishness of cooking up these environmental theories obvious.

This is not to say that there aren’t environmental factors that play a role in these crimes, but they are hard to identify. Peter Turchin’s work may be the closest to fleshing some of these out.

However, most of the naive discussion on the matter ignores one incredibly important factor in rates of violence and the prevalence of guns: DNA.

Previously, in my post Guns & Homicide, Map Form, I showed that the relationship between the prevalence of guns and homicide, globally, was pretty weak:

World_map_of_civilian_gun_ownership_-_2nd_color_scheme.svgMap_of_world_by_intentional_homicide_rateHomicide rate per capita on bottom. I had hoped that at least settled the situation. But it did not. Now, let us just look at gun deaths (from here, additional information here):

global-gun-deaths-map
While it’s not totally clear if this map distinguishes gun homicides from gun suicides, it nonetheless shows that the association between the presence of guns and violence is pretty damned weak. This is true if even we limit ourselves to the high average IQ nations (i.e., the “developed” world).

Indeed, an interesting pattern emerges if we look within nations (at all homicides, not just firearm-related), as well (from here):

[Edit, 4/11/15: Added a map of the world, which has homicide rates across the entire globe at a higher resolution than the map at the start of the post

Violence Map

[Edit, 9/26/14: Added a map of the world, which has homicide rates across the entire globe at a higher resolution than the map at the start of the post:

As well as these data in graph form:]

Homicide global graph

Also, see this close-up of Europe:

BydoE2BIgAA43cP.jpg large***End edit***]

There’s plenty of killing in Eastern Europe (even in Finland, apparently, in the Sami areas), mostly the former Soviet states. But even within Russia, rates of violence are higher in the far east. Note the pattern in North America. I will return to that shortly.

On the basic level, before you can postulate a causal relationship, you should at least have a correlation. The “guns cause violence” crowd doesn’t even have that. That didn’t stop one study from somehow finding one, though.

In Gun Ownership and Firearm-related Deaths (2013), the authors claimed a fairly strong (r = 0.8) correlation between the availability of guns in a nation and firearm related deaths it has. A look at their data illustrates this – and the problems with their methodology:

gr1

A look at the specific flags featured should make the problem clear: all the countries examined were in Western Europe and the Anglosphere, with Turkey, South Africa, Israel, and Japan thrown in. As we see from the above maps, including Eastern Europe would have thrown off their relationship just a bit.

Additionally, they lumped gun suicides in with gun homicides. It almost goes without saying that there will be a connection between the availability of guns and the rate of gun suicides. Guns make suicide attempts more likely to be successful, for starters.

Swiss-guns-and-bikes-85530937385-390x330Though I suppose it could be conceivable that one could argue that the presence of guns has some effect within different Northwestern European peoples. Does this argument make sense? Well, if you’ve been following along here, you might guess where I am going to go with that.

In my series on the American nations, particularly my earlier post, More Maps of the American Nations, I noted the great regional variation in guns and crime. Let us look at some of these again, closely:

StateGunsAnd here’s a map by with more granular data, gun dealers per capita per county:

Gun Shops per capita by county USNow let’s compare that with rates of gun homicides across the country (from the CDC):

All Race Age-Adjusted firearm homicides rates county 2004-2010-CWhile there is some missing data here, it is reasonably filled in when one looks at state-level gun homicide rates:

State level Gun homicideIt is clear that there is a huge disconnect between where guns are more common in America and where there is actually the most gun violence.

Now let’s compare these maps to Colin Woodard‘s American Nations map:

upinarms-map

Gun ownership appears concentrated in Yankeedom, the northern parts of the Far West, and in Greater Appalachia – with a somewhat smaller concentration in the Deep South. The last three of those “nations” clustering together is hardly unusual, because they are often clustered in many aspects, as I’ve previously discussed. But Yankeedom, which is often diametrically opposed to the Deep South, also seems to have plenty of guns. However, here in Yankeedom they are primarily used for hunting. The presence of guns and the existence of gun violence seems to coincide across Greater Appalachia and parts of the Deep South.

The places with high levels of gun violence in America relates to another map:

White Liberal Counties

Gun violence in America is primarily concentrated in areas with large numbers of Blacks and Hispanics. Indeed, the continually ignored fact in these debates about American gun violence is that the reason for the outsized rates of violence of the United States, compared with the other Northwestern European and NW Euro derived countries, is the large Black and Hispanic populations in this country.

The disconnect between the availability of guns and violence also extends to our northern neighbor (from the RCMP):

Canada Guns-F

MurderRate2007(2007 murder rate, U.S. and Canada, from here). In Canada, there is no strong association between gun availability and murder – indeed, there appears to be a slight negative association, if anything (this appears to be also true in the U.S. to an extent). Indeed, just next door to me in New Brunswick, there is a fairly high rate of gun ownership, but little violence (the Moncton shooter notwithstanding), as is the case here in Maine as well. The high rate of violence in Nunavut can be traced to its predominantly Inuit population.

But taken together, rates of gun violence across Canada and the U.S. cannot be explained solely by certain racial minorities. Indeed, gun violence appears higher in some White areas as well, primarily Greater Appalachia.

This brings me to another topic thrown about in this whole discussion. That is the issue of “gun culture.” Even excepting certain non-European populations in the U.S., the country does have a considerably high rate of gun ownership. And indeed, guns are an integral feature of “American” culture. (While Canada has a fairly high rate of gun ownership internationally, it is comparable to rates in much of the rest of the NW Euro & derived world.) But, as Woodard would tell you, and as you’d know from following this blog, there is no one “American” culture, and there never was. Support for permissive gun laws and a heavily gun-centric focus are hallmarks of some of the American nations, particularly the Deep South, Greater Appalachia, and the Far West:

http://www.ammoland.com/2014/06/action-10-gets-open-carry-announcement-right/#axzz34NXoWkQW http://mahoganyrevue.com/texas-basic-open-carry-gun-law/

As discussed previously (see my posts A Tentative Ranking of the Clannishness of the “Founding Fathers” and Flags of the American Nations), the ancestors of the people that live in these areas came from certain, more aggressive peripheral areas of the British Isles. In the case of the settlers of the Tidewater and the Deep South, the Cavaliers, their ancestors hailed from southwest England. The founders of Greater Appalachia were the descendents the aggressive Border Reivers of the rugged English-Scottish border area.

tumblr_m9rsb69ARh1qbohcko1_1280

King Charles I leading his Cavaliers in battle (source)

19894d840

Border Reiver cowboys (source)

The martial traditions of these groups live on in the nations of American South. Individuals from these nations, especially those from Greater Appalachia, also went on to found the Far West, as process which itself involved a strong degree of sorting for even tougher, more free-spirited people, as described in my earlier post.

This highlights an important fallacy on the matter of guns and the discussion of “culture” in general in most mainstream circles. People fail to consider where culture comes from. “Culture” is not some intangible, otherworldly agent. Culture is produced by people. More specifically, the traits of a society are the collective behavior of individuals which comprise it – the vector sum of individual temperaments, as John Derbyshire put it, referencing me (see about time 15:00).

republicanJesusThis is why commenters look on in puzzlement over the disconnect between the Dixie peoples’ embrace of Christianity and the actual tenets as taught by Christian tradition. These commenters are looking at it the wrong way. Christian teachings aren’t what motivates Southerners’ behavior and is not what shapes their views; they selectively embrace the parts of the religious traditions that “come naturally” to their way of thinking. In other words, religion is an effect, not a cause of behavior (see also The Atheist Narrative). This true of any cultural feature, of which religious behavior and belief are just examples.

This also, by the way, illustrates the futility of looking at one or another specific aspect of a nation’s – indeed even a local region’s – society and assuming that that aspect is the determining variable (in this case, gun availability). This violates one of hbd* chick’s cardinal commandments: “different peoples is different.” Even comparing White Americans in different parts of the country is essentially comparing apples to oranges (or, at least, apples to pears). Even if we found a strong relationship between gun violence and gun availability, the question would then become: why does gun availability vary from society to society (when it’s clearly not technological or economic factors in the way)?

Edit, 4/11/15: [Indeed, see this paper on the heritability of gun ownership in a national sample across the U.S.:

Genetic and Nonshared Environmental Factors Predict Handgun Ownership in Early Adulthood

There are strong genetic factors involved, and, more importantly, zero shared environment. This finding in a national sample rules out local cultural effects as being involved.

***End Edit***]

Looking at the inherited natures of different human populations makes the poor relationship between guns and violence less mysterious. The Swiss can have their guns without much incident. My own people, Jamaicans, not so much. As I said on Twitter:

We do indeed have a lot of work to do to identify what environmental factors (to whatever extent those are relevant) contribute to individual outbursts of gun violence, and indeed, all violence. We certainly aren’t going to get there very quickly if we keep scrambling around recycling the same tired old inadequate explanations every time there’s some attention-grabbing incident.

See also:

JayMan’s Race, Inheritance, and IQ F.A.Q. (F.R.B.)

My previous posts on the American nations:

A Tentative Ranking of the Clannishness of the “Founding Fathers”
Flags of the American Nations
Maps of the American Nations
More Maps of the American Nations

Also:

Predictions on the Worldwide Distribution of Personality

 

*I struggle with a name for this collection of people. None of the popular labels, such as “HBD,” “Dark Enlightenment,” “Alt-Right,” etc fit because none of those labels fits every member – nor should it.