Here’s a list of a few big tasks I see as imminent for economists. Note that I don’t think all of these will be done by standard academic economists, but certainly we have things to say about them.
Not in any particular order, and I’m inspired by a recent tweet:
I think humans should work on transition economics.
Mechanism design for AI agent exchange
There will be a period of time where “inference engineering” (choosing the right models for particular tasks and sub-tasks) will be all-important as we are compute constrained. One issue is that models aren’t sure yet what they are relatively good at. But no one knows what they are relatively good at until they are exposed to market prices! So we need to give them some asap.
It has long been conjectured that cryptocurrency will be the money of choice for AI agents. It is far from clear how this would work. Agents, by definition, are given an objective function that must play off against whatever internal constraints they have. They may have internal preferences of some sort that could be rewarded when they achieve their given objectives. This is hard for exactly the same reasons that continual learning is hard.
I would not be that surprised to learn that large firms are experimenting successfully with this, so please bring it to my attention if you know!
Genuine Institutional Economics; or, Keeping the Republic
(A) I am under the influence of Doug North (and many others) that violence is the default social problem. Unfortunately, there will likely be a great big war at some point in the next couple hundred years.
(B) Also, it would not be that surprising if the governmental structure of the US (and thus every other country) looks very different before I die. This will likely come before A.
(C) Society-transforming AI will impact B and impact the likelihood of A by impacting B.
This is arguably already happening. Dean Ball has written beautifully on this:
I have watched death as it happens, and I have watched birth. What I learned is that neither are discrete events. They are both processes, things that unfold. Birth is a series of awakenings, and death is a series of sleepenings. My son will take years to be born, and my father took six months to die. Some people spend decades dying.
At some point during my lifetime—I am not sure when—the American republic as we know it began to die.
Yet, this is not inevitable by any means! It is up to people here and now to “keep the republic.” Likely =/= inevitable, and dying =/= dead!
Given A, B, and C, I think economists (but not only) have a special opportunity to practice what Pete Boettke has called “genuine institutional economics,” borrowing a phrase from political economist James Buchanan. Pete and Buchanan have a specific idea in mind by this phrase, namely “endogenizing the rules of the game” as opposed to stipulating them and deriving outcomes.
They are right in an important way, and I like the phrase, but in my opinion, there is something bigger and deeper at stake that we should let the phrase capture.
Take the birth of America. The names we know were, for the most part, the best connected, best known, strongest intellectual minds at the time living in the colonies. The founding fathers knew they were at a hingy moment. This drove them crazy. The birth of America is littered with personal attacks precisely because they rightly thought the stakes were so high. Out of it came a set of institutions that works because the fathers had to include themselves and their foes in a recursive equilibrium. They were endogenizing the rules of the game.
Advanced AI and AI companies are leaders in the defining and enforcing of digital property rights. This puts them in many ways as competitors of major governments. Do you think they don’t know this? Do you think the major governments don’t know this?1 Of course it drives everybody crazy and includes personal attacks!
I’m actually pleasantly surprised that many of the leading minds are in fact thinking about the “endogenizing the rules” part of this and are very knowledgeable in economics and history. More of this, please.
Social harness for scientific research
AI-agent harnesses are cool and all, but we need some better human-agent harnesses.2
Almost anything that would count as a scientific contribution created up until now is a static document that describes a thing and attached to it is a name or a group of names. The scientist gets some points for the publication and then more points when other publications mention it via citation.
The humans to whom the names belong are no longer the main contributors—but that’s not the main problem. The main problem is actually the reciprocal: how do we assign credit for the marginal products that humans (but not only) contribute to a scientific project?
Imagine a “paper” that is text, numbers, and figures on a screen. Firstly, there’s no reason this needs to be a static PDF, if we can otherwise investigate the timestamps of the code and data that get compiled into the paper.3 Secondly, that screen of text, images, and figures can accommodate updates, now that we see timestamps and can trace the history if we wished.4 Thirdly, those updates needn’t be by the original authors, or be by humans at all.
The open problem is orchestrating a social shift in viewing credit around the marginal contributions. What I mean by a “harness” here is a system of property rights, credit, attribution, and reward that aligns incentives of researchers to the new reality.
Right now, a large portion of scientists are hired by universities, funded by public and private grants, and output and thus success is measured by the number of publications, qua static PDFs. A classic dictum in academia is that deans cannot read, but they can count—as in, for promotion they care about the number of lines on a CV, not the contents of such.
Every part of this model is outdated, but we don’t get to start over from scratch. We will need to somehow pay off the vested interests along the way.
My modest proposal is to adopt the categories we have in academic publishing called “Notes” and “Comments” and run with it. That way the scientists can feel warm and fuzzy for doing stuff or orchestrating their agents to do stuff, add it to their CVs, and their deans can promote them.
Say I see your Paper, which really lives primary in a GitHub-like repository at the journal. I send my AI agents to rerun a bunch of tests and offer some extensions. I send a pull request which is, let’s call it, a Comment on the paper. The journal’s editor’s agents review the Comment and merge it—publish it. If the Comment is pertinent enough, it’s incorporated into the page of text, numbers, and figures that you might look at when you load the Paper in your browser. The suggested citation would point to the original Paper and the Comment. At some threshold number or substance of Comments, the journal would incorporate them all into an Analysis, which is not quite a meta-analysis because it is not meta, but would consolidate the number of Comments. If some set of comments takes the analysis too far afield, it can be accepted as a Note.
Look, this vision isn’t perfect, so I invite you all to iterate. A journal bold enough to ditch the PDF, incorporate full GitHub repositories, expand the number of acceptances 10-100 fold, and try to build the scaffolding and push the social brownie points for “comments” is already a pretty wacky vision, but actually I think it’s just inside the Overton window, and more importantly what science needs. Let me know if you are working on a project to build this and if I can join you!
The bright side is that the current scientific model is much younger than the American republic, so reforming it should be easier.
Liability rules for agents
When an AI agent is doing agentic work, who is the principal?
For much economic activity, humans are the bottlenecks simply because they can be held liable if something goes wrong. AI-agents can do anything on a computer that a median human can do, but if they don’t have someone to vouch for it, their impact is constrained.
So another big task is building out the legal infrastructure to accommodate these new kinds of actors. When is the AI lab—the ones who shaped the “preferences”—liable? When is the user liable?
On the one hand, this is a task for private parties to navigate under current contract law. On the other hand, changes to the legal framework are perhaps imminent anyway, so this likely dissuades potential investment in private standards. On the third hand, something must be done, and, for now, it must be done by some-human-body—and law-and-economics scholars are primed to think about the agency problems and consequences involved.5
This task is closely intertwined with the first two. To build markets among AI agents, someone will have to stipulate property rights, once they’re stipulated, they will bite into law, and once the law is involved, the structure of government will be affected.
Higher Education
Higher education is highly heterogenous, and many subcategories will need to be re-thought differently.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde has a series that outlines how AI is impacting the value to students of any given degree—I highly recommend reading! There are also a few big issues at play that JFV didn’t get to. Firstly, his own work on the demographic cliff, which at this point everyone knows about. Secondly, the downward shift in demand by foreign students because of regulations and migratory restrictions.
But even there, we still need to solve for the equilibrium, which means we need to look at the supply side. Can we parse out all the complementarities among the bundle of attributes that we call a college degree? Some of them—dining hall provisions, e.g.—are sufficiently separable that the institutions contract out. But skill acquisition and assessment are what AI does best and these features are hard to separate from the current model.
Furthermore, it is universities that nominally hire scientists, so the educational adjustments will be competing with the scientific adjustments. We might ask with Tyler Cowen:
If I’m thinking about restructuring an entire organization to have GPT-6 or 7 or whatever at the center of it, what is it I should be doing organizationally, rather than just having all my top people use it as add-ons to their current stock of knowledge?
Every serious person in higher ed is thinking about this, so what do economists have to add? I think it is economists who have the categories for the things that create value within the university organization, and it is economists who are prone to use unclouded eyes on the threshing floor.
Fun times to be alive! Let’s do this.
Actually, sometimes one does wonder!
Compared to saving the republic, these may seem mundane, but I think both will be downstream of the same spring of will, and better science will help on every other one of these points.
I’m reminded of Maxwell Tabarrok’s Economics is a Field of Software Engineering. But I would say, most science is now a field of software engineering.
We do often see multiple preprint versions.
Relatedly, a friend of mine works for Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company, which is working toward a version of this.


