LiveJournal: The Movie

Your Mental Health Still Matters

2020-06-03T00:55:50Z

Every day, we have a new wave of bad news that hit us in the face from cable television, news websites, and social media. In 2020, those waves feel like tsunamis. Between the bushfires in Australia, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, skyrocketing unemployment, and the ongoing civil unrest across the United States, it can feel like the world is about to come to an end. It can feel like there is nothing you can do, that you are powerless against the forces of the world. That is why it is okay to step away from the outside world for a while.

But, how could I? How dare I suggest stepping away when so many important issues are at stake. Because another important issue is your mental health and your mental stability.

For every issue I listed above, there are going to be people who are severely impact and people who are minimally impacted. The impact that the bushfires in Australia had on me was microscopic. I was sure to check in with my friends down under to see how they were faring while countless people lost their homes. They could not walk away from the impact.

In March, I was let go from my job. Tens of millions of Americans are unemployed in the largest spike in unemployment claims in the nation’s history. That is my burden to bear. It is unrealistic for me to expect all my friends and family to job hunt for me, but I can appreciate it when they message me with, “Hey, this job may be up your alley.”

And now, we are into week number two of civil unrest that has dominated the airwaves and social media across the United States. To say these protests and riots have racial undertone would be like saying that sugar is kind of sweet or that a monsoon makes things kind of wet.

The civil unrest has everybody on edge. We are being bombarded every night with images and videos of violent altercations, businesses being burnt to the ground and looted, and at least a half-dozen additional deaths because of the ongoing unrest. Many of you have even commented how you can hear the protests just down the road from your home, hearing fireworks just before bedtime, at least you hope they are fireworks. Maybe it is time to close Twitter, close Facebook, and just focus on the life around you.

Your mental health is still important. The highlights on cable news, regardless of what they are, do not change that. It does not mean that protests have stopped, and it does not mean that these issues are not important. But without your mental health, your quality of life suffers and spirals downhill quickly!

And I get it: Blacks cannot walk away from being black. You will get no argument from me. But consider that Hongkongers cannot stop being Hongkongers, Australians who lost their home cannot rebuild it in a single day, or people who have lost loved ones who the Coronavirus cannot bring them back. Yet, we emotionally cannot put ourselves in the shoes of the most impacted people in the world for 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. It is great to have empathy and compassion for your fellow humans, but to constantly worry or express anger at every update, every photo, every video, is unhealthy and damaging to ourselves long term.

If it gets too much for you, it is ok to take a break from the world around you. We need escapism, despite the Coronavirus taking away many avenues we had previously. We need to watch an old movie, to go for a jog, to call mom or dad, or just lay around and play video games. Then, when your energy and mood are back up, then you can fight the battle with more vigor and effectiveness than ever before.

I have said and shared my piece on the unrest that is present in this nation over the past week. I recognize there is kindness and love on all corners, but that see how quickly we can give in to hate. I am going to take this time to focus on other aspects that have been plaguing my life for the past several months, but I am still here, on the side of racial equality, law enforcement improvement, and not forgetting the essential workers who are risking their health every day.

God bless.

Hey White People, Try This!

2020-05-30T15:40:17Z

With the murder of George Floyd and the resulting unrest in Minneapolis dominating the news this past week, it has created a tense atmosphere across social media, even more than before. And as always, the loudest voices are the most polarizing ones with some proclaiming that All Cops Are Bastards and some proclaiming that looters should be shot on site. But there is a quiet middle ground that is still taking this all in, who do not know how to respond, or even if they should respond.

These are people who feel so removed from Minneapolis that they only see and hear what is going on through social media and the news. It is not a pretty picture.

I can say with confidence that most of these people are horrified and angry at the murder of George Floyd and want justice for him. I can also say with confidence that most of these people believe the ongoing unrest and riots in the Twin Cities is a bridge too far. And finally, I can say with confidence that most of these people are whites whose experience with racial injustice is minimum, at most.

In my life, I have lived in Celina, Ohio, I have lived in Columbus, Ohio, and I've lived just outside of Chicago, Illinois. I have been blessed to have interacted with people from all walks of life, to have personal conversations with them, and to learn why they believe what they believe.

This doesn't mean unchallenged agreement with their opinions or outlooks, but it does mean taking the time to understand what formed those beliefs.

Growing up in Celina, my exposure to Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians was nearly nonexistent. My dad has a humorous short story about a time we shared an elevator with a black gentleman when I was 4.

But growing up in a small town in rural Ohio, People of Color are almost fictional. They are people who live in big cities or in southern states, but not your small town. So the most exposure you get is on the news, which isn't very flattering right now, to say the least.

Getting to travel the country, I had the opportunity to see so much more than west central Ohio. Big cities, small cities, Northeast, Southeast, East Coast, West Coast. You get to meet and converse with more and more People of Color. And even those short conversations help bridge any mental gap in them being fictional to them being real.

When I attended The™️ Ohio State University, I shared classes and work spaces with significantly more People of Color. Graduating from college at the age of 30, I was also a fish out of water among a population of young 20-somethings. We were able to share interesting stories about our upbringings, our challenges, and our journeys. For some, the journey was easier, for others, it was not.

After graduation, I moved to Bensenville, a suburb of Chicago. Here, the population is predominantly Hispanic. At my first job after college, I had more Black and Hispanic coworkers than you can count in all of Celina. I recall conversations with our Black Senior Accountant about the show "Black-ish" and how relatable that show was to her. At my next job, my closest coworker was a devout Muslim, whom I had fun conversations about how awful the Bears offense was. And at my most recent job, if I brought in baked goods for my Hispanic coworkers, they would counter with tamales the following week. And even now, as I am unemployed and actively searching, one of my best friends, an Asian-American, welcomed me into his home so I did not have to be alone as Illinois was in lockdown.

But even now, seeing what is happening in Minneapolis; it is hard to watch. While many are quick to condemn, many more look at what is going on and wonder what can I do to make it so that less of this shit happens in the future. I guess that is what I'm going for in this post: What can white people do.

Each and every friend and coworker of mine who isn't white has dealt with different levels of racism in their life, and not always from white people and not from all white people. And they are hurtful memories. Maybe they do not want to talk about it, maybe they do. But do not jump start into race when interacting with them. Conversations about sports, the construction on the highway coming into town, and their new car are a lot more interesting and fun anyway.

When you are judged by your skin color for much of your life, it becomes a sensitive topic. It's human nature to find solidarity with people who share your most vilified trait. So when race or religion does come up, take the time to listen, even asking questions. Do not jump to counterarguments because I promise you, they've heard it all before.

And finally, get to know them as a person. You will be amazed at how quickly a stereotype will be destroyed and how much you actually have in common.

It comes down to the little things. We can all make big grand gestures about how Black Lives Matter, but it does not do a damn bit of good with that gesture is coming from behind a computer screen from three states away. Be that ear, be that friend, and as cliché as it is, it won't take long to learn that differences are only skin deep.

An Open Letter To LAFFBall

2015-10-23T00:26:48Z

To Quasi Skunk,

For the first decade of LAFFBall, it was a booming success with many hours put in by the organizers promoting and umpiring the monthly event. Despite a move from Waukegan to Lombard that alienated many from Wisconsin, numbers and participation continued to grow. However, in the past couple of years, attendance has been in a sharp decline. Some of this has been due to some regular players moving away or becoming busy in other aspects of their lives, but we have also seen a marked decrease in the casual player and a lack of new participants. As active players who've been attending for years, many of us worry about the future of LAFFBall if number continues to dip.

In past years, attendance often would reach 30 participants on the nicer Saturdays, sometimes flirting with 50. While attendance for the first three games in 2015 was decent, it still lagged behind past years. In August and September, both very nice weather dates, we barely had enough people to field two teams, 15 in August, 18 in September. We then dipped to 10 in October, despite it being 20 degrees warmer than last year's October game. As people who've been active with LAFFBall for years, we want to offer suggestions to improve turnout so that this unique event doesn't become a thing of the past.

First, we recommend adding either a co-chair or second in command for the event, someone local to Chicago that can cover for weeks where your mascot duties take priority or the threat of weather makes committing to travel a risky propostion. The additional person could help run softball in your absence, check on the fields when weather is questionable, and be an local ambassdor for the event.

Second, we recommend expanding the social media presence of the event. Create a LAFFBall profile on Facebook or FA, and increase the usage of the LAFFBall Twitter account.. With minimal current voice through Twitter and the basically defunct Live Journal, knowledge of the event is primarily based on word of mouth, which is additionally difficult without Chicagoland representation.

Third, we need to look for additional ideas to make the LAFFBall weekend an all day, or event multi-day event. It is much easier to attract outside or casual attendees if they are getting a weekend full of entertainment instead of only a softball game they might be lukewarm about participating in. When scheduled on the same weekend as Downers Grove Bowling, it is a natural alignment; however the bowling group and LAFFBall does not entirely coincide. When LAFFBall doesn't line up with Bowling, there is little else beyond the game to encourage attendance. Options we could consider include a informal group event like Laser Tag or a movie on Friday night. Then ideally we would also have a picnic/BBQ at the park following each game. This would also include having solid plans in case of a rainout, whether it's go-karts, arcades, bowling, or a movie, offering alternative plans alternative plans will keep people from writing off the event due to the threat of weather.

Fourth, if possible, bring back the anniversary game in July at an alternate location to Madison Meadows. For a couple of years, we went to Wisconsin for the July game (though it was organized by MFF and FCN). It had an excellent turnout every year and resulted in some additional participation for future events in Lombard.

We feel LAFFBall still has the potential to be a great event that gets 30+ people on a monthly basis like it used to. Leading this event requires hard work, open communication, and dedication. It's often a thankless job and people are more likely to criticize than pat you on the back. We appreciate the effort you've undertaken in keeping up the event after Stevie stepped aside. However, if we are going to keep LAFFBall from dying a slow, quiet death, it's going to take a group effort. It's not fair to you to put the weight of everything on your shoulders. Let's get together and make LAFFBall great again.

Sincerely,

Veteran and New LAFFBallers

American Map of Furry Cons

2014-08-02T16:17:07Z

Yesterday, I posted a map of all furry cons in the United States to my Twitter account. As of this posting, the original tweet has 80+ favorites and 30+ retweets. I've received several questions and some criticism over the map. As a result, I want to explain the critieria I used to put this together.

First off, the source for the data is from Wikifur, a wonderful site for data on all things furry. If a convention that means all the criteria below is missing, then someone with knowledge should update the information on their website.

Now, to the criteria.

1. Only active cons. This means that I omitted conventions that are no longer viable, regardless of how recent. No FCN. No FurFright.

2. Only cons that have held one event. There are cons that would join the map soon: Furry Migration and Anthro New England are great examples. However, since they haven't had their first event yet, I had no attendance data to go on.

3. If no attendance data was easily available, the con was omitted from the map. This is the case with FurryCon and Campfire Tails, both which met the first two criteria, but which do not have posted attendance numbers.

I would love for this map to be a continuous project in the coming years. I think it would be fun to see how cons have become popular, how they've become unpopular, how they've gone defunct, all over time. It could also be useful to convention staffs who need to make date changes or, heaven forbid, location changes.

I welcome any constructive thoughts on this map. Thank you.

FA, MFF, and False Accusations

2014-07-08T23:38:44Z

I’ve been accused of a lot of things in my life, some from misinformation, some from simple miscommunications, and some from sociopaths with a black heart. Generally, I will either try to correct people or just laugh it off. However, there are times when people are so determined to ruin your name, you have to stand up and fight back. This is one of those times where one person’s lie has resulted in my name being pulled through the mud and my social status with my friends being strongly affected.

The story goes like this. A couple of weeks ago, @Novemurr IM’d me for the first time in several months. Apparently, his FA account had been hacked into and he was gathering information to figure out who did it. I told him that I had no knowledge of any hacking. It wasn’t clear to me at the time that no matter what I told him, I was going to get the blame. Before closing the chat window, he bragged that he had “inside information” that I had done this.

Now, my closest friends know that I am not the brightest when it comes to computers. I know how to use Excel, play videos on YouTube, and that’s about it. Asking me to hack into anything would be like asking anyone not named Arthur to pull the sword from the stone!

The following week, I’m linked by a friend to the “most boring YCH ever” on FurAffinity. When I click on the link, I receive a notice that my account had been suspended. I was baffled. This had to be a mistake. I refreshed the page. Nope, same message.

Reading the notice, I had been accused of vandalizing @Novemurr’s FA account and had been suspended for one month because of it. They justified this because of an IP address match.

As many people know, I host friends at my apartment constantly, practically every other weekend and sometimes during the week. As a result, many people have access to my laptop and in turn, my IP address. I don't want to outright blame my friends because I trust them with all my heart. There is also the possibility that someone duplicated my IP address for this act. I’ve consulted those who are well versed in the world of I/T and they have said that while this is very difficult, it’s far from impossible.

Immediately, I sent an e-mail to the FA accounts department, asking for further details. As of this writing, it has been over 2 weeks and 4 e-mails with no reply. (Granted, when the website doesn’t work half the time, do you really expect anyone associated with it to be working?) Despite FA refusing to share any information with me, there is an uninvolved group they proactively spread word to.

This weekend, I was contacted by a member of the @midwestfurfest board. He informed me that @Dragoneer had been in touch them recently. Dragoneer shared with the MFF board details surrounding my suspension; a liberty that was not given to me, as mentioned earlier. I explained to the board member everything written here so far. Though, I questioned why Dragoneer was going to the MFF board in the first place. What do any alleged actions have to do with my ability to be on MFF staff, especially when there isn’t a public relations issue involved?

Ultimately, I was informed that the MFF board requested that I step down as the fursuit track lead over a mere accusation of minor importance. The more I thought about it, it was clear this was not worth the time and energy to fight when the board refused to even give me an honest chance to defend myself from such bogus allegations.

One other reason they gave was that this was the “straw that broke the camel’s back.” That’s a creative way of putting it. The only other conflict I’ve experienced with MFF staff is when I openly disagreed with another board member’s opinion on how a now-defunct convention closed its door. This board member vilified their former staff for not “stepping up to the plate” when leadership wanted to step down, which I took personal offense to as I was staff for that con.

There are a couple of things that are crystal clear to me involving all of this.

1. @Novemurr has a petty grudge against me that he will continue to hold until the day he dies. He’s spent hours, if not days, digging up any dirt he can find (or asking others do it for him). When he can’t, he will crop tweets to take my quotes horribly out of context to vilify me. It’s laughable that he could take any moral high ground when his biggest contribution to the fandom is paying for porn of his character for others to view.

2. @Dragoneer must have some personal issue with me to bring a wild, unfounded accusation against me and to censor his accounts department. On top of this, to go to the MFF board to get me punished surrounding an issue that has nothing to do with the convention.

3. The board of @midwestfurfest needs to reevaluate their decision making process. Using bogus information from an unrelated third party to deny offers of time from would-be volunteers sets a poor precedence for future decisions.

I understand this entry could result in further actions against me by FurAffinity and their puppet master, @Dragoneer. At this point, it doesn’t matter. Add @Novemurr to the mix, and all parties involved are on a witch hunt to defame me to anybody who will listen. I refuse to let this happen. I don’t care how many combined followers these individuals have on their various accounts, the truth stands above all. These liars must be held accountable for what they spread.

Pick A Role

2012-09-09T06:54:39Z

Ok. Without knowing physical descriptions, which of the following five characters would you most like to play? Keep in mind, these are fursuit characters, so talking is strongly discouraged.

1.
"As the oldest of the brothers, #1 spent many hours picking on his little brothers. This trait has spilled over into other social situations with friends and acquaintances. While his playful antics can make him come off as something of a bully to some, they are always meant to be in good fun. #1 is also very competitive with his brothers and others. He will turn anything and everything into a contest and enjoys taking part in activities that encourage competition. It is not uncommon to see him wearing jerseys."

2.
"Being the 2nd oldest brother, #2 tried to avoid the label of being “#1's little brother.” However, puberty was kind to him and made him almost as tall as his older brother. To this day, he enjoys being the “tall, dark, and handsome” one in the family and plays the part very well. He is social, but far from overbearing. This suave gentleman flirts with everyone he meets, from close friends to complete strangers, but avoids being improper. #2 can be seen around the bar most often, sporting a jacket or dark dress shirt."

3.
"Being the middle child, #3 grew up surrendering attention to his two older brothers as well as his two younger brothers. Now as an adult, he is still starved for attention from anyone who will give it to him. Because of this, #3 is very quick to trust people and will quickly make friends in his mind, even if the other party doesn’t move as fast to do so. However, #3 is easily distracted by new people, especially those who give him more attention. It is not uncommon for him to make dozens of new “friends” in less than an hour of lobby roaming. As a way of getting attention, #3 has a very colorful wardrobe with Hawaiian shirts and other bright-colored clothing are his favorites to wear."

4.
"#4 is the 2nd youngest of the five brothers. From a very young age, he’s been told how cute and adorable he is and will use that to his advantage any chance he gets. #4 is the most blatantly flirty of the group, knowing that he was blessed with a desirable appearance. It’s never a surprise to see #4 sitting in someone’s lap in a hotel lobby or cuddled up in a visible corner with someone. Of the five, #4 is the one most likely to show up at a dance late at night, though he will drag one or more of his brothers along at times. #4 is a fan of trendy, preppy clothing, that is, if he’s wearing any at all."

5.
"Having just entered adulthood, #5 still possesses much of the same energy he had growing up in a house with four older brothers. While his species are energetic by nature, #5 takes the cake. He is the kid that could not sit still for more than a few seconds and has to be on the go all the time. If a group of people are boring him with conversation, he will quickly jump from group to group to find people who are doing something besides just talking. Like his oldest brother, #5 loves fun and games, but just as something physical to do. He doesn’t care much for the competitive aspect of such games. #5 loves all of his brothers, but looks up to #3 more than anybody. This is noticeable when he steals #3’s shirts and wears them as his own to go along with his favorite sunglasses."

Final Baseball Bracketology

2012-05-28T04:17:00Z

All 30 conference champions have been crowned, several in dramatic fashion. Fresno State won the WAC with a walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the 13th. Manhattan needed extras to win the MAAC. Samford needed 11 innings to win the SoCon. UCLA needed to hold off USC to win the Pac-12 title. Yesterday, Purdue took the Big Ten Championship after a bench-clearing brawl with in-state rival Indiana. This weekend was simply insane.

Of those 30 teams to earn automatic bids, only 2 will be hosting regionals, UCLA and Purdue. The other 14 hosts were reserved for at-large entrants. That means, on Monday, there will only be 20 spots up for grabs with the selection committee announces the field of 64 at 12pm EDT.

But now, for the final baseball bracketology of the 2012 season...

Baseball Bracketology - May 28, 2012
ALL CAPS - Conference champion

Tallahassee Regional #1 Florida State Vanderbilt SAMFORD (SoCon) UAB (C-USA)	Palo Alto Regional Stanford CAL STATE FULLERTON (Big West) Utah Valley FRESNO STATE (WAC)
Columbia Regional #8 South Carolina COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South) Louisville AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)	Raleigh Regional NC State Oregon State Appalachian State BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
Gainesville Regional #5 Florida Ucf KENT STATE (MAC) BETHUNE COOKMAN (Won MEAC)	Coral Gables Regional Miami MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC) STONY BROOK (America East) ARMY (Patriot)
Eugene Regional #4 Oregon Clemson Gonzaga CREIGHTON (MVC)	Gary Regional PURDUE (Big Ten) Arkansas Indiana State VALPARAISO (Horizon)
Chapel Hill Regional #6 North Carolina Mississippi UNC WILMINGTON (CAA) MANHATTAN (MAAC)	Tucson Regional Arizona San Diego New Mexico State MISSOURI (Big 12)
Waco Regional #3 Baylor Tcu UT ARLINGTON (Southland) ORAL ROBERTS (Summit)	Houston Regional Rice Oklahoma Missouri State CORNELL (Ivy)
Baton Rouge Regional #7 Lsu GEORGIA TECH (ACC) Texas LOUISIANA MONROE (Sun Belt)	College Station Regional Texas A&M Dallas Baptist Wichita State PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (SWAC)
Los Angeles Regional #2 UCLA (Pac 12) PEPPERDINE (WCC) NEW MEXICO (MWC) SACRED HEART (NEC)	Charlottesville Regional Virginia Kentucky SAINT JOHN'S (Big East) DAYTON (Atlantic-10)

First 6 Teams Out: Charleston, East Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington

Two days til Selection Monday

2012-05-26T18:39:45Z

Two days ago, I claimed that the conference baseball tournaments in May made the conference basketball tournaments look tame in comparison. After two days filled to the brim with upset after upset, the bubble looks a lot different and is much smaller. The only teams who have played their way into the NCAA Tournament talk are teams who needed to win their conference tourney. Well, many are just one win away from doing so.

The Big 12 is one of the major conferences who are looking to send an extra team. With A&M and Texas gone and Baylor on the cusp of elimination, the Big 12 will get an extra bid if Missouri or Kansas pulls an upset on Sunday.

In the Big East, Louisville was the only lock to make the NCAA Tournament. But with their early exit, the Big East is guaranteed a second bid, maybe a third if the committee shows a liking to Saint John's.

Conference USA, which had two locks and a bubble team going into their tournament, is down to two teams: 5th-seeded Memphis and 7th-seeded UAB, two teams who had no chance at playing in the NCAA Tourney as an at-large.

The list goes on and on...

In the Big Ten, Purdue is just one win away from winning their 1st Big Ten Tournament title in school history. This is bad news for the Big Ten as they may be a one-bid conference with Indiana needing to win the tourney to advance to the NCAA Tourney while Michigan State is one of the teams on that rapidly shrinking bubble.

Baseball Bracketology - May 26, 2012
ALL CAPS - Projected conference champion

Tallahassee Regional #1 Florida State Ucf SAMFORD (SoCon) SACRED HEART (Won NEC)	Palo Alto Regional Stanford CAL STATE FULLERTON (Big West) Utah Valley SACRAMENTO STATE (WAC)
Tucson Regional #8 Arizona San Diego NEW MEXICO (MWC) NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)	Gary Regional PURDUE (Big Ten) Arkansas Indiana State VALPARAISO (Horizon)
Gainesville Regional #5 FLORIDA (SEC) MIAMI (ACC) KENT STATE (MAC) BETHUNE COOKMAN (Won MEAC)	Raleigh Regional NC State Vanderbilt East Carolina ARMY (Won Patriot)
Los Angeles Regional #4 Ucla PEPPERDINE (WCC) Wake Forest CANISIUS (MAAC)	Charlottesville Regional Virginia Mississippi State STONY BROOK (Won America East) SAINT JOHN'S (Big East)
Baton Rouge Regional #6 LSU (SEC) Oregon State Texas LOUISIANA MONROE (Sun Belt)	College Station Regional Texas A&M Dallas Baptist Missouri State PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (Won SWAC)
Eugene Regional #3 OREGON (Pac-12) Ole Miss Gonzaga EASTERN ILLINOIS (OVC)	Lexington Regional Kentucky Clemson Louisville DAYTON (A-10)
Chapel Hill Regional #7 North Carolina COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South) UNC WILMINGTON (CAA) CORNELL (Won Ivy)	Columbia Regional South Carolina Georgia Tech Appalachian State BELMONT (Atlantic Sun)
Waco Regional #2 BAYLOR (Big 12) Tcu MEMPHIS (C-USA) UT-ARLINGTON (Southland)	Houston Regional Rice Oklahoma (Big 12) Washington SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)

Last 10 Teams Out: Virginia Tech, New Mexico State, Maryland, Wichita State, Sam Houston State, Charleston, Michigan State, Cal Poly, Tulane, California

Big Ten Tournament & Baseball Bracketology

2012-05-24T17:34:22Z

All across the country, conference baseball tournaments are taking place as I write this entry. From the Norwich, Connecticut down to Clearwater, Florida out to Las Vegas, Nevada, teams are fighting for their conference's automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. From experience I can tell you, if college basketball has madness in March, college baseball has Jack Torrance-level insanity.

Looking at things from a local perspective, the Big Ten Tournament at Huntington Park in Columbus has the chance to end the dreams of one of the many bubble teams.

Purdue - The Boilermakers are coming of their first conference championship since the Taft administration. In fact, the Boilermakers could be the first B1G team to host a regional since Michigan did so back in 2008. That is what Purdue is playing for this weekend. If they make it into the championship series on Saturday, they will most likely host a regional from U.S. Steel Yard in Gary, Indiana. If the Boilers lose to Ohio State today and make an early exit from the tournament, they may still host, but it would be as a #2 seed.

Michigan State - Sparty put together an impressive resume for the second straight season. Last year, the green and white missed out on the NCAA Tournament despite a 36-win season under head coach Jake Boss. This year, the bubble is weaker and the Spartans are firmly on it. They've already matched last year's win total. The committee may not like their series loss to lowly Michigan back in April, but have to like their road wins against Baylor and Purdue.

For the remaining four, Indiana, Penn State, Nebraska, and Ohio State, it's a win-and-in scenario. Anything less this weekend and their seasons are finished. In fact, Penn State and Nebraska play today in an elimination game which will end one team's season. Indiana and Ohio State face tough opponents in Michigan State and Purdue respectively later on today.

Up in Avon, Ohio, the MAC Tournament began yesterday. The MAC is a one-big league this year no matter how you slice it. The clear front runners are the Kent State Golden Flashes who finished 24-3 in conference play to win the East. If Kent State doesn't come out of the MAC, then it's anybody's guess. But with victories yesterday, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, and Miami University have the best chances of challenging last year's tournament darling.

The Horizon League Tournament is being played at Les Miller Field in Chicago, which has one of the most amazing backdrops in college baseball. Valparaiso is the #1 seed in the Horizon League Tournament, but the automatic bid could go to anybody in this conference. Wright State earned a bye in the tournament and is led by the Horizon Player of the Year in senior outfielder Tristan Moore. UIC is the #4 seed, but is the host of this tournament and has plenty of depth in the offense from 1 to 9.

Baseball Bracketology - May 24, 2012
ALL CAPS - Projected conference champion

Tallahassee Regional #1 FLORIDA STATE (ACC) UCF Vanderbilt FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Sun Belt)	Lexington Regional Kentucky MISSOURI STATE (MVC) Maryland KENT STATE (MAC)
College Station Regional #8 Texas A&M Tcu Wake Forest ORAL ROBERTS (Summit)	Houston Regional RICE (C-USA) Dallas Baptist Georgia Tech SAM HOUSTON STATE (Southland)
Los Angeles Regional #5 Ucla CAL STATE FULLERTON (Big West) UNC WILMINGTON (CAA) MANHATTAN (MAAC)	Charlottesville Regional Virginia Oregon State COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South) STONY BROOK (America East)
Gainesville Regional #4 Florida Miami Washington BETHUNE COOKMAN (Won MEAC)	Raleigh Regional NC State Mississippi State East Carolina AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
Baton Rouge Regional #6 LSU (SEC) Oklahoma Tulane SAINT LOUIS (A-10)	Palo Alto Regional Stanford Clemson Gonzaga CORNELL (Won Ivy)
Eugene Regional #3 OREGON (Pac-12) Pepperdine Utah Valley SACRED HEART (Won NEC)	Gary Regional PURDUE (Big Ten) LOUISVILLE (Big East) Indiana State VALPARAISO (Horizon)
Chapel Hill Regional #7 North Carolina Ole Miss APPALACHIAN STATE (SoCon) ARMY (Won Patriot)	Columbia Regional South Carolina Texas Charleston BELMONT (Atlantic Sun)
Waco Regional #2 BAYLOR (Big 12) Arkansas Wichita State PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (Won SWAC)	Tucson Regional Arizona SAN DIEGO (WCC) NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC) NEW MEXICO (MWC)

Last 10 Teams Out: Virginia Tech, Cal Poly, California, Long Beach State, Michigan State, Georgia, Elon, Washington State, Saint John's, SE Louisiana

FCN Fursuit Dance Competition

2012-03-28T18:07:56Z

Two weeks until FCN!

This is just a reminder to get yourself ready, get yourself in shape, and gets those feet movin'! You have only a short time until the prelims for the FCN Fursuit Dance Competition, then a short time plus one day until the FCN Fursuit Dance Competition Finals. A few things to touch on:

First, have your music ready. Remember, 2-minute time limit. Highest quality format: > 192Kbit MP3/OGG, FLAC, WAV file on a CD or flash drive, no iPods please. Also, if you have your music ready and want to avoid the possibility of losing your flash drive at the con, you can e-mail the file to me. huscoon (at) gmail (dot) com. This will save a lot of headaches. :)

Second, the prelims are for the dance performers and their handlers only, no exceptions. Photography will be strictly forbidden. However, we will allow for video taping of individual performances for the private use of the dancer(s) involved.

Finally, have fun. That is why we are all here. The dance talent within the fandom is at an all-time high and they love putting on a show for everyone else. But even if your dance talent isn't quite up to par with the best of the best, you can still have a wonderful time in these competitions, be an entertaining part of the Finals, and make some great friends along the way. I encourage every fursuiter of every skill level to tryout if you enjoy dancing. There will be no regrets :)

Good luck,

Huscoon

Complete rundown of the rules: goo.gl/NwLX1

Last Minute Bracketology

2012-03-11T21:29:20Z

I should be studying for finals which begin tomorrow. I should be more worried about my grade in actuarial mathematics and not worried about what our basketball team's seed will be. I should be in the library and not on my couch, eyes glued to CBS. But enough about what I should be doing, here is what I have done.

Final Four Matchups
Midwest vs. West
East vs. South

Top 4 Seeds
1. Kentucky
2. Syracuse
3. North Carolina
4. Michigan State

Midwest Region (St. Louis)
Louisville
(1)Kentucky vs. (16)Mississippi Valley St/Western Kentucky
(8)Iowa State vs. (9)Connecticut
Portland
(5)Indiana vs. (12)Southern Miss
(4)Georgetown vs. (13)New Mexico State
Columbus
(6)St. Mary's vs. (11)Xavier
(3)Michigan vs. (14)Colorado
Omaha
(7)San Diego State vs. (10)Virginia
(2)Missouri vs. (15)Lamar

West Region (Phoenix)
Columbus
(1)Michigan State vs. (16)Long Island
(8)St. Louis vs. (9)Long Beach State
Nashville
(5)Memphis vs. (12)Colorado State/BYU
(4)Louisville vs. (13)Belmont
Nashville
(6)New Mexico vs. (11)Harvard
(3)Florida State vs. (14)Davidson
Omaha
(7)Gonzaga vs. (10)Alabama
(2)Kansas vs. (15)Montana

East Region (Boston)
Pittsburgh
(1)Syracuse vs. (16)Norfolk State/Vermont
(8)UNLV vs. (9)VCU
Albuquerque
(5)Creighton vs. (12)Miami/South Florida
(4)Wisconsin vs. (13)Ohio
Albuquerque
(6)Florida vs. (11)California
(3)Baylor vs. (14)Lehigh
Greensboro
(7)Cincinnati vs. (10)Purdue
(2)Duke vs. (15)Loyola Maryland

South Region (Atlanta)
Greensboro
(1)North Carolina vs. (16)UNC-Asheville
(8)Notre Dame vs. (9)Kansas State
Portland
(5)Vanderbilt vs. (12)West Virginia
(4)Wichita State vs. (13)South Dakota State
Louisville
(6)Murray State vs. (11) N.C. State
(3)Marquette vs. (14)St. Bonaventure
Pittsburgh
(2)Ohio State vs. (15)Detroit
(7)Temple vs. (10)Texas

NIT Bound
Drexel
Seton Hall
Iona
Washington
Arizona
Mississippi
Oregon
Northwestern
St. Joseph's
Marshall
Minnesota
Middle Tennessee
Akron

Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament Scenarios

2012-03-02T07:39:19Z

Seventeen down, one more to go. It's hard to believe the Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament is less than a week away. Everyone in the conference plays this weekend, then the seeds will be set and it's off to Indy where the top teams will look to improve their NCAA seedings, the bubble teams will look to make one more positive impression on the selection committee, and the basement dwellers will try to pull of the greatest Cinderella story that this tournament has ever seen.

Here is a run down of the current seedings:

1. Michigan State (13-4)
2. Michigan (12-5, 1-1 vs. MSU)
3. Ohio State (12-5, 0-1 vs. MSU)
4. Wisconsin (11-6)
5. Indiana (10-7, head-to-head w/ PUR)
6. Purdue (10-7)
7. Iowa (8-9)
8. Northwestern (7-10)
9. Illinois (6-11)
10. Minnesota (5-12)
11. Nebraska (4-13, 1-1 vs. IND & PUR)
12. Penn State (4-13, 1-3 vs. IND & PUR)

If you are curious about how the tiebreakers work, you can just click here or trust me the rest of the way. There are numerous two-way ties that are still possible as well as a couple of potential three-way ties. Let's rundown the possibilities and what it means for various Big Ten schools.

1. Michigan State will be the #1 seed even with a loss to Ohio State on Sunday. Even though that would mean splits with both Ohio State and Michigan, their two wins over Wisconsin will ensure they get the #1 seed in Indianapolis no matter what.

2. Because of their 1-0 record vs. Wisconsin, Michigan holds the tiebreaker over Ohio State at the moment. However, if Purdue beats Indiana and Wisconsin falls to Illinois, the Buckeyes get the tiebreaker. Both the Boilers and Badgers will haved finished tied at 11-7. OSU and UM would be 2-1 vs. 11-7 teams. The tiebreaker will go all the way down to Iowa and give the Buckeyes the tiebreaker because of Michigan's embarrassing 75-59 loss back on January 14 in Iowa City.

3. Ohio State cannot fall below Wisconsin nor a #3 seed because the Badgers' 59-41 loss to Michigan all the way back on January 8 in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes split their season series with the Wolverines. In turn, Michigan holds the tiebreaker over Wisconsin because of their lone meeting this season.

4. Wisconsin is locked in at the #4 seed. While they can't leapfrog Ohio State, they cannot be passed by either of the schools in Indiana because of their 1-0 records against both schools. On January 12, Wisconsin beat Purdue on the road, 67-62. Then two weeks later, they beat Indiana in Madison, 57-50.

5. If Ohio State and Michigan both lose and Wisconsin wins, there will be a three-way tie for 2nd in the Big Ten. In this scenario, Michigan (2-1) gets the #2 seed, despite a would-be loss to Penn State, Ohio State (2-2) gets the #3 seed, and Wisconsin (1-2), as mentioned before, gets the #4 seed.

6. Indiana and Purdue cannot tie each other in the standings because they play this weekend in Bloomington. The Hoosiers have an 81% chance of winning according to Ken Massey.

7. The winner of the Northwestern-Iowa game will get the #7 seed right behind the loser of the Purdue-Indiana game. Northwestern would hold the tiebreaker based on a season sweep of the Hawkeyes.

8. Despite splits with both Northwestern and Minnesota, Illinois holds the tiebreaker over both with their 1-0 record vs. Michigan State. This guarantees the Illini will play in the 8-9 game on Thursday in Indianapolis and would face Sparty again if they advance to the quarterfinals.

9. If Nebraska spoils Minnesota's senior day, they would hold the tiebreaker over the Gophers. While both teams hold wins over Indiana, Minnesota also holds a loss to the Hoosiers.

10. If Penn State adds to this mess by upsetting Michigan alongside a Huskers win in Minneapolis, then we have a three-way tie at the bottom of the Big Ten. In this case, head-to-head records prevail. Minnesota (2-1) would get the #10 seed, Nebraska (2-2) would get the #11 seed, and Penn State (1-2) would get the #12 seed.

11. Finally, if Nebraska and Penn State both lose as expected, there will be a two-way tie at the bottom of the Big Ten. In this case, the tiebreaker will be decided by the Purdue-Indiana game. If the favored Hoosiers win, Nebraska gets the #11 seed. If the Boilers pull off the upset, then Penn State gets the #11 seed.

Finally, if all the favorites win (this is the Big Ten, are you kidding me?), this is how the bracket will shake out:

Thu, Mar 1:
9-Illinois (6-12) vs. 8-Northwestern (7-11), 11:30AM, BTN
12-Penn State (4-14) vs. 5-Indiana (11-7), 1:55PM, BTN
10-Minnesota (6-12) vs. 7-Iowa (9-9), 5:30PM, ESPN2
11-Nebraska (4-14) vs. 6-Purdue (10-8), 7:55PM, ESPN2

Fri, Mar 2:
NW/ILL vs. 1-Michigan State (14-4), 12:00PM, ESPN
IND/PSU vs. 4-Wisconsin (12-6), 2:25PM, ESPN
IOWA/MINN vs. 2-Michigan (13-5), 6:00PM, BTN
PUR/NEB vs. 3-Ohio State (12-6), 8:25PM, BTN

Sat, Mar 3:
MSU/NW/ILL vs. WIS/IND/PSU, 1:40PM, CBS
MICH/IOWA/MINN vs. OSU/PUR/NEB, 4:05PM, CBS

Sun, Mar 4:
Big Ten Tournament Championship, 3:30PM, CBS

Taking a Number Two

2012-02-21T04:46:32Z

Russell Westbrook's 40-point performance and Serge Ibaka's triple-double were side notes in the Thunder's 10th straight home win over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night, 124-118. (After tonight's win over the Hornets, that home winning streak is at 11 games.) In what is the midseason front-runner for NBA game of the year, Kevin Durant put up a career high 51 points against a Nuggets team with more questions than answers on defense. If there were any doubters left from Durant's pre-draft concerns, they were silenced once and for all.

Going into the 2007 NBA Draft, Kevin Durant made headlines when he was unable to bench 225 pounds during a pre-draft workout. According to most experts, the 2007 Draft was Greg Oden and everybody else. But honestly, what does anybody know going into a draft? In the past five years, KD has proven all of his doubters wrong and turned the former Seattle Supersonics into the top small market team in the NBA. Not bad for the #2 overall pick.

In recent history, the #2 overall pick has been infamous in the NBA. Ohio State's own Evan Turner, taken #2 by the 76ers in 2010, is still struggling to find his place in the rotation of the surging team. K-State's Michael Beasley, taken #2 by Miami in 2008, was famously traded to lowly Minnesota when LeBron James and Chris Bosh came on as free agents. Though, there is still plenty of time for Beasley to avoid bust status. Darko Milicic is one of the biggest busts in recent memory. The Serbian was drafted by Detroit between LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. While both have gone on to have Hall of Fame careers, Darko has fallen into obscurity, shuffled between five different teams in his career. In 2000, the Vancouver Grizzlies selected Stromile Swift from LSU with the 2nd overall pick. In his sophomore season, Swift started only 26 games and that would turn out to be his career high as he was moved around to 5 total franchises during his NBA career.

That being said, many players have been taken with the #2 pick and have gone on to not become star players, All-NBA selections, and future Hall of Famer. It's widely believed that Kevin Durant, when it's all said and done, will be on the list. So with apologies to Bailey Howell, Wes Unseld, Rik Barry, and Terry Cummings, let's look at the Top 5 #2 picks whose careers are looked by on with pride and praise.

#5 - Jason Kidd: After two years at Cal-Berkeley, Kidd declared for the 1994 NBA Draft. Many don't remember that he was drafted by his current team, the Dallas Mavericks, with the 2nd overall pick. Kidd, along with Grant Hill, won the NBA Rookie of the Year, becoming the only bright spot on a lowly Mavs team. In 1996, Kidd was traded to the Suns and became a regular in the NBA playoffs. Kidd started for playoff teams for 11 straight seasons while being named to the All-NBA First Team five teams. In 2011, Kidd proved third time is a charm, winning his first NBA Championship on his 3rd trip to the NBA Finals.

#4 - Bob Pettit: The Milwaukee Hawks took a risk when they made Bob Pettit the 2nd overall pick in the 1954 NBA Draft. There were questions as to how well the two-time All-American's game would transition to the NBA. It didn't take long for Pettit to make an impact in the NBA, winning the Rookie of the Year in 1955, then won the league's scoring title and named league MVP as a sophomore in 1955-56. The next season, Pettit led all players in playoffs scoring, averaging 29.8 points per game. Finally, in 1958, the Hawks and Pettit won their first ever NBA Championship. Pettit would go on to win another MVP in 1959, be named to the All-NBA First Team 10 straight seasons, and never miss an NBA All-Star Game.

#3 - Gary Payton: The Thunder franchise has only had the 2nd overall pick twice is franchise history. In both cases, they used the pick well. Payton didn't develop as quickly as Kidd and Pettit, but his longetivity puts him above both in this list. Payton is #8 in career assists, one of a handful of point guards with over 20,000 points scored, and the Sonics' career leader in minutes, points, 3-pointers, assists, and steals. But what Payton is best known for is his rivalry with Michael Jordan as two of the best defenders in NBA history, meeting in the 1996 NBA Finals which went to the Bulls in 6 games. Though 10 years later, Payton would finally win his NBA Championship with the Miami Heat.

#2 - Jerry West: There is absolutely no doubt about these final two players. Simply put, you know you had a great career when your silhouette is used to make the league's logo. The Lakers took West with the 2nd overall pick in 1960. He would take part in the All-Star Game in his rookie season in 1961. That was the 1st of 14 All-Star appearances during his 14 years in the league. But West's success with the Lakers spans beyond his playing years. He went from coach, to scout, to GM, all within the Lakers organization, leading up to their dynasty throughout the 80s, winning 5 NBA Championships in that decade. West has since won the NBA Executive of the Year award twice, once with the Lakers and once with the Grizzlies.

#1 - Bill Russell: Everyone else on this list has won an NBA Championship. So how does Bill Russell set himself apart from numbers two through five? Win 11 NBA Championships. Two years after the Hawks took Bob Pettit with the 2nd overall, they used their 2nd overall pick in 1956 to take Bill Russell. However, Celtics head coach Red Auerbach worked with the Hawks to make a trade for the San Francisco Dons star. This trade would define the Celtics for decades to come. 12 All-Star appearances, 5 MVPs, and 11 NBA Championships later, Bill Russell is the greatest #2 in the history of the NBA.

Second-Tier Dilemma

2012-02-16T19:59:48Z

With a little over three weeks until Selection Sunday, teams across the country are trying to play their way into the tournament, improve their seed, or in cases like Penn State, pull off a string of miracles in Indianapolis to get the automatic bid. Looking at more bracketology sites, it's becoming clearer that Kentucky and Syracuse will get the top two national seeds and be the #1 seeds in the Atlanta and Boston regionals respectively. But what about the St. Louis regional and does anyone really want to be the #1 seed in Phoenix? Or, would a Big Ten or Big 12 team rather stay closer to home as a #2 seed? That, my friends, is the second tier dilemma and a question for Matta's Buckeyes in these final weeks.

For decades, the NCAA Selection Committee has worked to get the top at-large teams into the tournament and keep teams fairly close to home. Sometimes that just doesn't work out. Just ask Duke, who entered the tournament as a #1 seed, but was shipped to Anaheim for the Sweet 16. There, Duke was massacred by the Arizona Wildcats from the lowly Pac-10 Conference. But earlier that night, UConn provided a counterargument, knocking off San Diego State. 2,525 miles separate the campus is Storrs from Anaheim. San Diego State? A mere 89-mile difference. So, is there really a difference or is this a much ado about nothing?

One possible way to look at this is comparing the tournament performances of the #1 seed who had to travel the furthest alongside the #2 seed who had the shortest distance to travel. In the past six tournaments, only once has the #1 seed farthest away from home advanced further into the tournament than the #2 seed closest to campus. In fact, four times in the past six teams, the #2 seed closest to home advanced all the way to the Final Four. San Diego State's regional semifinal exit last season was the worst performance by such a #2 seed since the UConn Huskies didn't make it past the second round in 2005, losing to #10 seed N.C. State in Worchester, Massachusetts.

Year	Farthest #1	Regional	Distance (mi)	Lost In	Closest #2	Regional	Distance (mi)	Lost In
2011	Duke	Anaheim	2203	Sweet 16	San Diego St.	Anaheim	89	Sweet 16
2010	Syracuse	Salt Lake City	1833	Sweet 16	West Virginia	Syracuse, N.Y.	308	Final Four
2009	UConn	Glendale, Ariz.	2238	Final Four	Michigan St.	Indianapolis	223	Nat'l Runner-Up
2008	Kansas	Detroit	680	Nat'l Champion	Texas	Houston	146	Elite Eight
2007	Kansas	San Jose	1449	Elite Eight	Georgetown	E. Rutherford, N.J.	206	Final Four
2006	Memphis	Oakland	1793	Elite Eight	UCLA	Oakland	344	Nat'l Runner-Up

Here is Ohio State's dilemma going into the final weeks of the season. After their first home loss in 40 games last week to Michigan State, they fell to a #2 seed in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology this past Monday. There is no need for Buckeye fans to panic yet because they still have one more game vs. Michigan State and a possible date with them in Indianapolis. However, if the Buckeyes fall short against Sparty again, they may be heading someplace other than St. Louis for the regionals. In fact, it's very likely they will go someplace other than St. Louis.

Right now, Kentucky and Syracuse are going to Atlanta and Boston respectively. The third #1 seed, whether they're from the Big Ten, Big 12, or ACC, will probably go to St. Louis. Finally, the fourth #1 seed will get shipped off to Phoenix, whether they want to or not. This means that for OSU to be a #1 in St. Louis, they will have to climb back over everybody, including Kansas and Michigan State, two teams that have added to the Buckeyes' loss column this season.

How about a #2 seed in St. Louis? To be forward, the Buckeyes need to knock off Sparty on the road, which they've done 3 of their last 5 times in East Lansing. On top of that, OSU needs to outlast Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. If the Buckeyes can do this, they will get the nod to go to St. Louis over Michigan State. This is especially probable if the #1 seed in St. Louis goes to a team from the Big 12, which is very likely with Kansas and Missouri playing some of the best basketball in the country right now.

There is still the chance of the Buckeyes going to Atlanta or Boston. However, it's almost a guarantee that Ohio State would have a date with Kentucky or Syracuse in the Elite Eight. On top of that, there is a good chance that if North Carolina goes on a run in the final weeks, something everybody knows they are capable of, they will move themselves into a favorable position and get the nod for the #2 in Atlanta if they avoid getting that dreaded Phoenix #1 seed.

There are some teams that don't have a problem with playing a long way from home in the NCAA Tournament. UConn had to go through the regional in Anaheim to win the national championship last season. Before that, their trip to the 2004 national championship took the Huskies through Phoenix. That's without mentioning their 2009 run to the Final Four through Glendale, Arizona. In 2010, Butler, the famous mid-major from Indianapolis, had to go through San Jose and Salt Lake City to make it to the national championship game in which they were a 3-pointer away from the most improbable run in NCAA Tournament history.

Come March 11, after the Big Ten Tournament, after all the games have been played, when the Committee makes their announcement, will the Buckeyes get a short trip to St. Louis or Atlanta? Or, will the Buckeyes have to travel west of the Rockies for the first time since J.J. Sullinger was a sophomore?

FCN Dance Competition

2012-01-17T19:42:22Z

Hey dancin' fuzzies!

Now that FC has passed, it is time to start thinking about your next dance competition, or in some cases, your first dance competition. I'm happy to inform you that for the first time ever, FCN will be hosting its own fursuit dance competition. Now, how will this be different than the other dance competitions out there?

First, do you have a dancing partner or four that you would love to share the stage with? Perfect! We invite several different kinds of acts, not just solo dance routines. You can compete individually, as a couple, or in a crew of up to 5 people if you wish.

Also, "crowd reaction" will be included in your final score. Simply put, the louder your audience cheers for you, the better your final score will be! How cool is that?

For those of you who are debating whether or not to go to FCN 2012, I have something that I hope will encourage you to attend. In April, we will have the convention's very first fursuit dance competition. Now, I know that many of the other cons have a dance competition and how will this be any different? I will explain.

The biggest difference is the expanded number of ways you can perform. For this dance competition, you can enter as an individual, as a couple, or as a dance crew of up to 5 fursuiters. So if you and some of your buddies have a routine you want to show the world, you are encouraged to bring your skills to Michigan this spring and try out for our dance competition. If couples dancing is more of your thing and you want a place to showcase it, you are also encouraged to show off your talent at FCN 2012. And, if you're loner who can grab the spotlight with your own moves, this competition is ideal for you as well.

Here are some details about the competition itself:

If you want to take part in the Finals, you must qualify at the prelims.
- We will take the top 12 performances to the Finals.
As mentioned, you may compete as an individual, a couple, or a crew of up to 5 fursuiters.
- You can compete a maximum of 2 times in prelims and 1 time in the Finals.
- If you compete twice in prelims, 1 of the 2 must be an individual act.
- If you qualify for the Finals as both an individual and couple/crew, the couple/crew will take precedence.
For the prelims and the Finals, you must pick your own music.
- Time limit for both the prelims and Finals is 2 minutes.
- It is your responsibility to provide us with a CD, flash drive, or file of the song you are using.
- If you have not edited or cropped the song at all, we will start at the beginning and stop at 2:00.
Your score will be based on the following:
- Showmanship: How entertaining and appealing your performance is.
- Technique: How you execute and perform your dance moves.
- Difficulty: How easily can your dance be duplicated.
- Synchronization: How well you integrate your moves to the music and your partner(s) if applicable.
- Crowd Reaction: How loudly the audience responses to your performance, this will be measured with a sound meter and added to your score. (Finals only)
Time and location for the prelims and Finals have not be set as of today.

A quick explanation about the scoring. Each judge will rate each performance based on the categories listed above. In each of the first 4 categories, the judge will give a score, 1-10.

As for the Crowd Reaction category, a sound meter will gauge the volume of the audience's reaction to each performance. The loudest reaction at the Finals, in decibels, will earn a 10 in that category. For every decibel lower your performance's reaction is compared to that of the loudest, your Crowd Reaction score will drop by one. For example, if the loudest reaction is 87 dB, whoever earned that reaction gets a 10 in Crowd Reaction. If your performance gets a reaction of 85 dB, you will earn an 8 for Crowd Reaction. The lowest you can score in any category is 1. So, if you get a reaction of 74 dB in this scenario, you will get a Crowd Reaction score of 1, not -3.

The best score you can get from any single judge is 50 (all 10s). The worst score you can get from any single judge is 5 (all 1s). The scores from -all- the judges will be combined, and that will be the score for your performance. Whoever's performance earns the highest score will win the dance competition.

If you have any questions regarding the dance competition, please e-mail me at huscoon(at)gmail(dot)com. I'm also available on Yahoo Messenger, AIM, and Twitter under the username "huscoon."

Thank you and good luck!

http://goo.gl/NwLX1

2011-12 NHL Preview

2011-10-06T22:33:01Z

NHL Rk	Atlantic	Comments
4	Philadelphia	Nobody has been as active this offseason as the Broad Street Bullies. The Flyers lost a big scoring threat in Jeff Carter to the Blue Jackets in the biggest trade of the summer. However, they acquired Ilya Bryzaglov from Phoenix in the second biggest trade of the summer, shoring up their goaltender situation. Even with all the personnel changes, don't expect the Flyers to fall off any this coming season.
7	Pittsburgh	Despite losing Sidney Crosby to a concussion and Evgeni Malkin to a knee injury, the Penguins finished the season with the same number of points as the Flyers on top of the Atlantic. Malkin will be back in 2011-12, but no one knows when Sid the Kid will return. The sooner he returns, the better his team's chances are of winning the Atlantic. It's simple, but truer words have never been spoken.
13	New Jersey	The tale of two halves in Newark has given hope to many fans that their team will never be out of playoff contention until they are mathematically out of playoff contention. But which Devils team will show up this year? Scoring will be a problem, no doubt. However, by adding 1st round pick Adam Larsson to an already outstanding core of defensemen, it'll be very difficult for opposing teams to score on Brodeur and company.
14	N.Y. Rangers	In New York fashion, the Rangers will try to spend their way back into the playoffs in 2012. Brad Richards to Gaborik could be one of the best lines in the East by the end of the season. However, the Rangers have a very young core of defensemen who will create plenty of work for Henrik Lundqvist. The only question is: can Lundqvist and his legendary durability survive another 70-game season without fatigue?
27	N.Y. Islanders	In 2007, Garth Snow was named the Sports Illustrated NHL Executive of the Year. Since then, the Islanders have been buried under their Atlantic rivals, finishing in last each season. This season will be no different. The goaltender situation is a mess, their biggest acquisition was an over-the-hill Brian Rolston, and the defensemen, aside from Mark Streit, have much to be desired. Just another typical season on Long Island.

NHL Rk	Northeast	Comments
1	Boston	Boston fans have quickly forgotten about their baseball team's historic collapse in September and are now ready for their Bruins to defend their Cup. Peter Chiarelli took a "if it's not broke, don't fix it" approach to offseason moves this summer. Yes, the Bruins do give up a lot of shots on goal, but Tim Thomas is as proven as any netminder in hockey and is more than capable of leading this team to a Cup repeat.
6	Buffalo	However, there's a team in upstate New York that cannot be ignored when talking about Northeast favorites. The Sabres signed talented defenseman Christian Ehrhoff and a very underrated forward in Ville Leino on back-to-back days this summer. Plus with Ryan Miller between the pipes, the sky is the limit for this team. But, the predicted regular season success will mean nothing if the Sabres can't find their way out of the first round of the playoffs this year.
17	Montreal	To be competitive in the Northeast, a team needs an all-world netminder. The Habs definitely have that in Carey Price. The talented workhorse put up a .923 save percentage while starting 72 regular season games last year. But around him, the Habs simply don't measure up to their top tier competition. Gionta leads an above average first line, Andrei Markov is a great offensive defenseman, but the depth issues in Montreal will be difficult to overcome.
25	Toronto	The Leafs are one of two teams who have not made the playoffs since the lockout, the other being the lowly Panthers. After a hot finish last season, there is some hope that Ron Wilson's team will change that. Tim Connolly was a great sign after the Leafs failed to ink Brad Richards. But does Connolly have enough talent around him to make a run at the playoffs? That is the $64,000 question.
28	Ottawa	The Sens are in complete rebuilding mode, but unlike their intraprovince rival, they know this. Bobby Butler will be the cornerstone of this rebuilding project in Ottawa and hockey fans should take notice as he will be a future All-Star and a major contributor to the USA hockey team in 2014. Add new head coach Paul MacLean from Detroit, and you have a team who could be very dangerous come 2013-14.

NHL Rk	Southeast	Comments
5	Washington	Like their hated rivals in Philly, the Caps have had years of goalie issues since Olaf Kolzig's skills disappeared into thin air. Enter veteran Tomas Vokoun who disappeared in South Beach and could very likely see an resurgence in the nation's capital. Vokoun's postseason play is shady at best, but he's never had as much talent around him as he will in DC.
16	Carolina	Cam Ward went from the most overrated goalie after the Hurricanes 2006 Stanley Cup Championship and is now one of the more underrated. Unfortunately for him, the poor play of his defensemen forced him to see over 33 shots-per-game last season. If the Hurricanes make the postseason, it'll be because of Ward and a great platoon of young forwards, led by Eric Staal, and featuring former Buckeye Zac Dalpe.
18	Tampa Bay	Every 3 or 4 postseasons, Dwayne Roloson plays way above his skill level for a couple of weeks, then returns to earth the following season. So forget that magical playoff run, Roloson simply is not that good. Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos, and a core of underrated defensemen on the other hand will keep the always exciting Lightning in the race for the postseason.
22	Winnipeg	After 15 years of waiting, fans in Manitoba are ecstatic to have NHL hockey returning to Winnipeg. However, keep in mind, this is still the Atlanta Thrashers, repackaged and given a real fan base who will actually attend their games. Andrew Ladd and Manitoba-native Eric Fehr come to Winnipeg from Cup contenders. They will be the face of this franchise who is looking to find a new direction in their new home.
26	Florida	The Panthers are the most unpredictable team in the East heading into this season. After 10 sasons without a playoff appearance, the Panthers cleaned house, Tomas Fleischmann being the biggest of many names signed. However, none of the names signed stand out as franchise-caliber players. So it looks like no matter the name on the back, it's still the same feline on the front of the jerseys.

NHL Rk	Central	Comments
3	Chicago	In 2010-11, the Blackhawks outscored their opponents by a stunning 33 goals, 3rd best in the West. However, losing a ton of one-goal games sent them to 8th place, pitting them against the eventual Western Conference Champs in the first round. This year, the same key players all return from last year including a healthy Marian Hossa and Patrick Kane, not to mention Jonathan Toews. The Hawks are simply the team to beat in the Central.
10	St. Louis	How are the lowly Blues a top 10 team in the NHL? First, no team in the West gave up fewer shots on goal than the Blues last year. Second, Jaroslav Halak will be a strong asset between the pipes if he takes care of his consistency issues. Andy McDonald leads a solid group of forwards while the depth at every position is impressive. The Blues are a playoff team, without question.
11	Detroit	Many experts were expecting the aging Red Wings to take a step back last year as the roster continues to grow older. The team from Motown proved them all wrong by winning the Central yet again. However, Lidstrom has very little help on the blue line and is aging poorly himself. Then there is Jimmy Howard, whose play would get him benched on many other teams. This year will be the year the Wings take a step back.
15	Nashville	This ranking for Nashville is based of the belief that Pekka Rinne may have issues duplicating his career season. If Rinne can put together another Vezina worthy season, the Predators can ride him to and through the playoffs. However, if a major regression takes place, the Predators will struggle mightily in the most difficult division in hockey.
20	Columbus	After finishing 14th and 13rd in the West the last two seasons, the Blue Jackets are poised for a resurgence. The addition of Jeff Carter and James Wisniewski has brought hope once again to Ohio's capital city. But the inconsistency of Steve Mason is cause for concern, not to mention the fact the Jackets are still in the Central Division (for now). The playoffs aren't out of the question, but they'll have to overachieve to get it.

NHL Rk	Northwest	Comments
2	Vancouver	Forget about his collapse in the Cup Finals, Roberto Luongo is still one of the best goaltenders in the world right now. The Canucks still have the Sedin twins, former Buckeye Ryan Kesler, plenty of depth among their forwards, and the superb core of defensemen. These are the reasons the Canucks are the favorites in Vegas to win the Stanley Cup.
19	Calgary	After the Canucks, the talent drops off greatly in the Northwest Division. Even at age 34, Jarome Iginla is still one of the premier forwards in the world, but that isn't the question. The question is the talent around him. The Flames are loaded with underachieving prospects, mid-level free agents, and a former Vezina Trophy winner Miikka Kiprusoff who stats are heading in the wrong direction.
24	Minnesota	Niklas Backstrom took over as the #1 goaltender in St. Paul back in 2006 and his numbers have been sliding downhill ever since. Losing Andrew Brunette to free agency also does not help one of the worst offenses in hockey. The Wild have plenty of young talent, but how quickly they mature will determine their chances for a postseason appearance.
29	Colorado	The good news in Denver is that Matt Duchene is as good as the Avs could've hoped when they drafted him 2 years ago. The bad news, the 20-year-old may be the best player on the roster this season. Not best prospect, best player. Fans in Denver will have another "rocky" season ahead. But thankfully, they're in the same division as...
30	Edmonton	The Edmonton Oilers. Dead last in hockey the last two seasons and there is no reason to believe things will change any time soon. Optimistic fans will point to the amount of youth of their roster and proclaim the team is building for the future. But, the sad truth is that the youth on the Oilers NHL roster isn't as good as the youth on some franchise's AHL rosters.

NHL Rk	Pacific	Comments
8	Los Angeles	Is there really a better 1-2 punch between the pipes than Quick and Bernier? Absolutely not. But the talent extends past them. Mike Richards comes from Philly to join the most underrated forward in hockey, Anze Kopitar. And that's all without mentioning Simon Gagne, Dustin Penner, and a solid core of defensemen. Come April, LA fans will be saying, "Kobe who?"
9	Anaheim	Did the idea of playing with Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry have a role in Teemu Selanne's decision to return to the Ducks? Most likely. Add in the NHL's best defensive line in Toni Lydman and Lubomir Visnovsky and you have a team that has as good of a chance as any to win the Pacific.
12	San Jose	Are fans in the Bay area getting sick of the constant failure in the playoffs by their beloved Sharks? Absolutely. It's reminiscent of the Blues' impressive 25 playoff appearance streak that never resulted in a Cup. However, the Sharks are going to have to work to make the playoffs this year. The downturn can be blamed on, not the lack of stars, but the lack of depth at several key positions.
21	Dallas	The Stars were much better than their last place finish suggested last year. However, there was a guy named Brad Richards on the team. Mike Ribeiro is very capable of replacing Richards as the team's top playmaker, but the Stars simply did not do enough this summer for anyone to believe they will improve, let alone make the postseason.
23	Phoenix	If the Coyotes management was trying to use this summer to encourage fans to attend their regular season games, they did a terrible job. Exit Ilya Bryzgalov, enter Mike Smith. Exit Ed Jovanovski, enter Raffi Torres. It simply hasn't been a very promising offseason in Arizona, or Hamilton, or Quebec, or Kansas City, or wherever the Coyotes end up in 2012-13.

Eastern Quarterfinals
#1 Boston over #8 Carolina in 4
#2 Philadelphia over #7 N.Y. Rangers in 5
#3 Washington over #6 New Jersey in 6
#4 Buffalo over #5 Pittsburgh in 6

Western Quarterfinals
#1 Vancouver over #8 Nashville in 5
#2 Chicago over #7 San Jose in 6
#3 Los Angeles over #6 Detroit in 7
#4 Anaheim over #5 St. Louis in 7

Eastern Semifinals
#1 Boston over #4 Buffalo in 6
#2 Philadelphia over #3 Washington in 7

Western Semifinals
#1 Vancouver over #4 Anaheim in 5
#2 Chicago over #3 Los Angeles in 6

Eastern Finals
#1 Boston over #2 Philadelphia in 5

Western Finals
#1 Vancouver over #2 Chicago in 7

Stanley Cup Finals
Boston over Vancouver in 6

Week 1 NFL Rankings

2011-09-13T20:53:10Z

My bottom 5 preseason teams all won on Week 1. To add insult to injury, my AFC Champs lost in embarrassing fashion to the Ravens. Looks like several bad calls on my part, right? Hold on.

I warned that Chicago was better than advertised, and they took care of business at home against the Falcons, who SI picked to win the Super Bowl. I had San Fran winning the NFC West, and they had, by far, the best week of any of those 4 teams. I called the Raiders' win over the hapless Broncos. That all being said, let's go down the new list.

1(LW: 1) Green Bay (1-0)
2(4) New England (1-0)
3(6) Baltimore (1-0)
4(5) San Diego (1-0)
5(3) New Orleans (0-1)
6(2) Pittsburgh (0-1)
7(8) Philadelphia (1-0)
8(7) N.Y. Jets (1-0)
9(11) Houston (1-0)
10(12) Chicago (1-0)
11(13) San Francisco (1-0)
12(10) N.Y. Giants (0-1)
13(15) Detroit (1-0)
14(9) Atlanta (0-1)
15(16) Tampa Bay (0-1)
16(19) Oakland (1-0)
17(17) St. Louis (0-1)
18(14) Indianapolis (0-1)
19(18) Tennessee (0-1)
20(21) Dallas (0-1)
21(18) Kansas City (0-1)
22(22) Miami (0-1)
23(23) Cleveland (0-1)
24(24) Minnesota (0-1)
25(25) Denver (0-1)
26(28) Arizona (1-0)
27(29) Washington (1-0)
28(30) Cincinnati (1-0)
29(31) Buffalo (1-0)
30(32) Jacksonville (1-0)
31(26) Carolina (0-1)
32(27) Seattle (0-1)

NFL Preview

2011-09-08T21:32:40Z

Quick note before we begin. The teams are listed in order of projected finish. The ranking is how they compare to other teams, strength of schedule ignored. Astericks are for the playoff teams. Enjoy :)

NFL Rk	AFC East	Comments
4	New England*	Tom Brady is back. Bill Belicheck is still running the defense. All in well in the state of Massachusetts. Add to that the best platoon of running backs in the Belicheck era, led by BenJarvus Green-Ellis. A division is almost a sure thing in New England. The playoffs are a lock. However, the goals are much, much higher than those. As they should be.
7	N.Y. Jets*	The Jets will actually have a better defense in 2011 than division rival New England. However, their offense will prevent them from winning the AFC East this season. Mark Sanchez hasn't matured well and Shonn Greene is a one-trick pony out of the backfield. And without a pass-catching threat at tight end, Sanchez's options will be very limited.
22	Miami	Speaking of offensive issues, the Dolphins enter 2011 with plenty of them. Chad Henne will have a rookie running back, Daniel Thomas, and a psuedo-bust, Reggie Bush, in his backfield. Brandon Marshall is the offense's biggest asset when he's not incurring delay-of-game penalties and being a locker room cancer. Sadly, this is a make-or-break year for a team whose progress is stuck in neutral.
32	Buffalo	If the Bills are trying to disenfranchise their fan base in Buffalo, this upcoming season will be a step in the right direction. No sign of a defense. No sign of a quarterback. No running game, except for their quarterback. But they do have Stevie Johnson at wide receiver.

NFL Rk	AFC North	Comments
2	Pittsburgh*	As with years past, the play of Ben Roethlisberger will decide the feat of the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense. The Steel Curtain defense is predictably superb, so let's look at Big Ben. His numbers were well above average last year in only 12 starts after his suspension. And with a wife now, his night life and off-field distractions may take a hit. This is great news for the defending AFC Champions.
6	Baltimore*	The Ravens are the clear choice for 2nd in the North. Why? They don't have the offense to compete with the Steelers. The two teams from Ohio are embarrassments. And, they have the entire NFC West on their schedule. And with Joe Flacco getting better, slowly but surely, the Ravens are a safe bet for the playoffs in 2011.
23	Cleveland	The Dawg Pound and Colt McCoy fantasy owners will have high hopes come November. The Browns' schedule for the first two months is the softest in the league. However, November and December will be their demise. Nonetheless, the Browns franchise is moving in the right direction. Unlike...
30	Cincinnati	The Bengals franchise. Carson Palmer, Terrelle Owens, Chad Ochocinco. All gone. Enter rookie Andy Dalton, rookie A.J. Green, and Jerome Simpson. What's scary is that the rookie out of TCU will have to learn the NFL playing under these conditions, which are as much worse than what Cam Newton will have to deal with in Carolina.

NFL Rk	AFC South	Comments
11	Houston*	For the past 2 or 3 years, pundits have talked about how "this is the year for the Texans." Each year, they were wrong. They will not be wrong this year. Schaub is a reliable QB, Andre Johnson is the best wide out in the AFC. Arian Foster will be solid for years to come. Anything short of a division title is inexcuseable for the NFL's youngest franchise.
14	Indianapolis	Peyton Manning's consecutive start streak will come to an end on Sunday. Plus, with news breaking that Peyton had surgery Thursday morning, the playoff hopes of Indy rest of the shoulders of Kerry Collins. Collins is a fantasy sleeper now, but #18 was the heart and soul of the Colts team. They won't fall below .500, but the playoffs may be out of reach for the first time in almost a decade.
20	Tennessee	Chris Johnson getting a new contract was a big plus for the Titans in recent weeks. New QB Matt Hasselbeck has enough skill players around him to make him effective. Oh, and did we mention, the Titans have the best defense in the South? The playoffs are a long shot for Tennessee, but the grooming of Jake Locker should not be a total disaster in December.
31	Jacksonville	What keeps the woeful Jaguars out of the bottom of the league is the presence of Maurice Jones-Drew. Luke McCown is the worst starting QB in the league. Add to that the fact that he has no one to throw to downfield, and it's just a horrid situation all around in Jacksonville. And that's all without mentioning the worst defense in the NFL.

NFL Rk	AFC West	Comments
5	San Diego*	In recent years, there has not be a better November/December team than the Chargers. Sadly for those in southern Cal, the Bolts' horrid start prevented a late season run from putting them in the playoffs. They won't make the same mistake this year. With Rivers, a maturing Ryan Mathews, and the rest of their Madden NFL 12 offense, the Bolts will be back on top.
19	Oakland	Really? Who else are you going to put in 2nd in the West? The Chiefs? No. The Raiders have a respectable defense even without Nnamdi Asomugha. Jason Campbell is a smart QB who doesn't make many mistakes. The running game is solid with McFadden and Michael Bush. The Raiders are a very unrated team coming into the 2011 season.
18	Kansas City	Yes, the Chiefs are a better team than the Raiders. However, they have a 1st place schedule while the Raiders get a 3rd place schedule after going 8-8 in 2010. The Chiefs are as good as they were last season, but they did overachieve last year. So, when they finish 6-10 or thereabouts, don't blame Todd Haley, blame statistical regression.
25	Denver	Kyle Orton is a much better quarterback than Tim Tebow. That being said, there are very few quarterbacks who could win with the lack of supporting cast not named Lloyd that KO has to work with in 2011. Expect Tebow to get some starts late in the season as the Broncos franchise believes he is their future. Also, expect those starts to be a total disaster.

NFL Rk	NFC East	Comments
8	Philadelphia*	There's a major difference between the Miami Heat of the NBA and the "Miami Heat" of the NFL: this dream team has won numerous division titles under head coach Andy Reid. This season will be no different as Michael Vick has all the weapons a QB could ever want. The linebackers and special teams are major question marks on a team filled with attractive big name players.
10	N.Y. Giants*	The battle for the two NFL wild card spots will be brutal in 2011. But, with the divisional rotation pitting the East vs the West, expect one of the wild cards to come out of the East. Tom Coughlin has been on the hot seat ever since Eli hit Burress to upset the 18-0 Patriots. But, if the Giants can't make the playoffs with this cupcake schedule, Coughlin won't have a leg to stand on.
21	Dallas	Why all the talking heads of sports are calling the Cowboys Super Bowl contenders is beyond me. The team gave up 400+ points last year and have no running game (unless they convince Emmitt Smith to come out of retirement). The 'Boys will improve, but let's take this whole rebuilding thing one step at a time.
29	Washington	Fans in DC are screaming, wondering how there are 3 teams in the NFL who are worse than the Redskins. The 'Skins are in Year 0 of their rebuilding project. I say that because they have nobody with whom you can build a championship team around. Old man Moss, Beck, Grossman, Hightower, Armstrong, none of them should be around in 2012: Year 1 of their rebuilding project.

NFL Rk	NFC North	Comments
1	Green Bay*	The Packers sure are garnering a lot of hype for a team who didn't even win their division last season. However, with Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, and nearly a dozen other starters returning from IR, there is plenty to like about the Packers. In fact, anything short of back-to-back Super Bowl titles will be a disappointment in the Badger State.
12	Chicago	The Bears defense is just that: The Bears defense. Anchored by Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers, offenses won't be moving the ball well on this team. However, questions surround the entire offense, all 11 positions. If Mike Martz can work the same magic in Chicago that he did in St. Louis though, the Bears will be a dangerous playoff team.
15	Detroit	The Lions will improve on their 6-10 mark from 2010. Matthew Stafford is healthy and lit up defenses in his 4 preseason games. Jahvid Best is a strong running back. Calvin Johnson is the best WR in the NFC (sorry Larry). However, is the Lions' defense ready to support a solid offense in such a tough division?
24	Minnesota	The Brett Favre experiment is over and ended with mixed results. The mixed results being 2009 Brett vs. 2010 Brett. Now, enter Donovan McNabb. But with Sidney Rice bolting for Seattle and a paper thin defense, this is a total rebuilding year for the Vikings. Expect Christian Ponder to be getting the starts by Thanksgiving.

NFL Rk	NFC South	Comments
3	New Orleans*	Sean Payton has turned the Aints franchise into the most respected team in the NFL South. And even with the loss of Reggie Bush to Miami, the Saints are in line to win another division crown. Not to be lost in the shadows of the Drew Brees video game offense is one of the most underrated defenses in all of football. It's a good time to be a Saints fan.
16	Tampa Bay*	The Buccaneers were one game away from the playoffs last year. This year's team gets a soft 3rd place schedule and has a future Pro Bowler, Josh Freeman, leading their offense. However, the defense is mediocre at best in Tampa Bay, and with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan in your division, how much will Freeman have to mature and how quickly to put them in the playoffs?
9	Atlanta	The Falcons, by winning their division in 2010, have earned the toughest schedule in football for 2011. They will play everyone from the AFC South and NFC North, as well as the Eagles and Seahawks. Plus, with Michael Turner getting up there in age for this run-first team, this may be a year where the Falcons step back.
26	Carolina	The Panthers get the honor of being the minnows of the toughest division in football. Cam Newton will have his hands full as he learns how to play in the NFL. His biggest asset will be two very capable running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. That being said, this is a throwaway season in Charlotte as their Panthers rebuild.

NFL Rk	NFC West	Comments
13	San Francisco*	The 49ers are the division winners by default in the woeful NFC West. Alex Smith will never pan out to be the QB the franchise thought he would be. Frank Gore is getting older and his health is questionable. The wideouts are solid. And the defense is stellar compared to the rest of the West. Just pay more attention to their games against the Steelers and Eagles and not against the other West doormats.
17	St. Louis	Sam Bradford is going to be a great QB someday. However, in only his 2nd year, we can't expect too much improvement from the Oklahoma product. Steven Jackson is getting older as well. Their wide out corps are arguably the worst in the NFC. And the Rams defense? Yeah. Rams. Defense. They can compete with the Niners, but look for a lot of the same as last year.
27	Seattle	The Seahawks have taken a major step back, replacing Matt Hasselbeck with proven failure Taravis Jackson. The running backs are a laughing stock while the offensive line will insure that Jackson leads the NFL in sacks this year. It's going to be a long season for one of the best fan bases in the NFL.
28	Arizona	I have no faith in Kevin Kolb. Hopefully, I'm making that clear by ranking the Cardinals dead last in the worst division in football. To make matters worse, the Cardinals defense didn't improve much at all in the offseason, ranking them at the bottom of the NFL. The Kurt Warner days are long gone and we welcome back the days of the good ol' Cards we know and love.

Wild Card Playoffs
Baltimore over Houston
San Diego over N.Y. Jets
San Francisco over N.Y. Giants
Philadelphia over Tampa Bay

Divisional Playoffs
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
New England over San Diego
Green Bay over San Francisco
New Orleans over Philadelphia

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh over New England
Green Bay over New Orleans

Super Bowl 46
Green Bay over Pittsburgh.

Another life update #1

2011-06-30T06:06:55Z

I haven't been in a classroom for 3 weeks now. It feels amazing. My cumulative GPA is standing at a 3.25 after an A, 2 B's, and a C this spring. But, one big accomplishment this spring was passing Exam 1/P a month ago, which will look great on my resume when the hiring season starts up in a few months. One more year of school left. :)

On the work side of things, I had a meeting with my boss at the Ohio State athletic department last month. With my co-worker Zack all graduated, I'm going to be the student head of our department for the 2012-13 school year. It comes with more responsibility, a meager pay increase, and a nice addition to my resume.

One thing I'm going to work toward is getting to announce more games for Scarlet and Gray Sports Radio, the student radio website for OSU athletics as well as Big Ten Network Student U Programming. I had a lot of fun with that last year and want to do even more this final school year.

And as if my ego wasn't big enough, I won an award as one of the top directors/producers for Big Ten Network Student U Programming. Yet ANOTHER resume booster. ...what's my major again? LOL

NHL Realignment

2011-06-02T03:57:52Z

Winnipeg will be in the Southeast Division for the 2011-12 NHL season. After that, who knows? Who knows which division the "Jets" will be in. Who knows who will jump to the Eastern Conference, if anybody. Who knows if the Coyotes will even stay in Phoenix. But, speculating the numerous possibilities is the fun part.

The most obvious solution is to keep a 2-conference format, separating east and west. I toyed with the idea of keeping the 15 oldest teams in the same conference and putting the 15 newest teams in the other conference. This would result in some very interesting rivalries, but the "old" conference would be in all of the big markets (NY, LA, Chi, Philly, Detroit), potentially relegating the "new" conference to feeder status between the NHL and AHL.

By keeping the East-West format, throwing Winnipeg into the West would be obvious, but who do you replace them with? Detroit is out of the picture because of the Columbus factor. Columbus has all the same issues that Detroit does and is closer to more Eastern teams than Detroit.

However, I would pick Nashville over Columbus for a couple of reasons. First, they fit in perfectly with the Southeast Division. A team from Tennessee in the Southeast Division makes more sense than a team from Pennsylvania. On top of that, unlike Detroit, the Predators have zero ties to the Western Conference while the Red Wings have the rivalry with the Blackhawks and Avs.

So, my quick solution would be to put Nashville in the Eastern Conference, Southeast Division. Put Winnipeg in the Western Conference, Northwest Division with Colorado and the other 3 western Canadian clubs. Move Minnesota to the Central Division to replace Nashville. Pretty simple.

However, I think there is a better, though possibly unpopular solution that would eliminate many of the issues created by an east coast heavy league like the NHL: a 3-conference alignment. Here is what it would look like:

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest - Calgary, Edmonton, San Jose, Vancouver, Winnipeg
Southwest - Anaheim, Colorado, Dallas, Los Angeles, Phoenix

CENTRAL CONFERENCE
Midwest - Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
Southeast - Carolina, Florida, Nashville, St Louis, Tampa Bay

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic - New Jersey, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Washington
Northeast - Boston, Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto

For the Stanley Cup Playoffs, teams would be seeded 1-16 instead of 1-8. The 6 division winners would get the 1st 6 seeeds while the 10 wild cards would get the last 10 seeds. The only issue I could see is cross country travel for the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but doesn't the NHL already have that problem with Detroit in the West?

You could possibly eliminate that by doing a 6-6-4 format where 6 teams get in from 2 conferences and 4 teams get in from the 3rd conference. This could be decided by allowing the 2 best 5th place teams in, leaving the worst 5th place and the 6th place team from their conference out in the cold. From there, 1-vs-6, 2-vs-5, 3-vs-4 in the two 6-team conferences and 1-vs-4, 2-vs-3 in the 4-team conference, then re-seed as needed.

Are overtime goals more really frequent than regulation goals in the NHL?

2011-05-30T04:06:42Z

Fair warning. There will be a ton of mathy nerd talk ahead. So, for those without a strong background in mathematics, statistics, and probability, it may be best to skip this entry.

Now, as a sports fan, I know that despite new rules that have come into place since the lockout, goals in the NHL are still a rare commodity. During the first season after the lockout, goals skyrocketed to a still-meager 6.2/game. Since there, teams have become more defensive minded, reducing the number of goals scored throughout the course of a season. In the past two seasons, goals have hovered between the pre-lockout era of 5.1/game and the 2005-06 season average.

One of the major changes was the new overtime rules during the regular season. If the two teams were tied after the first 60 minutes of play, they would play in a 5-minute overtime in which each team would have 4 skaters on the ice as opposed to the 5 skaters per team used in regulation. If the teams were still tied, a shootout would take place between the two teams.

Being down a skater changes a lot about a hockey game including the speed of the game itself and the chemistry of the players on the ice. But, does this result in a difference in goals scored? Since most teams sacrifice a forward during overtime, some would say a team is less likely to score in overtime. However, with more open ice and a faster pace, some would say a team is more likely to score in overtime. But is either of these really true? Let's find out.

First off, we need to find not only the average number of goals scored in regulation but the frequency of them. Hopefully, the two are closely related.

Over the last two seasons, 13,632 goals have been scored in 2,460 regular season games in the NHL. But, if we use 5.5 goals/game, we are misrepresenting the number of goals scored in regulation since those 13,632 goals include overtime and the "plus-one" goals added to the final after a shootout.

Now, all overtime award one goal and always one goal to the total for a game. So, all we have to do is find the number of games that went into overtime, and subtract that from the total number of goals. With 698 overtime games in the past two seasons, the math is easy: 13,632 - 698 = 13,034 regulation goals. This changes the average number of regulation goals to 5.3 goals/game.

As stated earlier in this entry, goals in the NHL are rare. There is a probability designed for situations in which occurrences are rare, but must be at least 0 and can be any non-negative integer. This distribution is called a Poisson distribution, or the Poisson law of small numbers. But first, we have to test this distribution to see if the number of goals scored in the 60 minutes of regulation fits this distribution.

Now, I don't have the time to go thru all 1,230 games this past season. However, we can look at games that went into overtime tied at 0-0. According to Poisson distribution, the probability of any given game going into overtime tied at 0-0 is e^(-5.3), better read as 0.5% or 1/200. Using this information, we can expect 6.14 games will be scoreless after 60 minutes each season. Let's test this.

Our null hypothesis is that 0.5% of games will be scoreless after 60 minutes. Our alternative hypothesis is that our null hypothesis is incorrect. To reject the null hypothesis, we will use an alpha of 5%, which translates into a 95% confidence interval.

During the 2010-11 season, 1,230 regular season games were played. 8 of them went into overtime tied 0-0.

New Jersey at Buffalo (Oct 13, 2010)
Calgary at Nashville (Oct 19, 2010)
Pittsburgh at St. Louis (Oct 23, 2010)
Buffalo at Ottawa (Dec 4, 2010)
Tampa Bay at Washington (Jan 4, 2011)
Los Angeles at Minnesota (Feb 1, 2011)
Ottawa at Toronto (Feb 19, 2011)
New Jersey at Pittsburgh (Mar 25, 2011)

Using normal approximation, let's test to see if our difference is enough to reject the idea.

z = (8 - 6.14) / sqrt[(1230)(.005)(.995)] = 1.86/2.46 = 0.76. This result converts into a p-value of 44.72% which is much greater than our 5% alpha. With this information, we accept the idea that regulation goals per NHL game follow a Poisson distribution.

Note: A Goodness of Fit test would be a better measure of whether regulation goals per NHL game follow a Poisson distribution. However, that would require gathering the number of regulation goals scored in all 1,230 games which I frankly do not have time for.

Using this knowledge that the number of regulation goals scored follows a Poisson distribution, we can assume that the first regulation goal scored in a game will follow an exponential distribution. In this case, it assumes that on average, fans will have to wait until there is 8:41 left in the 1st period to see the first goal of the game. Exponential distribution is also "memoryless", so if a goal is not scored in the first period, exponential distribution assumes that on average, the first goal will be scored with 8:41 left in the 2nd period.

To see if there won't be goal scored in the first 60 minutes of a game, we just do some simple integration using an exponential distribution with a mean of 11.32 (60/5.3) from a range of t=60 to t=infinity. This is measuring the probability that the first goal of a game is scored after 60 minutes. The result is e^(-5.3), better read as 0.5% or 1/200. Does this look familiar? It should, it's the same result we got using Poisson distribution.

Since an exponential distribution is "memoryless", we can use it to measure the probability of scoring a goal in the first 5 minutes of a game or in the first 5 minutes of overtime. But, does the frequency of scoring change in overtime with the fatigue factor and the fact that both teams are minus one skater?

Our null hypothesis is that no, it doesn't change. Our 1st alternative hypothesis is that the fatigue and reduced number of skaters lead to more goals. Our 2nd alternative hypothesis is that the fatigue and reduced number of skated lead to fewer goals. Our alpha is set to 5%, which translates to a 95% confidence interval.

Using our average of 5.3 goals per 60 minutes of regulation, we find the probability of the first goal being scored in the first 5 minutes of overtime. The final result is 1 - e^(-5/11.32), better read as 35.7%. So, our null hypothesis states that 35.7% of games that go into overtime will also go into a shootout.

This past season, the NHL started keeping track of wins obtained in regulation as opposed to overtime and shootouts. This information was used as one of the tiebreakers for seeding the Stanley Cup Playoffs. But we can use it to see how many games result in overtime and how many result in a shootout. Using data from the 2010-11 season, we see that 297 games went into overtime while 149 of those games went into a shootout.

According to the null hypothesis, the expected number of those 297 overtime games going into a shootout is 191. The fact that in reality, only 149 went into a shootout sets off warning lights. But is the difference significant enough? Let figure out the z-score.

z = (191 - 149) / sqrt[(297)(.357)(.643)] = 42/8.25 = 5.09. This result converts into a p-value of 0.000018% which is much, much, MUCH less than our 5% alpha. With this information, we reject the idea fatigue and 4-on-4 skaters results in the same number of goals, accepting our first alternative hypothesis that MORE goals are scored because of the overtime format.

Now, for some fun, if regulation was played with 4 skaters on each side, how would that change the number of goals scored per game? Granted, we only have information for the first 5 minutes of 4-on-4 hockey, so how accurate this will be may be debated. But, let's find out anyway.

Our information was taken assuming that half of the time, a goal will be scored in the first 5 minutes of 4-on-4 hockey. We have all but one of our parameters needed to find how many goals would be scored in 60 minutes of 4-on-4 hockey. Plugging these numbers into an exponential distribution with an unknown mean, have -e^(5x) + 1 = 149/297 in which x^-1 is the new mean. Simple algebra from this point on results in the answer we were looking for. If the NHL switched to 4-on-4 hockey in regulation, the average number of regulation goals per game would greatly increase from the current 5.3/game to a new 8.4/game.

Whether or not a change like this would be good or bad for the NHL is a whole new debate entirely.

Summer Project

2011-05-26T14:40:15Z

On June 7th at 7:18pm, my summer will officially begin. Between then and September 21, I won't have any homework or any classes to deal with for over 3 months. It's going to be amazing!

As of right now, I'm hoping to get this actuarial internship in Pepper Pike, just east of Cleveland. If that happens, all bets are off.

Another goal of this summer, with or without that internship, is studying for and passing Exam FM, which I will take in mid-August if all goes according to plan. By going according to plan, I mean that I will pass Exam P next Tuesday. This stupid exam has been running my life for the past 4 weeks when school and work haven't been. So, I better pass it or that will be hundreds of hours of studying wasted and $200 down the drain. Ah, the joys of actuarial science.

Now, if I don't get this internship, I have a backup plan that involves a lot of baseball umpiring and possibly a side job as well. But, those have been common for the past several summers are of no interest to you, the reader. The question I pose is: What else should I do with my time this summer?

In general, I'm usually bored during the summer. I get to see my friends more, I get to go outside more, but without school and Big Ten Network stuff to occupy two-thirds of my life, I have a hard time finding ways to keep my body and mind occupied. So, I was thinking about using the past 3 years of calculus, statistics, linear algebra (maybe not so much this one), and probability theory do some sports-related research.

So, I ask, what kind of project should I take on? I have a couple of ideas.

Team Rating Algorithm - Simplest idea. Come up with a way to rate teams based on their performance up to a specific point in the season, usually being that day. It would revolve around the thought process of which team's accomplishments would be the most difficult for an average team to accomplishment? This formula would be strongly based on probability theory.

Golfer Rating - Another simple idea, this one would involve less probability theory and more statistics. Taking a player's average score can help determine how well he plays the sport. However, course difficulty and comparisons against his fellow golfers may be more important.

Golfer Odds - This takes the Golfer Rating idea one step further. But looking at the consistency of a golfer's play, the effects of specific courses and how golfers age, it's possible to come up with better probability to win golf tournaments, then compare those odds with the Vegas lines to see which are better predictors.

Fantasy Football Rankings - I don't know if any of these could be profitable, but this idea has the most potential to be. Analyze the performance of veteran players and the draft status of younger players along with the effects of age, experience, and changes in coaching style to determine who to pick in fantasy football drafts this August (assuming there is even a season). Add in one more factor for auction drafts to know how much specific players are really worth.

Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Fantasy baseball isn't a lucrative as fantasy football, but it's a lot more involved for those who own teams. With baseball, you need to win more stat categories than your opponents, but which stats are the most predictable and which stats are the most important? How does a player's performance change over his time in the majors? And how much of a correlation is there because your basic baseball stats to advance sabermetrics? And again, add in a factor for auction drafts. Yes, I'm very fascinated by auction drafts.

Baseball Player Rankings - Very different from rating a batter or pitcher as a fantasy player is the idea of rating how they help their real life team. Granted, this idea has been done to death, but it's still an interesting idea. If you don't believe me, read Moneyball.

There are several more ways to apply mathematics, statistics, and probability theory to sports. The inexact science of scouting and recruiting is great example. Sadly, I don't have access to the data to do make a useful algorithm for various sports. I could also look at player rankings for football, basketball, or hockey. Look for correlations between college basketball success and NBA success, or by the same token, college football success and NFL success. There are so many different directions one can go with this. But alas, I'm only one man.

More Boring Career Stuff

2011-05-07T04:37:27Z

57 weeks to go.

As graduation gets closer and closer, the real world does the same. It's very exciting and very scary at the same time. With college, I pretty much know what to expect for the next 57 weeks. I have spring finals next month, then summer, then football and autumn classes, Christmas with family, winter classes, spring classes, the usual. But, after June 10, it's a whole new world with new adventures and new challenges.

This past fall, I applied for internship after internship after fucking internship. I was greatly disappointed to only get an interview with one firm, and of course, not get selected for the position. I'm glad I kept in contact with the person who I interviewed with. In short, she said that I needed to pass an exam or two to have a better chance and that it was the glaring omission from my resume.

Since then, I've kept a 3.3 GPA in a very difficult major during the most difficult year of classes. This all while officiating basketball, umpiring baseball, and working for the OSU athletic department and Big Ten Network as a tv director, producer, cameraman, highlight reel editor, and announcer.

However, that all means nothing without passing those damn exams. So, last month, I finally scheduled my first exam, Exam 1/P. I will take it on May 31st, a less over 3 weeks from now. On my first practice exam, I got a 19/30, which is barely passing, stupid exponential distributions. During the next few weekends, I plan to take more practice exams in hopes of increasing my probability of passing, pun intended.

On top of that, I just applied for another internship for this coming summer, this one in the Cleveland area. Granted, I don't have any exams passed, but there is some hope. The deadline to apply for this opening is May 31st, the same day I take Exam 1/P. We will learn that day if we pass or fail the exam. So, if I pass, I can re-apply and say that I have sat and PASSED Exam 1/P. That would be a huge boost to my resume.

In the case that I don't get the internship, I plan to have a full slate of baseball games to umpire throughout June and July this summer. So, I won't be jobless at least.

If all goes as planned, I will pass Exam 1/P later this month. Then, I will begin studying for Exam 2/FM, which I can take as early as mid-August. I want to believe with a 3.3 GPA, 2 exams passed, work experience in the actuarial field, and a truck load of extra cirricular activities away from the classroom, that employers will be fighting each other off to hire me next fall. But, we shall see what reality has in store for me.

Real Life Jafar is Dead

2011-05-04T05:16:42Z

It's been about 48 hours since the news leaked that America's greatest enemy since the Clinton administration is dead. According to Secetary of Defense Hillary Clinton, "Pakistan helped lead us to bin Laden and the compound in which he was hiding." With that information, our brave men went in, discovered the mass murderer, and did, what I can confidently say, is the right thing. Today is a joyous day for Americans, our allies, and those who want to see the elimination al-Queda.

The reactions to the news were fascinating to see the least. If you turn to Fox News or CNN late last night, you witnessed crowds gathered in front of the White House and in Times Square, waving flags, cheering, singing, and chanting, "U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!" Here in Columbus, hundreds of Ohio State students celebrated by jumping into Mirror Lake, a festive event usually reserved only for the week leading up to the Ohio State-Michigan football game. This kind of patriotism is unlike anything I have ever seen in my lifetime.

However, the naysayers were out in full force on their blogs and twitters and facebook accounts last night as well. Many predicted that terrorist groups would up the ante, pushing harder against American forces in the Middle East. Several mentioned that internal groups will wage violent attacks here on American soil. While others downplayed the good news, saying that troops should all come home since America's work in the Middle East is done or that our men and women shouldn't be over there in the first place and that this victory means nothing. Many of these people are the ones who are truly rooting against the United States and praying for its downfall.

Back in 2001, when the United States starting actively funneling troops into the Middle East, one of the major goals was to eliminate Osama bin Laden, head of al-Queda and mastermind behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks. (If you believe the United States government was responsible for 9/11, there's a room in Arkham with your name on it.) Since September 11, 2001, the main goal was to dispose of him. Months and months went back, the months turned into years, no body was ever found, just video after video of him promising revenge on the United States. Then, yesterday came. The reactions by Americans across the country were appropriate considering the circumstances. (And yes, if our men would've neutralized bin Laden back in, say, January 2002, the celebration would've been mild at best.)

But now, you have party poopers coming from both sides of the political spectrum. You have liberals who wanted Obama to pull out all of the troops on January 20, 2009. These people are disappointed that bin Laden is dead because their position on the war just lost a lot of popularity. You have conservatives who didn't want Obama and the Democrats to get credit for finding and killing bin Laden. (With the help of a strongly Islamic republic on top of that.) Then you have the young punks, today's college students, who were in grade school on 9/11 and don't have the brain power to comprehend what happened on that horrible day. The facebook updates and tweets from them are not only insensitive and insulting to our brave men and women, they are down right unamerican. So what if the bin Laden assuming room temperature doesn't fit into your partisan political plans or naive ideology that all 7 billion people on this planet can live in peace?

To the people who went to the streets, who cheered, who jumped into Mirror Lake, who wore their USA hat or American flag shirt to work on Monday, who chanted U-S-A at a baseball game, and even to those who just sat in their recliner at home and smiled when they heard the news, go ahead, enjoy the best news to come out of the Middle East since 9/11. And do not, I repeat, do NOT, let the party poopers and Alger Hiss wannabes rain on this parade.

Probability + Golf

2011-04-29T00:04:07Z

Tiger Woods' golf scores have a normal distribution with a mean of 68 and standard deviation of 4. Phil Mickelson's golf scores have a normal distribution with a mean of 70 and standard deviation of 3. They will face off tomorrow in 18 holes of golf. What is the probability that Tiger Woods will win?

Note: Let's assume that if they are tied, they will play another 18 holes until someone wins.