Real-time dashboard tracking quantum computing's approach to breaking cryptography.

Live dashboard: jschulman.github.io/quantum-qanary

The dashboard uses a traffic-light system based on observable milestones:

• GREEN — No quantum computer has factored anything beyond 21 bits using Shor's algorithm
• YELLOW — Credible hardware demonstrations or government commitments signal accelerating timelines
• ORANGE — Quantum factoring reaches ~100 bits, or insurance carriers begin requiring PQC readiness
• RED — RSA-512 or 128-bit ECDLP broken by quantum computer (the canary is dead)

Two parallel ladders track quantum progress toward breaking cryptography:

RSA Ladder — Tracks quantum factoring from 15-bit (achieved 2001) through RSA-2048 (Q-Day). The canary rung is RSA-512: once quantum computers reach this level, breaking RSA-2048 becomes an engineering problem, not a physics problem.

ECDLP Ladder — Tracks quantum attacks on elliptic curve cryptography. The canary rung is 128-bit ECDLP: this triggers the blockchain migration race, as Bitcoin and Ethereum keys use secp256k1 (256-bit).

The interactive calculator implements Mosca's inequality: if your data needs to stay secret for X years, and migrating to PQC takes Y years, and quantum computers break current encryption in Z years, start now if X + Y > Z.

collectors/           Python scripts fetching live data
  arxiv_quantum.py      arXiv paper counts (daily)
  github_pqc.py         PQC library activity (weekly)
  alert_checker.py      Alert level computation (weekly)
normalizers/
  qday_distance.py      Weighted Q-Day distance estimate
data/                 Curated JSON data files (trigger files)
  alerts/               Alert status and triggered milestones
  factoring/            RSA and ECDLP canary ladders
  hardware/             Qubit records and roadmap targets
  adoption/             PQC deployment matrix
  blockchain/           Chain PQC readiness
  funding/              Government and private investment
  milestones/           Historical timeline
docs/                 Static dashboard (GitHub Pages)
  index.html            Single-page dashboard
  style.css             Dark mode styles
  dashboard.js          Chart.js visualizations + Mosca calculator
  data/                 Copy of data/ served to browser
.github/workflows/    Automated collection schedules

Automated: GitHub Actions run collectors on schedule (daily/weekly/monthly) and commit results.

Manual (trigger files): Edit any JSON file in data/, push, and the dashboard rebuilds automatically. Key trigger files:

• data/alerts/status.json — Set override field to manually change alert level
• data/factoring/records.json — Add new factoring milestones
• data/hardware/qubit_records.json — Add hardware announcements
• data/adoption/pqc_deployments.json — Update PQC deployment status
• data/blockchain/pqc_status.json — Update chain readiness

See METHODOLOGY.md for detailed documentation of how alert levels, Q-Day distance estimates, and risk components are calculated.

MIT