Illya Gerasymchuk profile photo
Illya Gerasymchuk
Financial & Software Engineer

Threads / Articles

Long-form writing on macro, market structure, commodities, Bitcoin, crypto markets, machine learning, and AI systems.

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Don't Expect $60 Oil In 2026
Started: 2026-03-11 Updated: 2026-03-11 1 thoughts
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Crude Oil Prices Continue To Increase
Started: 2026-03-02 Updated: 2026-03-08 3 thoughts
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Crue Oil: United States Acts, Russia Benefits (Once Again)
Started: 2026-03-08 Updated: 2026-03-08 1 thoughts
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Using DuckDB To Train A Neural Network On 500GB Of Price Data
Started: 2026-03-05 Updated: 2026-03-05 1 thoughts
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Random Forest Cat: An ML Trading Factory
Started: 2026-03-04 Updated: 2026-03-04 1 thoughts
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Why High Oil Prices Are Bad For USD (HINT: China & Credit)
Started: 2026-03-02 Updated: 2026-03-02 1 thoughts
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Using Neural Networks To Find Imbalances In Limit Order Books
Started: 2026-02-27 Updated: 2026-02-27 1 thoughts
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Out of Sample Permutation Feature Importance For Random Forest’s Feature Optimization
Started: 2026-02-20 Updated: 2026-02-24 4 thoughts
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Vibe-Coding Vulnerabilities With Claude Code
Started: 2026-02-18 Updated: 2026-02-18 1 thoughts
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Proxy Model From Polymarket's 15 Minute Bitcoin Price
Started: 2026-02-18 Updated: 2026-02-18 1 thoughts
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Primary Dealers Failures To Settle Implications For Risk Assets
Started: 2026-02-18 Updated: 2026-02-18 1 thoughts
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The random forest that guides my model factory needs refactoring
Started: 2026-02-16 Updated: 2026-02-16 1 thoughts
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China Banned Gold & Silver As Money In 1983
Started: 2026-02-16 Updated: 2026-02-16 1 thoughts
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Gold Outperformed Bitcoin In The Last 8 Years
Started: 2026-02-15 Updated: 2026-02-15 1 thoughts
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How USA Profited 70% On Gold In 1 Year
Started: 2026-02-14 Updated: 2026-02-14 1 thoughts
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Central Bank of Russia Denies Return to USD Payments
Started: 2026-02-13 Updated: 2026-02-13 1 thoughts
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Overfitting In Machine Learning Models Visualized
Started: 2026-02-13 Updated: 2026-02-13 1 thoughts
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Fact-Check: Russia Moving Back To USD?
Started: 2026-02-12 Updated: 2026-02-12 1 thoughts
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My trading ML factory yielded ≈22% return on gold on a daily timeframe, which is almost a double of gold's return in the same time period (≈12%)
Started: 2026-02-11 Updated: 2026-02-11 2 thoughts
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Scarcity Doesn't Make Bitcoin Better Than Gold
Started: 2026-02-09 Updated: 2026-02-09 1 thoughts
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Don't Be Fooled By Backtest Performance
Started: 2026-02-07 Updated: 2026-02-07 1 thoughts
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No AGI With LLMs In Their Current Form.
Started: 2026-02-05 Updated: 2026-02-05 1 thoughts
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AI will follow a much more logarithmic growth than the hype may lead you to believe
Started: 2026-02-03 Updated: 2026-02-03 1 thoughts
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Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust is the first US bank to fail in 2026
Started: 2026-01-31 Updated: 2026-01-31 1 thoughts
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Palladium Is A Great Investment In 2026
Started: 2026-01-29 Updated: 2026-01-29 1 thoughts