{"id":42698,"date":"2024-12-09T14:14:08","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T22:14:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idthefuture.com\/?p=42698"},"modified":"2024-12-09T14:14:11","modified_gmt":"2024-12-09T22:14:11","slug":"1991","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/idthefuture.com\/1991\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Make a Bayesian Inference to the Best Explanation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When we gain new information about beliefs we hold, it’s good practice to update our viewpoints accordingly to avoid incoherence in our thinking. On today’s ID The Future<\/strong>, host Jonathan McLatchie invites professor and author Dr. Tim McGrew to the show to discuss how Bayesian reasoning can help us maintain coherence across our set of beliefs. The pair also apply Bayesian logic to the debate over Darwinian evolution to show that a confidence in design arguments can be mathematically rigorous and logically sound. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bayesian logic provides a mathematical way to update prior probabilities with new information to produce a more realistic likelihood ratio. And when it comes to evaluating different hypotheses, small pieces of evidence can add up. “Even evidence that simply raises a hypothesis into something that is on the table for live consideration is evidence we must attend to,” says Dr. McGrew. A single piece of evidence may be insufficient by itself to fully convince, but added to other pieces can move a proposition from highly unlikely to more likely. Such an approach can inform rational discussion of important issues, moving us closer to the truth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

McLatchie and McGrew conclude their conversation with a remembrance of their mutual friend, author and thinker Tom Gilson, who recently passed away. For the last several years, Gilson sound engineered the ID The Future podcast. His many qualities and a few of Gilson’s final writing projects are briefly discussed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dig Deeper<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Learn more about Bayesian reasoning:<\/p>\n\n\n\n