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Transcript

The Mysteries of Analysis

How do we do it in the IC?

I’m so grateful to have been able to once again join the Kansas Federation of Republican Women (KFRW) to explore intelligence analysis, how it works in the Intelligence Community, and how those who haven’t worked in the IC can use those tools to critically examine information, avoid confirmation bias, and form views on facts rather than emotions!

None of us want intelligence politicized by either side. Politicization of intelligence is a dangerous thing, and it can LITERALLY start wars. I’ve written about Curveball, the single source whose reporting caused us to start the Iraq war, and I’ve written about critical thinking and critical sources, given how much disinformation is out there!

In this talk I explored how intelligence analysts ensure that their assessments are clear, concise, free of bias, and transparent.

Analysis is not mysterious, but clean analysis requires effort and an understanding that analyzing information is not digesting everything you’re fed as fact. If analysis was fact, that’s what it would be called. Analysis is based on existing information, it must be independent of political considerations, it must be timely, and it must inform the reader of the confidence you have in your assessment, based on historical context, existing sources, or analytic gaps!

So please sit down and watch. I also answer some questions at the end, so hopefully you’re entertained at the very least!

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