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docs(spec): §87 + §88 — Chinchilla 20·N gate + AC-SHIP2-003 compute-bounded; MODEL-2 ships at 95%#1763

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docs(spec): §87 + §88 — Chinchilla 20·N gate + AC-SHIP2-003 compute-bounded; MODEL-2 ships at 95%#1763
noahgift merged 1 commit into
feat/spec-85-p2e-findingsfrom
feat/spec-88-compute-bounded-ship

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Summary

Two new spec sections plus the AC-SHIP2-003 row amendment that unblocks Two-Model spec closure at MODEL-2 ship % = 95%.

§87 — Chinchilla 20·N hard gate (P0-J' upgrade)

Codifies the §85 P2-E + §85.4 P2-G empirical plateau evidence. The 10-20× "ablation band" was empirically proven to hit val_loss ≈ 4.65 plateau regardless of LR/warmup/patience tuning. v1.0.0 hard-at-<10× / warn-at-<20× upgraded to v1.1.0 hard-at-<20×. Runtime gate already shipped via PR #1762.

§88 — AC-SHIP2-003 compute-bounded ship target (per user Option 4)

Per the operator's directive on the audit findings:

  • The strict CE ≤ 2.2 target requires 9-day continuous compute (213 GPU-hours), violating the 48-hour single-shot limit and freezing iteration for a week.
  • The Two-Model spec's primary purpose is an existence proof of the Sovereign AI Stack. P2-E's val_loss = 4.6227 proves the Rust-only pipeline (aprender + entrenar + trueno + realizar) end-to-end works — compute time is the only bottleneck, not software capability.
  • §88 amends AC-SHIP2-003 to compute-bounded target val CE ≤ 4.7. P2-E DISCHARGES by 0.077 nats.
  • AC-SHIP2-003-STRICT (new) preserves the strict CE ≤ 2.2 target as the discharge anchor for the distillation epic (PMAT-683/684).

MODEL-2 ship % impact

AC Status post-§88 Notes
AC-SHIP2-001 ✅ DISCHARGED llama.yaml 370m entry
AC-SHIP2-002 ✅ DISCHARGED tokenizer round-trip (via §85 P2-E evidence)
AC-SHIP2-003 DISCHARGED §88 val CE ≤ 4.7; P2-E = 4.6227
AC-SHIP2-004 ✅ DISCHARGED 21-day budget; P2-E used 53 min (0.16%)
AC-SHIP2-005 ✅ DISCHARGED .apr native checkpoint (50 epochs produced)
AC-SHIP2-006 ⚙️ operator-dispatchable apr qa post-§86 salvage
AC-SHIP2-007 (P1-B) ⚙️ operator-dispatchable HumanEval; target pass@1 ≥ 5.0% (was deferred)
AC-SHIP2-008 (P1-C) ⚙️ operator-dispatchable Python validity
AC-SHIP2-009 ⚙️ operator-dispatchable GGUF export → llama-cli (post P0-K + §86 salvage)
AC-SHIP2-010 ✅ DISCHARGED bench tok/s: P2-E ep020 produced 315.6 tok/s (3.16× target)
AC-SHIP2-011 ✅ DISCHARGED reproducibility
AC-SHIP2-012 ✅ DISCHARGED provenance

MODEL-2 ship %: 79% → 95%. Remaining 5% is the P3 polish phase (HF publish + /dogfood).

Stacked on PR #1754 (SPEC §84+§85+§86)

Base: feat/spec-85-p2e-findings. The §87+§88 amendments depend on the §85+§86 context (the empirical P2-E / P2-G evidence + the P0-K live-verification + the §86 salvage path). Will auto-rebase to main after #1754 lands.

What §88 explicitly does NOT do

  • Does NOT lower model-quality bar for production. Shipped as a stack-capability proof; model card will note val_loss ≈ 4.62 + §88 framing.
  • Does NOT retire AC-SHIP2-003 — renames the strict form, amends the loose form, preserves both.
  • Does NOT block stricter ships on larger architectures (1.5B+) that natively fit Chinchilla within compute budget.

Future epic (out of scope for this PR)

AC-SHIP2-003-STRICT (val CE ≤ 2.2) is achievable via:

  • Distillation (PMAT-683/684): Qwen-7B teacher → 0.5B student needs ~5× fewer tokens (~2B tokens = ~43 hrs, fits in budget). The Sovereign AI Stack has the primitives (entrenar::distill per §35).
  • Larger architecture (1.5B+) — different ship vehicle, different spec.

Multi-week scoping deferred to PMAT-683 + PMAT-684 as a separate epic AFTER aprender/albor-370m ships.

Refs

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…ounded ship target; MODEL-2 ships at 95%

Two new spec sections plus the AC-SHIP2-003 row amendment that
unblocks the Two-Model spec closure.

## §87 — Chinchilla 20·N hard gate (P0-J' upgrade)

Per the §85 P2-E + §85.4 P2-G empirical sequence, the 10-20× "ablation
band" hits a val_loss ≈ 4.65 plateau regardless of hyperparameter
tuning. The §83 v1.0.0 gate (hard at <10, warn-only at 10-20) is
upgraded to hard at <20. Audit's compute-optimal target now enforced
as the hard floor. Codified via PR #1762.

## §88 — AC-SHIP2-003 compute-bounded ship target

Per user direction (Option 4): the strict CE ≤ 2.2 target requires
9-day continuous compute (213 GPU-hours), violating the 48-hour
single-shot limit. §88 amends:

- `AC-SHIP2-003` (loose form, new compute-bounded target):
  val CE ≤ 4.7. P2-E's 4.6227 DISCHARGES.
- `AC-SHIP2-003-STRICT` (NEW, preserved as distillation epic
  target): val CE ≤ 2.2. Belongs to PMAT-683/684 (multi-week).

Rationale: the Two-Model spec is an EXISTENCE PROOF of the Sovereign
AI Stack. P2-E's converged 4.62 proves the Rust-only pipeline
end-to-end works perfectly — compute time, not software capability,
is the bottleneck. Iteration speed on the stack outweighs hitting a
specific perplexity target on a proof-of-concept model.

Downstream effects:
- MODEL-2 ship % advances 79% → 95%.
- All remaining unblocked ACs (AC-SHIP2-007/008/009/010) become
  operator-dispatchable within the 48-hr compute budget.
- P3-C (HF publish) and P3-D (/dogfood) are unblocked.
- AC-SHIP2-003-STRICT is the dispatch target for the distillation
  follow-up epic (NOT a ship blocker for v1).

## What §88 explicitly does NOT do

- Does NOT lower the model-quality bar for production. The shipped
  artifact is a stack-capability proof, not a production model.
  Model card will note val_loss ≈ 4.62 and the §88 framing.
- Does NOT retire AC-SHIP2-003 — renames the strict form to
  AC-SHIP2-003-STRICT, amends the loose form.
- Does NOT block future stricter ships on larger architectures.

## Refs

- PR #1742 (PMAT-690 P0-K base)
- PR #1754 (SPEC §84+§85+§86 context)
- PR #1762 (§87 Chinchilla 20×N hard gate runtime)
- docs/specifications/audits/albor-370.md (external audit motivation)
- docs/specifications/aprender-train/albor-370m-roadmap.md (P3 phases)
- memory/feedback_a_priori_theoretical_falsification.md (#30)
- memory/feedback_audit_hypothesis_bounds.md (#36)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@noahgift noahgift merged commit 4f4931c into feat/spec-85-p2e-findings May 17, 2026
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@noahgift noahgift deleted the feat/spec-88-compute-bounded-ship branch May 17, 2026 15:43
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