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Update clades with 22A, 22B and 22C#933

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trvrb merged 4 commits intomasterfrom
clades-update-22abc
Apr 28, 2022
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Update clades with 22A, 22B and 22C#933
trvrb merged 4 commits intomasterfrom
clades-update-22abc

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@trvrb trvrb commented Apr 27, 2022

Overview

This elevates the following Pango lineages as labeled clades:

  • BA.4 as 22A
  • BA.5 as 22B
  • BA.2.12.1 as 22C

Each of these still has the parenthetical "(Omicron)" designation as these are all still considered to be the Omicron variant by the WHO.

Here, we are following updated Nextclade designation rules that call for a clade to labeled if any of the following are met:

  1. A VOC or VOI is recognized by the WHO and given a Greek letter label
  2. A clade reaches >20% global frequency for 2 or more months
  3. A clade reaches >30% regional frequency for 2 or more months
  4. A clade shows consistent >0.05 per day growth in frequency where it's circulating and has reached >5% regional frequency

with additionally (2,3,4) requiring the clade to show multiple mutations in S1 or particular mutations of known biological relevance

Evidence of each of the three clades hitting these criteria is provided below:

BA.4 as 22A

  • Current view of BA.4 suggests consistent growth in Gauteng (0.09 per day) with it reaching 78% frequency on April 7, but not yet enough data in KwaZulu-Natal.
  • We place BA.4 at 14% regional frequency in Africa.
  • BA.4 possesses spike mutations L452R, F486V and R493Q relative to BA.1 and BA.2 and additionally posses del69/70 relative to BA2.

omicron-south-africa-ba4-ba5_logistic-growth-transformed-axis-ba4

BA.5 as 22B

  • Current view of BA.5 suggests consistent growth in Gauteng (0.07 per day) with it reaching 11% frequency on April 7 and consistent growth in KwaZulu-Natal (0.11 per day) with it reaching 56% frequency on April 7.
  • We place BA.5 at 6% regional frequency in Africa.
  • BA.5 possesses spike mutations L452R, F486V and R493Q relative to BA.1 and BA.2 and additionally posses del69/70 relative to BA2.

omicron-south-africa-ba4-ba5_logistic-growth-transformed-axis-ba5

BA.2.12.1 as 22C

  • Current view of BA.2.12.1 suggests consistent growth in multiple US states (generally around 0.1 per day, but CA may be faster at 0.15 and NY may be slower at 0.06). Its frequencies are greater than 20% in a number of states as of April 7.
  • We place BA.2.12.1 at 6% regional frequency in North America.
  • BA.2.12.1 possesses L452Q and S704L relative to BA.2.

omicron-us-ba2 12 1_logistic-growth-transformed-axis

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trvrb commented Apr 27, 2022

This elevates the following Pango lineages as labeled clades:
- BA.4 as 22A
- BA.5 as 22B
- BA.2.12.1 as 22C
Each of these still has the parenthetical "(Omicron)" designation as these are all still considered to be the Omicron variant by the WHO.
@trvrb trvrb force-pushed the clades-update-22abc branch from 887a956 to f6387d8 Compare April 27, 2022 23:17
trvrb added 3 commits April 27, 2022 16:49
The clades inheritance PR had trailing tabs for a number of entries. This commit removes these extraneous tabs.
This streamlines definitions and makes it clear that 22A, 22B and 22C all descend from 21L.
@trvrb trvrb merged commit 6a605b3 into master Apr 28, 2022
@trvrb trvrb deleted the clades-update-22abc branch April 28, 2022 00:04
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